Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2014

[bdgwx]

Oklahoma has only had 12 tornadoes this year. Remind me...what is the record yearly minimum?

[huronicane]

Oklahoma has only had 12 tornadoes this year. Remind me...what is the record yearly minimum?

 

17 in 1988.

 

OUN has 14 preliminary tornadoes for Oklahoma this year.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-2014

[bdgwx]

17 in 1988.

 

OUN has 14 preliminary tornadoes for Oklahoma this year.

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

 

Thanks. I thought it was somewhere in the upper teens. It looks like this year is going to make a legitimate run for the record then.

 

I got the 12 number from the SPC report summary page, but I guess those are just reports so probably not terribly accurate.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2014_annual_summary.html

[huronicane]

Reports are inherently inaccurate. Not every tornado is going to be seen and reported, and not all reports are going to be verified.

[WxKevinM]

Can I use my guess way back as the preliminary score? 1000 Preliminary tors, obviously much less, currently 687 actual via storm report submissions. My projection <820 tors when its all said and done.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

[Chicago Storm]

720 tors through August.

Unless there's an uptick in activity over the next month and a half, less than 900 tors looks good.

[andyhb]

720 tors through August.

Unless there's an uptick in activity over the next month and a half, less than 900 tors looks good.

 

Might be a chance for less than 800 at this rate.

 

Boy have we seen some stagnant patterns stunting consistent severe activity over the past three years (sweltering heat in 2012, cold in 2013 and 2014), despite a few high impact/intensity events. Three straight sub-1000 tornado years sounds almost impossible in this age of increased detection.

 

Interested to see if the classic chaser havens of the Texas Panhandle/west of I-35 in OK fire up next Spring given Nino climo and recent drought relief. That region has seen virtually zilch since 2007.

[Chicago Storm]

Might be a chance for less than 800 at this rate.

Highly unlikely given the current total and projected Sep-Nov totals.

 

Less than 850 is a lock though.

[Hoosier]

Might be a chance for less than 800 at this rate.

 

Boy have we seen some stagnant patterns stunting consistent severe activity over the past three years (sweltering heat in 2012, cold in 2013 and 2014), despite a few high impact/intensity events. Three straight sub-1000 tornado years sounds almost impossible in this age of increased detection.

 

Interested to see if the classic chaser havens of the Texas Panhandle/west of I-35 in OK fire up next Spring given Nino climo and recent drought relief. That region has seen virtually zilch since 2007.

 

 

It's going to be a you know what when we swing back the other way.  Although like you've said, there have been high impact events in the past few years even with overall numbers down.

[Hoosier]

1989 was the last time there were less than 900 tornadoes.

[1900hurricane]

Oklahoma still only has 12 reported tornadoes on the year. I don't remember for sure, but I think that would be a record fewest if no more are observed for the rest of the year, which is entirely possible.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2014&state=OK

[Hoosier]

Oklahoma still only has 12 reported tornadoes on the year. I don't remember for sure, but I think that would be a record fewest if no more are observed for the rest of the year, which is entirely possible.

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2014&state=OK

 

 

Correct, the record low is 17.

 

Edit:  this is a better source

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

[andyhb]

Of course if you head north two states, Nebraska had perhaps their most active season in recent memory.

 

This upcoming Spring will likely be a change in some sense as we break out of this multi-year ENSO neutral period, although some of the stronger analogs for this Winter generally resulted in pretty quiet severe seasons succeeding them. I do think an early start is rather unlikely (except for perhaps Florida) given the Nino and the general concensus for a cold Jan/Feb in the east.

[Hoosier]

Of course if you head north two states, Nebraska had perhaps their most active season in recent memory.

 

This upcoming Spring will likely be a change in some sense as we break out of this multi-year ENSO neutral period, although some of the stronger analogs for this Winter generally resulted in pretty quiet severe seasons succeeding them. I do think an early start is rather unlikely (except for perhaps Florida) given the Nino and the general concensus for a cold Jan/Feb in the east.

 

 

Nebraska was a hotspot for sure.

 

Here are the preliminary tornado reports since the beginning of the year.  It's not an accurate display of what happened since it's preliminary reports but you can pick out general areas of less activity (which is backed up by checking Storm Data for the months that are available).  The southern Plains have had a down year relatively speaking.  The area from Nebraska eastward across the Midwest/OH Valley looks like it may have been AOA average (the longterm average anyway) but we'll see what the final numbers look like.

 

[Hoosier]

747 tornadoes through September

[andyhb]

[bdgwx]

It's hard to believe that there has been 3 consecutive years that are nearly 2 standards of deviation below the mean. 

[andyhb]

900 tornadoes

 

First High Risk: May 14th

 

Looks like this will be our winner in terms of number of tornadoes (closest to the actual).

 

Probably will start a new thread for 2015 in the coming days.

[Hoosier]

[Hoosier]

Final number will change but sub 900 seems like a lock.  SPC site showing 881 with Nov/Dec still preliminary.

[Quincy]

Tornado winners and losers for 2014...

 

Winners: Eastern South Dakota and Nebraska into the middle/upper Midwest. It was a very active season there, particularly in June. Also, the only significant and widespread tornado outbreak that stands out was in April across Dixie Alley.

 

Loser: Oklahoma. Not just a lack of tornadoes, but a lack of severe storm reports in general.