daddylonglegs Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thinking the last real cold here was Christmas 2000...we hit -26F that nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 2m output is insane...even colder than the 00z run. Chilly. At least 66 consecutive hours below zero, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Chilly. At least 66 consecutive hours below zero, I think. Screen Shot 2014-01-01 at 12.23.27 PM.png That's just crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GRB MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| -13 -6|-19 -3|-11 8 LSE SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| -14 -6|-21 -11|-25 -3|-12 9 MSN SUN 05| MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| -7 -5|-18 -10|-22 -6|-13 8 MKE MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| -10 -5|-15 0| -7 10 RAC MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| -11 -6|-17 -3| -9 9 LSE and MSN stay below zero for at least 72hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice... School will be canceled next week...at least Mon/maybe Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It's just for fun obviously, but the 12z GGEM metrogram has IND dipping close to -40º C/F next Wed morning. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Indianapolis&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us And, has about 1.60" liquid equivalent snowfall for the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's a list of below zero highs for Lafayette. I used the airport from 1944-present and the longtime COOP from 1887-1943, with the exception of the January 1963 reading which was obtained from the COOP. Should say that the records go back to the winter of 1887-1888 and I don't have data from the early months of 1887. -10: 12/24/1983 -9: 1/24/1963 -9: 1/15/1972 -7: 1/20/1985 -7: 1/18/1994 -6: 2/9/1899 -6: 1/16/1977 -6: 1/10/1982 -5: 12/25/1983 -3: 1/17/1977 -3: 12/23/1983 -3: 12/22/1989 -3: 1/15/1994 -2: 2/8/1895 -2: 2/12/1899 -1: 2/10/1899 -1: 1/8/1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Amazing stats Hoosier. Not one calendar day between 1899 and 1963 that did not get above zero, then six of them in the 1980's. Now another 20 year stretch without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oddly enough, this looks like a more southern event for the eastern portion of this sub-forum. Nothing outstanding cold-wise for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 never seen anything like this...usually the text output in the extended is tame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 IND Long Term AFD updated a few ago: Tried to bold the phrasing about "the potential to be colder than models indicate" but bold didn't come through. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ISSUED AT 221 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ROUND TWO OF THREE WINTER STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. BUT...THIS STORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO THE CHALLENGE IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET AFTER WE RECEIVE ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN BRINGING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE LAST ONE. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN AIR MASS TO EXTEND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CANADIAN TERRITORIES SOUTHEASTWARD STRAIGHT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. PRETTY MUCH TOOK THE REGIONAL ALL BLEND AND MASSAGED THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD AS PER THE ECMWF DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT WITH SNOW COVER AND A 1060 AIR MASS INTO MT THEN 1040 INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NUMBERS TO BE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN MODELS INDICATE EVEN THOUGH THE TRENDING TOWARDS THIS TYPE OF THE SOLUTION CONTINUES. SO...THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THIS PERIOD IS SOME MORE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 worst climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 worst climo Better protect your palm trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not sure if Tuesday or Wednesday morning will be colder around here. The core of the cold air aloft moves off to the east by early Wednesday but it may be a better radiational cooling setup then if latest runs hold. Wednesday morning should also have a bit of a head start coming off of an extremely cold Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Most of the legendary cold days around here only had snow cover of about 2-4". If the current system and weekend/early week system pan out then we are looking at the potential for much deeper snow in time for the arctic blast not to mention the upstream snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Not sure if Tuesday or Wednesday morning will be colder around here. The core of the cold air aloft moves off to the east by early Wednesday but it may be a better radiational cooling setup then if latest runs hold. Wednesday morning should also have a bit of a head start coming off of an extremely cold Tuesday. I'd have to think Wednesday morning sees colder temperatures by a bit (especially if you can get some snow down at some point before then) but Tuesday morning may be more brutal with winds staying up some. I wonder how cold wind chills can get Tuesday morning across parts of IL, IN and OH. Models unanimously show air temps below -10F and winds staying up around 10-15 knots. If temps closer to -20F verify like most models show for Tuesday morning we could be looking at wind chills of -30 to -40F by my crude math...possibly colder if some lucky spots get close to -20F and keep winds up near 15 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Whoa gonna be a nice gas bill this month. Rare to have wind like that around here when it gets that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LOT FOR TEMPS THINKING MAX TEMPS WILL BE REACHED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ASTEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL. GUIDANCE HAS 925MB TEMPS AT -10C TO -20C BYLATE AFTN..WHICH IS NOTHING COMPARED TO THE -25C TO -30C EXPECTED BYDAWN ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO FOR ALL LOCATIONS...EXPECTAREAS ALONG THE LAKE IN NW INDIANA. