daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I wondered whether Lake Ontario would stay open somewhat due to it's depth. Lake Superior has never froze over I know. Probably the case with Huron as well. Superior and Huron as huge in area, and the winds would keep areas open. ---- If it does get that cold, Brewers - I hope we moderate quickly! Sparta would be like -40F if that happens... I was browsing through the Ft Snelling weather info and they mentioned a report out of Ripley, MN (which is near modern day Brainerd) that showed -56F on the 10th of Feb 1857... good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z Euro 2m temps for 1/6 at 18z. Balmy in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I take it some of you don't pay heating bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's really 18z (noon CST)? Of course it's only a model prog...but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I take it some of you don't pay heating bills. yep, i can see the graph spike now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nah, I have an electricity bill paying fairy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's really 18z (noon CST)? Of course it's only a model prog...but wow. I figured you'd like that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nah, I have an electricity bill paying fairy. I didn't have to pay heat in my last rental...had to open the windows mid winter because the radiator was always blasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I need to dense pack cellulose in my walls...nothing in there right now (i get frost on my walls when its really cold)... Good info on heat loss: About 30 to 40 % of your total heat loss is due to air leakage, another 10% for the ceiling, 10% for the windows and doors, and about 30% for the basement. “You have to tackle the big hunks,” says Orr, “and the big hunks are air leakage and uninsulated basement.” http://thesustainablehome.net/?p=456 We had a blower door test last winter/sealed the house up good...extra cellulose put in the attic. Still need to tackle the basement. euro looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I figured you'd like that image. Thank you sir. You, Hoosier, and I are going to will this airmass down, no matter what it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Off the scale on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Off the scale on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Heating bills are gonna suck, but we had it easy the last few winters so it doesn't bother me that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Just for historical purposes, I kind of hope this Siberian Express pattern verifies. Also, to prove a point. I get tired of hearing people tell me that cold winters "just don't happen anymore". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Off the scale on this one: Hopefully it comes and goes quickly. It will be interesting to see how much snow depth there will be and how much lake ice gain there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Below zero readings for LAF and/or the West Lafayette COOP based off the CPC 6-10 day analog dates (map below). 1963-01-19 1963-01-21: -14 (WL) 1963-01-22: -13 (WL) 1963-01-23: -13 (WL) 1963-01-24: -16 (WL) 1963-01-25: -9 (WL) 1963-01-26: -3 (WL) 1963-01-27: -4 (WL) 1963-01-28: -15 (WL) 1963-01-29: -15 (WL) Snow cover 1-3" 1967-12-28 1967-12-31: -14 (LAF) 1968-01-01: -18 (LAF), -19 (WL) 1968-01-02: -15 (WL) Snow cover 1-2" 1985-12-26 1985-12-25: -4 (WL) 1985-12-26: -5 (WL) Snow cover 1" 1999-01-03 1999-01-04: -9 (LAF), -6 (WL) 1999-01-05: -20 (LAF), -20 (WL) 1999-01-06: -16 (WL) 1999-01-07: -6 (LAF) -7 (WL) 1999-01-08: -5 (WL) Double digit snow cover 2008-01-20 2008-01-20: -1 (LAF), -2 (WL) 2008-01-21: -2 (WL) Snow cover 3-4" 1963-01-13 1963-01-13: -2 (WL) 1963-01-14: -2 (WL) 1963-01-15: -8 (WL) 1963-01-16: -8 (WL) No snow cover 1968-01-02 1968-01-02: -15 (WL) 1968-01-04: -5 (LAF), -2 (WL) 1968-01-05: -6 (LAF), -7 (WL) 1968-01-07: -11 (LAF), -11 (WL) 1968-01-08: -13 (LAF), -11 (WL) 1968-01-09: -10 (WL) Snow cover 2-3" 1999-01-08 1999-01-08: -5 (WL) 1999-01-09: -10 (LAF) 1999-01-10: -11 (LAF), -12 (WL) Double digit snow cover 1994-01-15 1994-01-15: -16 (LAF) 1994-01-16: -14 (LAF) 1994-01-17: -4 (LAF) 1994-01-18: -19 (LAF) 1994-01-19: -23 (LAF) 1994-01-20: -21 (LAF) 1994-01-21: -14 (LAF) 1994-01-22: -10 (LAF) Snow cover 2-4" 1962-01-10 1962-01-09: -4 (LAF) 1962-01-10: -11 (LAF) 1962-01-11: -11 (LAF) 1962-01-12: -9 (LAF) Snow cover 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Off the scale on this one: I've always wanted to visit the Arctic, in the summer! I don't appreciate it barging in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I take it some of you don't pay heating bills. Meh, the really extreme stuff won't last long (if it materializes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Below zero readings for LAF and/or the West Lafayette COOP based off the CPC 6-10 day analog dates (map below). 