Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:54 AM, Solo2 said: One of the SREF members gives Boston 52". Seriously. Good thing SREF is usually full of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:56 AM, Bob Chill said: Vort looks better for sure. Not worried about the other panels too much. It will probably just revert back to its 0.25"-ish solution at 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:57 AM, snow. said: It will probably just revert back to its 0.25"-ish solution at 12z.... I'm good wirh that. Someone will get blued ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:57 AM, snow. said: It will probably just revert back to its 0.25"-ish solution at 12z.... Looks a little better for you guys. I need the whole thing to be 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks wetter for dc and faster with the cold air. Both positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:54 AM, Solo2 said: One of the SREF members gives Boston 52". Seriously. Probably same one that gives me 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 1:57 AM, snow. said: It will probably just revert back to its 0.25"-ish solution at 12z.... On 1/2/2014 at 1:59 AM, Bob Chill said: I'm good wirh that. Someone will get blued ne. yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM gives DC ~0.25" and BWI around 0.3" Around 0.4" for Phin and points NE. Getting closer to the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:11 AM, WxUSAF said: NAM gives DC ~0.25" and BWI around 0.3" Around 0.4" for Phin and points NE. Getting closer to the SREF mean. Still not great West though. I am afraid of a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's a good run. Not much else I can add. Temps look ok and precip looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:11 AM, WxUSAF said: NAM gives DC ~0.25" and BWI around 0.3" Around 0.4" for Phin and points NE. Getting closer to the SREF mean. I think based on the wxbell stuff that dc will be more than .3 and BWi around 0.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:12 AM, usedtobe said: I think based on the wxbell stuff that dc will be more than .3 and BWi around 0.40" That's what I'm seeing Wes. It's a good run even if overdone. DC 2" odds went from 25% to 26% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM falling in to line with other concensus... I think a definitively reasonable expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This might be another one of those storms where we ignore the fact that every model has us above freezing for much of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:15 AM, snow. said: This might be another one of those storms where we ignore the fact that every model has us above freezing for much of the event Snowing but not sticking sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If we get less than an inch of snow, the NAM wins. Wrap your mind around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:12 AM, usedtobe said: I think based on the wxbell stuff that dc will be more than .3 and BWi around 0.40" my maps have 0.25" contour tickling DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:16 AM, MN Transplant said: If we get less than an inch of snow, the NAM wins. Wrap your mind around that. how so?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:15 AM, snow. said: This might be another one of those storms where we ignore the fact that every model has us above freezing for much of the event DCA more likely to happen than BWI NAM verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:16 AM, snow. said: my maps have 0.25" contour tickling DC wxbell maps seem really wet compared to ncep but ncep isn't out past 33 for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:15 AM, Bob Chill said: That's what I'm seeing Wes. It's a good run even if overdone. DC 2" odds went from 25% to 26% The boundary layer is pretty warm pretty late, I think DCA is 37 at 03Z. That would waste a lot of precip as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:18 AM, Ian said: wxbell maps seem really wet compared to ncep but ncep isn't out past 33 for me nam_total_precip_east_13.png Whoa, shows over .8 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 DCA - 0.22" BWI - 0.31" that matches my maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:18 AM, Ian said: wxbell maps seem really wet compared to ncep but ncep isn't out past 33 for me nam_total_precip_east_13.png 1" of QPF in NE MD?!? Not even close to what NCEP shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:20 AM, PhineasC said: Whoa, shows over .8 here... something's wrong with it.. not sure what. the panels have nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:20 AM, PhineasC said: Whoa, shows over .8 here... 0.39" for APG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:18 AM, Ian said: wxbell maps seem really wet compared to ncep but ncep isn't out past 33 for me [] Uh, is all of southern New England over 1" and Boston over 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:17 AM, snow. said: how so?... Seems to be the only model consistently with less than an inch for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:16 AM, wxmeddler said: Snowing but not sticking sucks. yup. we haven't done these 0.25" events very well the last couple of years with the borderline temps we've had. precip-wise i remember the 2nd feb '10 storm and how we can fair ok with a good vort pass and quick enough pivot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 On 1/2/2014 at 2:19 AM, usedtobe said: The boundary layer is pretty warm pretty late, I think DCA is 37 at 03Z. That would waste a lot of precip as rain. yeah..that is something many have been ignoring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.