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEPTHOSE LOCATIONS RIGHT AROUND 0. WITH FRESH SNOW ON THEGROUND...COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BEING LOWER...BUT GIVEN CLOUD SKIESAND WINDS 10+MPH...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO REMAIN ONTHE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. MIN WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -20F ARE EXPECTED.EXTENDED...MONDAY AND TUESDAYCOLD CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHSLOWLY ROTATES THROUGH. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED MONDAYINTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS BELOW -30C. HIGHS MONDAY WILLLIKELY REMAIN BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT ONCE AGAIN FOR AREAS NEAR THE LAKEACROSS NW INDIANA. WIND CHILLS OF -20F TO MAYBE -35F ARE CURRENTLYFORECAST. ONCE AGAIN...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY BE EVEN COOLER THANFORECAST.IF YOU THINK THATS COLD YOU SHOULD SEE MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURESHIFTS EAST AND THINKING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THIN AFTER MIDNIGHTFROM WEST TO EAST. THIS ONCE AGAIN COULD CERTAINLY LEAD TO MUCHCOLDER AMBIENT TEMPS. RIGHT NOW HAVE -10 TO -20F FORECAST WITH WINDCHILLS AROUND -40F. A LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT TEMPSWILL STILL BE BELOW 0. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURESPREADS OVERHEAD. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BITTERLY COLDWITH -10 TO -20F AND WIND CHILLS AROUND -30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice. Wind chills of -40 are very difficult to come by on the new scale. That is brutally cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Oh wow DVN has our point down to -18 for tomorrow night. Lowest point I've seen here in a few years. Point highs for Mon/Tue are -8/-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 IND already has a high near -2º for here next Tuesday. Nice. P&C for the airport... Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -12.Tuesday: Partly sunny and cold, with a high near -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 LSE says. Coldest temps since 96 with winds to 20mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 18z 4km NAM looks very cold for Fri am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Considering the HRRR seems to spit out really cold numbers, I can't wait to see what it will be like next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Considering the HRRR seems to spit out really cold numbers, I can't wait to see what it will be like next week. Really really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It sure was a cold December and looks like January will continue to be the same. Any thoughts on possible record ice jams or potential flooding come spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It sure was a cold December and looks like January will continue to be the same. Any thoughts on possible record ice jams or potential flooding come spring? In a way, this winter has the potential to be even more blockbuster than 93-94. Recall that December 1993 was a torch up until the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 18z GFS has the 486 thickness contour poking into NW IL at 9z (3AM CST) on Monday 1/6. It also pushes the cold air in faster...so that, for many areas in the Midwest, Mon/Tues will probably be the coldest days, not Wed. Of course that's just based on this one model run. Also, on this model run, 850 temps bottom out at around -28c in Chicago. This is a bit milder than the 00z Euro from last night, which showed widespread -30c and colder 850s over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 18z GFS has the 486 thickness contour poking into NW IL at 9z (3AM CST) on Monday 1/6. It also pushes the cold air in faster...so that, for many areas in the Midwest, Mon/Tues will probably be the coldest days, not Wed. Of course that's just based on this one model run. Also, on this model run, 850 temps bottom out at around -28c in Chicago. This is a bit milder than the 00z Euro from last night, which showed widespread -30c and colder 850s over the area. Something I noticed on the GFS is that it has the coldest air below 850 mb...say around 925 mb-950 mb and mixing would be very shallow if that's correct. Also noticing the models spitting out some light precip as the colder air comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Something I noticed on the GFS is that it has the coldest air below 850 mb...say around 925 mb-950 mb and mixing would be very shallow if that's correct. Also noticing the models spitting out some light precip as the colder air comes in. I noticed that too and it probably makes sense. Maybe a nice squall line developing on the leading edge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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