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January 2/3 Event - Disco., Nowcasting, and Obs.

wxmeddler

By wxmeddler,
in Mid Atlantic

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:33 PM, snow. said:

There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday

 

12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF

 

Yeah man, it's doing it at 6z in the omega fields for sure. I'll post more when I look more closely. Great trends today!

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:33 PM, snow. said:

There are signs of this back to even west of DC...latest GFS kind of matches the idea of the latest rap and is showing much more of a pivot and backbuild..than the models were showing yesterday

 

12zGFS now has DC in snow until around 3am, with probably around 0.35" QPF

Verbatim on the GFS, the snow would start sticking on grass *before* 10 pm for DC northward.

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:41 PM, gymengineer said:

Verbatim on the GFS, the snow would start sticking on grass *before* 10 pm for DC northward.

 

yes..I'm curious if we hit 40 today, though with low pressure to our west we could always spike later this afternoon

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:43 PM, interstate said:

The 12z GFS just sets up for disappointment...  We are talking about shifts of 20 miles that would have huge ramifications.

 

we could always be dryslotted/shift east...I don't think we are set up for disappointment....DCA now has 17 consecutive events of 0.1" - 1.4" with 15 below an inch....none of us would be surprised if we get a dusting or even less

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:46 PM, snow. said:

you might be...will be a gametime decision..Parkton has always been a good location

 

cool, thanks.

 

  On 1/2/2014 at 3:48 PM, WxUSAF said:

You've still got elevation.  

 

true. 31 at home (not my station).

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:39 PM, leesburg 04 said:

Me and the Winchester boys are tugging on this thing as hard as we can...positive thoughts for DC and Wes

 

  On 1/2/2014 at 3:47 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

We'd better tug harder.

 

Yeah. We are in some trouble with this one I think. At this point I just wanna see the streak end at DCA. I will say temps are going to bust low for sure.

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:48 PM, snow. said:

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

MInd boggling that there are only 2 storms with a 1 in front of it.

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:48 PM, snow. said:

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

and an avg of .46" :(

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ThePhotoGuy

ThePhotoGuy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:48 PM, snow. said:

Here are the last 17 accumulating snow events for DCA (since 1/26/11),....I'm pretty sure we are properly conditioned to be let down...Sure..there will be some brief disappointment, but we know the drill

 

1/28/11 - 0.6"

2/9/11 - 0.1"

2/21-22/11 - 0.4"

3/27/11 - 0.2"

1/9/12 - 0.6"

1/20-21/12 - 1.1"

2/11-12/12 - 0.3"

12/26/12 - 0.2"

1/24/13 - 0.4"

1/25/13 - 0.4"

1/28/13 - 0.1"

2/1/13 - 0.2"

2/2/13 - 0.2"

3/6/13 - 0.2"

3/25/13 - 1.4"

12/8/13 - 0.6"

12/10/13 - 0.9"

 

Interesting list, anyone have one for BWI?

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/2/2014 at 3:51 PM, snow. said:

The freezing line currently runs roughly from NW baltimore burbs through IAD...DC proper is 34-35..who knows about DCA...they could be up to 37

That is about where I am sitting ~10 miles south of the District.

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