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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold


Hoosier

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My forecast Sunday - Wednesday currently.

 

  • Sunday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 14.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -6.
  • Monday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -4. Blustery.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -17.
  • Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -1.
  • Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -12.
  • Wednesday A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 14.

GFS Monday morning.

 

gfs_t2m_east_37.png

 

Tuesday Morning

 

gfs_t2m_east_45.png

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00z MEX has a high of -8 here on Monday.  If it verifies it would be the 3rd coldest high to occur in Lafayette. 

 

Edit:  -10 at IND!

 

Edit 2:  Hopefully we don't end up with a cheap midnight high

The 12z MEX today had a low Tuesday morning of -23 at RFD and -20 at ORD. Wild.

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attachicon.gifTT_TT_PN_156_0000.gif

 

One of the most epic progs you'll see.  That huge whitish area is temps of -30F or lower.

 

Read literally, that would smash the Feb. 1899 record in Dayton (-28) by 7 degrees. I'm willing to say at this point that this is just GEM getting loopy with a multiple sigma fringe event, but that it's going to be something more like 20-year cold, not 100-year cold. That Illinois-Indiana-Ohio corridor has not experienced that kind of extreme cold event in anyone's lifetimes.

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Its a shame that we wont have an ideal raditional cooling night to make this even more intresting but hopefully the CAA is enough to at least threaten some records. Also think MEX guidance may be on the warm side since I'm skeptical of the overcast skies its showing.

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Read literally, that would smash the Feb. 1899 record in Dayton (-28) by 7 degrees. I'm willing to say at this point that this is just GEM getting loopy with a multiple sigma fringe event, but that it's going to be something more like 20-year cold, not 100-year cold. That Illinois-Indiana-Ohio corridor has not experienced that kind of extreme cold event in anyone's lifetimes.

 

 

That's the smart play at this point but if ideal radiating conditions come into play over what will probably be a massive, deep snowpack, all bets are off.

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That's the smart play at this point but if ideal radiating conditions come into play over what will probably be a massive, deep snowpack, all bets are off.

 

I have to think it might be overdoing CAA. Look at how "warm" we are up in Michigan during the event. We always get some moderation from the lakes but the amount of airmass moderation over the entire state makes me think it's overdoing advection at this point. Part of this is a little wishcasting because I was in Ohio during the Jan 1994 event and I can say that infrastructure, houses, etc. in that part of the country are simply not built to withstand that sort of cold. -35 would be fun to watch far away but over such a wide area in this part of the country would have some pretty serious consequences.

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  • Sunday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -3. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Monday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -15. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -21. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -4. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -13. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

My point forecast (50 miles SE of the Twin Cities).  A high of -15 with wind will be brutal, schools will probably close.  Coldest since Feb 1996.

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  • Sunday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -3. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -20. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
  • Monday Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -15. West northwest wind around 15 mph.
  • Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around -21. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
  • Tuesday Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -4. West wind 5 to 10 mph.
  • Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around -13. West southwest wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast after midnight.

My point forecast (50 miles SE of the Twin Cities).  A high of -15 with wind will be brutal, schools will probably close.  Coldest since Feb 1996.

 

 

The last double-digit below zero highs at MSP were Feb 1-3, 1996.  GFS MOS is currently -14 for both Sunday and Monday (might be a midnight high on Sun keeping it a bit higher).

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