1963-01-19 1963-01-21: -14 (WL) 1963-01-22: -13 (WL) 1963-01-23: -13 (WL) 1963-01-24: -16 (WL) 1963-01-25: -9 (WL) 1963-01-26: -3 (WL) 1963-01-27: -4 (WL) 1963-01-28: -15 (WL) 1963-01-29: -15 (WL) Snow cover 1-3" 1967-12-28 1967-12-31: -14 (LAF) 1968-01-01: -18 (LAF), -19 (WL) 1968-01-02: -15 (WL) Snow cover 1-2" 1985-12-26 1985-12-25: -4 (WL) 1985-12-26: -5 (WL) Snow cover 1" 1999-01-03 1999-01-04: -9 (LAF), -6 (WL) 1999-01-05: -20 (LAF), -20 (WL) 1999-01-06: -16 (WL) 1999-01-07: -6 (LAF) -7 (WL) 1999-01-08: -5 (WL) Double digit snow cover 2008-01-20 2008-01-20: -1 (LAF), -2 (WL) 2008-01-21: -2 (WL) Snow cover 3-4" 1963-01-13 1963-01-13: -2 (WL) 1963-01-14: -2 (WL) 1963-01-15: -8 (WL) 1963-01-16: -8 (WL) No snow cover 1968-01-02 1968-01-02: -15 (WL) 1968-01-04: -5 (LAF), -2 (WL) 1968-01-05: -6 (LAF), -7 (WL) 1968-01-07: -11 (LAF), -11 (WL) 1968-01-08: -13 (LAF), -11 (WL) 1968-01-09: -10 (WL) Snow cover 2-3" 1999-01-08 1999-01-08: -5 (WL) 1999-01-09: -10 (LAF) 1999-01-10: -11 (LAF), -12 (WL) Double digit snow cover 1994-01-15 1994-01-15: -16 (LAF) 1994-01-16: -14 (LAF) 1994-01-17: -4 (LAF) 1994-01-18: -19 (LAF) 1994-01-19: -23 (LAF) 1994-01-20: -21 (LAF) 1994-01-21: -14 (LAF) 1994-01-22: -10 (LAF) Snow cover 2-4" 1962-01-10 1962-01-09: -4 (LAF) 1962-01-10: -11 (LAF) 1962-01-11: -11 (LAF) 1962-01-12: -9 (LAF) Snow cover 3" Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Polar bears are going to be migrating south to the corn belt by mid Jan. Thinking about trading the F-150 in on a pack of dogs with a sled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Impressive. All but three of those dates had at least one day with a double digit negative temp. So, we got that going for ourselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Someone said in another thread some place that Ice Road Truckers can probably start filming in Wisconsin next week! lol Maybe seals and walruses start showing up in the Great Lakes next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NWS LA CROSSE THE MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASSTHE COMES BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIGSDOWN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THE 30.12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVEWITH BRINGING 850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -37C DOWN INTOTHE REGION WHILE THE 30.12Z GFS STILL HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWNAROUND -30C. SHOULD THIS ECMWF SOLUTION OCCUR...HIGH TEMPERATURESWOULD BE MUCH COLDER AT AROUND -12F ON MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE-20 T0 -30F RANGE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME FLUCTUATING WITH HOW FARSOUTH THIS COLD AIR MAKES IT...BUT REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKEANOTHER PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLYNEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Meh, the really extreme stuff won't last long (if it materializes). No but only exacerbates things considering it has been below normal cold with higher bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Did anyone note the low of -40° at Embarrass this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Did anyone note the low of -40° at Embarrass this morning? Yep, it's in the contest thread. INL hit -37. I think Embarrass could be even colder on Wed morning...a bit chilly to ring in the new year. Of course we'll hear stories about how cold it is in NYC when the ball drops...even if the temp is around freezing. I wonder what the good folks in northern MN think when they see that. I noticed that the 18z GFS backed off a bit on the cold. It's still a rather cold air mass in place here from Days 6-10...although not the intense cold that a few runs have shown. Maybe 10-15 degrees below normal during that period. A lot depends on the storm around Day 5-6...i.e., if it can bomb out and drag the polar vortex down, similar to what the 12z Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Welp, 850 Temps of around - 30 down to Tennessee on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 oh sh*t....is that a tiny spec of -30 near Springfield Ohio? Either way, brutal doesn't even begin to describe that misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Buckeye: That's the good stuff. Send some over this way oh wait.. i just have to go north a half hour and I should be at ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z GFS text extracted data in the 156-180 hour range for LAF. 2m temps highlighted in blue. Max/mins highlighted in red. 156 01/07 00Z -6 -9 289 12 0.00 0.00 501 525 -20.5 -33.9 1032.8 0 CLR CLR CLR 4 -6 5.9162 01/07 06Z -9 -11 276 11 0.00 0.00 501 526 -21.9 -32.9 1033.7 22 017FEW027 CLR CLR -6 -9 3.9168 01/07 12Z -13 -15 284 12 0.00 0.00 504 531 -22.0 -32.6 1036.9 56 015BKN030 CLR CLR -9 -12 5.5174 01/07 18Z -7 -10 284 9 0.00 0.00 508 537 -17.0 -31.4 1039.8 9 017FEW027 CLR CLR -7 -13 7.9180 01/08 00Z -7 -9 271 5 0.00 0.00 515 545 -13.5 -22.7 1041.1 0 CLR CLR CLR -4 -7 4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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