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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold


Hoosier

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I think we had an unofficial reading of like -35F give or take in the 1800s but even -20s don't happen often here. 

 

Edit:  -33 in 1887

 

 

Euro shows you guys having a high of around -10 on Tuesday! Even up here with the lake highs stay below zero on this run. :shiver:

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Was the Euro still showing extreme cold like that with the 00z run?

 

Across the area it showed; -16°- -20° for Monday morning and -18°- -30° on Tuesday morning.

Well if 850s and 925s are at least a few degrees below -20 and skies are clear one of those nights, those temperatures are doable. The coldest night in January 2009 I believe had 850s of -19 at DVN.

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WITH THE POLAR VORTEX ARRIVING SUN NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WITH
THIS AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE IN THE -30C RANGE BY 12Z MON...SOME 3
TO 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WHEN 850MB TEMPS OF
2 TO 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OFTEN PRODUCE RECORD
LOWS. IF MODELS ARE EVEN CLOSE...SUN NIGHT INTO TUE TO BE A VERY
COLD PERIOD. THIS ALSO WITH SOME GRADIENT NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH EVEN MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
APPEARING NEEDED TO START NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS SAT THRU SUN...THEN TRENDED TOWARD COLDER
OF GUIDANCE FOR SUN NIGHT THRU TUE LOWS/HIGHS. THE LOWS OF AROUND
-20F IN THE GRIDS SUN/MON NIGHT MAY STILL BE SOME 5F TO 10F TOO
WARM IF THE STATISTICS OF EXTREME COLD OUTBREAKS HOLD.

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I know it's still 6 days out...but if things come together perfectly, you have to think the all-time record low of -27 at RFD (1/10/1982) is one of the more likely records to be broken, relative to other locations in the Midwest.  

 

This is one of the relatively "mild" all-time cold temps, given its location.  

 

In fact, Chicago's all-time low temp is actually the same as Rockford, which you wouldn't expect given recent history (-27 on 1/20/1985).  

 

As Hoosier said earlier, this illustrates the fact that many of the extreme arctic outbreaks in the 1980s were advective in nature, which reduces the impact of UHI.  Plus, of course, UHI wasn't as much of a factor at ORD 30 years ago.

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