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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold


Hoosier

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That's false, most of the all-time low records for both my area and northern Ontario have been set in February. Toronto shouldn't be any different.

 

Ryan Maue as well, starting to post maps showing the next polar vortex in the medium-long range. I've been reading Ryan's twitter feed by far the most, the best currently. I'm in favor of another PV since that always means a lot of snow for myself (lakes).

 

Same thing here oddly enough. Coldest daytime high ( -6 ) and coldest low ( -24 on 12th of Feb ) were both set in Feb.

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The only thing I have noticed about polar vortex's is this, they are usually followed by a warmup. Its almost as if the arctic "blows it load" so to speak.

 

1994 was followed by a torch like 5 days later, we aren't going to torch, but its going to go zonal for a few days.

 

Just a thought.

I have noticed that too.  It is like a pattern reset button has been pressed.

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I have noticed that too.  It is like a pattern reset button has been pressed.

 

I looked back at 1994 and it wasn't really a torch in Lansing, more so in Detroit.

 

Not much of a torch, I deleted that post after giving it a second look.

 

The euro shows a massive cold outbreak in its 240hr timeframe.... The operational euro is actually quite a bit cooler this weekend and beyond compared to the GFS.

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I looked back at 1994 and it wasn't really a torch in Lansing, more so in Detroit.

 

Not much of a torch, I deleted that post after giving it a second look.

 

The euro shows a massive cold outbreak in its 240hr timeframe.... The operational euro is actually quite a bit cooler this weekend and beyond compared to the GFS.

Nice...  at least we get a break..

 

This evening it was 0F and I thought it was comfortable outside (at least compared to yesterday)...getting acclimated to this. 

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-5°/-10° at UGN. Getting tired of this.

 

Hoping JB and Ryan are wrong about the vortex paying another visit. I know however, until you get past the first 10 days of February, you can still have lows that push -10°.

 

Edit: Bounced back up to -2°. Dewpoint rising too.

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Same thing here oddly enough. Coldest daytime high ( -6 ) and coldest low ( -24 on 12th of Feb ) were both set in Feb.

I read recently in David Ludlum's "Early American winters" that early February has often been the coldest time of the year as by that time Hudson Bay has completely frozen over meaning air masses have less of a chance to modify as they move south.

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Looks like the high will be 1 after a low of -11 at KBTL.. Gives us a daily average of -5 which is a new record for the date and the 2nd coldest ever for the month of January.. The high temp of 1 also set a new daily record and ties the record for coldest Jan high temp. The low temp was a daily record as well.. The old record was -9. Not too shabby..

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I looked back at 1994 and it wasn't really a torch in Lansing, more so in Detroit.

 

Not much of a torch, I deleted that post after giving it a second look.

 

The euro shows a massive cold outbreak in its 240hr timeframe.... The operational euro is actually quite a bit cooler this weekend and beyond compared to the GFS.

There was a torch in mid-Feb 1994 (18th and 19th I believe)  I know some record high were broken with temps in the 50s in the UP.  I was a Tech that year.  We had a 40"+ snow pack that took a major hit.  Superior was frozen (or nearly frozen) over so LES was done for the season.  That was a painful to have to wait for actual system snows when you are used to daily LES!!!

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There was a torch in mid-Feb 1994 (18th and 19th I believe)  I know some record high were broken with temps in the 50s in the UP.  I was a Tech that year.  We had a 40"+ snow pack that took a major hit.  Superior was frozen (or nearly frozen) over so LES was done for the season.  That was a painful to have to wait for actual system snows when you are used to daily LES!!!

I remember that torch. It was followed by a huge snowstorm on the 23rd. I remember Scouts was cancelled that evening.

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I noticed a few things a couple days ago 

 

Unfortunately the RTMA plots on the NCEP site have color tables that are weird. Areas of Lake Huron and Lake Superior, near the deep parts, were at 20. Some of SE Michigan was at -16. Lake Michigan was at -8 to +8. Lake Erie was at -12 to +8. I believe the RTMA has the lake ice cover as an input to the model.

 

post-1182-0-32445400-1389290555_thumb.gi

 

sounding near Toledo---- looks very cold aloft. Perhaps one of the lowest 1000-500 thicknesses ever in Toledo

 

post-1182-0-59444700-1389290922_thumb.pn

 

 

100 knots at 700mb. I don't think I've seen this. ever.

 

post-1182-0-86594700-1389290958_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  • 3 years later...

Here is a recent paper on the January 2014 arctic outbreak.  Although it has a lot of typos and grammatical errors (does anyone edit papers these days??), it's a good read.

06Jan2014.pdf

I never realized how impressive the January 1982 arctic outbreaks were.  On 1/10/1982, 850 mb temps dropped to -34C in southern IL.  Then, a week later, the northern Plans saw an 850 mb temp of -42C.

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