Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS text extracted data in the 156-180 hour range for LAF. 2m temps highlighted in blue. Max/mins highlighted in red. 156 01/07 00Z -6 -9 289 12 0.00 0.00 501 525 -20.5 -33.9 1032.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 4 -6 5.9 162 01/07 06Z -9 -11 276 11 0.00 0.00 501 526 -21.9 -32.9 1033.7 22 017FEW027 CLR CLR -6 -9 3.9 168 01/07 12Z -13 -15 284 12 0.00 0.00 504 531 -22.0 -32.6 1036.9 56 015BKN030 CLR CLR -9 -12 5.5 174 01/07 18Z -7 -10 284 9 0.00 0.00 508 537 -17.0 -31.4 1039.8 9 017FEW027 CLR CLR -7 -13 7.9 180 01/08 00Z -7 -9 271 5 0.00 0.00 515 545 -13.5 -22.7 1041.1 0 CLR CLR CLR -4 -7 4.0 Our streak without a below zero temp looks like it's going to go bye bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GEM shows a 1050mb high in KY at Day 8. Verbatim, I imagine that would be an all-time record high pressure for that state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GEM shows a 1050mb high in KY at Day 8. Verbatim, I imagine that would be an all-time record high pressure for that state. The record for Kentucky is 30.98" which is about 1049 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Our streak without a below zero temp looks like it's going to go bye bye. I feel like we got gypped on that one earlier this month, but yes. 12z MEX has -7º for next Tuesday morning. A cool 24º below climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GGEM has 850 mb temps colder than -35C over LAF at 168 hours. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro looks nasty still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro looks nasty still Doesn't look as cold as earlier runs, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS text extracted data in the 156-180 hour range for LAF. 2m temps highlighted in blue. Max/mins highlighted in red. 156 01/07 00Z -6 -9 289 12 0.00 0.00 501 525 -20.5 -33.9 1032.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 4 -6 5.9 162 01/07 06Z -9 -11 276 11 0.00 0.00 501 526 -21.9 -32.9 1033.7 22 017FEW027 CLR CLR -6 -9 3.9 168 01/07 12Z -13 -15 284 12 0.00 0.00 504 531 -22.0 -32.6 1036.9 56 015BKN030 CLR CLR -9 -12 5.5 174 01/07 18Z -7 -10 284 9 0.00 0.00 508 537 -17.0 -31.4 1039.8 9 017FEW027 CLR CLR -7 -13 7.9 180 01/08 00Z -7 -9 271 5 0.00 0.00 515 545 -13.5 -22.7 1041.1 0 CLR CLR CLR -4 -7 4.0 Maybe not record cold, but cold enough for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Maybe not record cold, but cold enough for me! It's a good signal for some legit cold. And we'll get to enjoy it without a hint of snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GEM shows a 1050mb high in KY at Day 8. Verbatim, I imagine that would be an all-time record high pressure for that state. I'm saving that map showing a 1050mb high and a 947mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a good signal for some legit cold. And we'll get to enjoy it without a hint of snow around. Dude, it's going to snow big right before the cold snap. Believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 right around week till the ice age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is yesterday's 12z ECMWF (December 30th) posted by Ryan Maue. 8-day forecast, valid January 7th, 12z. This shows -20F in Tennessee. This would be shades of 1899 or 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 One good thing about this is however much snow everyone ends up with its gonna stick around and not melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Local TV met's showing lows near -10° for Monday already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 GFS coming around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Local MET already going with 8 on monday with low of -6 and 5 on tuesday with low of -11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Local TV met actually had -20 and -23 for the QC for Tue/Wed morning. I don't think I would have been as bullish that far out, but the signals are very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Local morning TV wx hack had 38 for a high here on Monday. I almost spit out my coffee. Chad trains them well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Given the snow tomorrow, the potential snow several days from now and the model signals, I think there's a very real chance that LAF sees a day or two with a high temperature below zero next week. The last time it happened was on January 18, 1994 and it's only happened a little over a dozen times around here since the early 1900s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Local morning TV wx hack had 38 for a high here on Monday. I almost spit out my coffee. Chad trains them well. Big change from Chad's 6pm, when he had 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Given the snow tomorrow, the potential snow several days from now and the model signals, I think there's a very real chance that LAF sees a day or two with a high temperature below zero next week. The last time it happened was on January 18, 1994 and it's only happened a little over a dozen times around here since the early 1900s. Damn. Going there, huh? Awesome. Big change from Chad's 6pm, when he had 24. Nah, the morning guy's forecast was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Damn. Going there, huh? Awesome. Nah, the morning guy's forecast was colder. Check this out. Now it's important to note that these are raw 2m temps, not MOS, and we're only seeing 6 hour intervals. OTOH, MOS won't capture the magnitude of the airmass this far out as it biases toward climo. The GFS is giving these numbers with 850 mb temps that don't get below the minus mid 20s C and we've seen some models bringing 850 mb temps of -30C or lower in here. Given that and the factors mentioned in the last post, I actually don't think it's that big of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Check this out. Now it's important to note that these are raw 2m temps, not MOS, and we're only seeing 6 hour intervals. OTOH, MOS won't capture the magnitude of the airmass this far out as it biases toward climo. The GFS is giving these numbers with 850 mb temps that don't get below the minus mid 20s C and we've seen some models bringing 850 mb temps of -30C or lower in here. Given that and the factors mentioned in the last post, I actually don't think it's that big of a stretch. lol, wow. But yeah, no I understand the process. Imagine if we could pull a day where it doesn't get out of the double digits below zero... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 lol, wow. But yeah, no I understand the process. Imagine if we could pull a day where it doesn't get out of the double digits below zero... Well then you get into the rarest of rare and even I'm not crazy enough to call for that. It's happened once at the airport and 4 times in 113 years at the WL Coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good God, 00z MEX has -3 for a high here next Tuesday...35 degrees below average. That is beyond insane for a climo-influenced MOS product a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What's interesting about the 00z GFS is that it has extremely cold (although not quite record-breaking) temps at Day 6-7, even without the storm deepening rapidly to the east. Imagine what would happen if the storm did bomb out. Not saying the latter scenario is likely...but to me, it just goes to show the extent of the cold in Canada that is available to be tapped. The dense air mass just oozes down, instead of crashing in all at once. The way it looks now, we'll need to depend on clear skies, light winds, and deep snow pack for the really cold temps, as opposed to advection like in 1982, 1985, or 1994. Just my 2 cents after a quick look at the models tonight. Will be fun to track. Happy New Year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Good God, 00z MEX has -3 for a high here next Tuesday...35 degrees below average. That is beyond insane for a climo-influenced MOS product a week out. That's a keeper...considering the time range, and ode to climo. BTW, if we get this snow...I think we go below zero Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's another keeper. The lightest purple/whitish areas are temps colder than -30F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's another keeper. The lightest purple/whitish areas are temps colder than -30F That would safely set an all-time record for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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