Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2014

[Hoosier]

[Stebo]

2008 is really interesting considering how active it was that year.

[Chicago Storm]

Yep...It's been slow. And to add to what's below, Skilling said it might even be the quietest since 1915.

 

[Quincy]

It's early in the game, but Saturday and/or Sunday could go high risk based on the current model forecast output.

[Ground Scouring]

It's early in the game, but Sarurday and/or Sunday could go high risk based on the current model forecast output.

I think Saturday may get a High Risk, but not solely based on tornadoes, but also on wind / hail parameters. Sunday increasingly, to my eye, looks to have problems with low-level veering (relative weakening of the southernmost low over OK / KS on the 18Z vs. the 12Z GFS), the northward dislocation of the best upper-level support from the best thermodynamics, and the not-as-perpendicular-to-the-dryline deep-layer shear. There are simply too many unknowns for Sunday. Saturday gets more and more impressive but the tornado threat might be localized due to mesoscale factors. I'm still skeptical that multiple significant tornado families will evolve on Saturday, so the High Risk would likely come from wind / hail.

[andyhb]

I think Saturday may get a High Risk, but not solely based on tornadoes, but also on wind / hail parameters. Sunday increasingly, to my eye, looks to have problems with low-level veering (relative weakening of the southernmost low over OK / KS on the 18Z vs. the 12Z GFS), the northward dislocation of the best upper-level support from the best thermodynamics, and the not-as-perpendicular-to-the-dryline deep-layer shear. There are simply too many unknowns for Sunday. Saturday gets more and more impressive but the tornado threat might be localized due to mesoscale factors. I'm still skeptical that multiple significant tornado families will evolve on Saturday, so the High Risk would likely come from wind / hail.

 

Way, way too early to be ruling out any of these days, c'mon now.

[thewxmann]

I think Saturday may get a High Risk, but not solely based on tornadoes, but also on wind / hail parameters. Sunday increasingly, to my eye, looks to have problems with low-level veering (relative weakening of the southernmost low over OK / KS on the 18Z vs. the 12Z GFS), the northward dislocation of the best upper-level support from the best thermodynamics, and the not-as-perpendicular-to-the-dryline deep-layer shear. There are simply too many unknowns for Sunday. Saturday gets more and more impressive but the tornado threat might be localized due to mesoscale factors. I'm still skeptical that multiple significant tornado families will evolve on Saturday, so the High Risk would likely come from wind / hail.

 

You can't get a high risk from hail, and this isn't a high wind setup. If any HR happens from Sat-Mon it will be from tornadoes, plain and simple.

[brettjrob]

You can't get a high risk from hail, and this isn't a high wind setup. If any HR happens from Sat-Mon it will be from tornadoes, plain and simple.

 

Absolutely.

 

It's all pointless speculation, but IMHO the greatest probability of getting it with this system is easily Sunday. You have to keep in mind that coverage is a big factor. The ceiling for total impacts is higher Sunday, even if Saturday is a "nicer" setup in some ways.

[Chicago Storm]

Yep...It's been slow. And to add to what's below, Skilling said it might even be the quietest since 1915.

 

 

Here's another... One of the few years with no tor deaths this late in the year.

 

[Ensō]

Here's another... One of the few years with no tor deaths this late in the year.

 

 

The lack of activity has been frustrating, but it sure is nice to see that particular stat.

 

Both 1900 and 1915 were extremely slow years except for a few isolated high-impact events.

[Torchageddon]

I can confirm that is Joplin.

 

*Image*

I hear during these severe events that too much crowding of storms/convection near a supercell will rob energy or disturb the inflow channels to it which weaken either the cell or the tornado that might try to form or has formed...here there are a lot of storms around an EF5 tornado and it didn't seem to do anything. Does it have to be other supercells?

 

My prediction for the first High Risk is long busted and looks like the same will be the case for numbers.

[Quincy]

There's a good possibility that Sunday, April 27th will become the first high risk day of 2014. SPC mentioned this with the last day 2 update and the model data still looks very impressive.

[Ed Lizard]

There's a good possibility that Sunday, April 27th will become the first high risk day of 2014. SPC mentioned this with the last day 2 update and the model data still looks very impressive.

 

I bet the they wait until the 13Z update.

[MidwestChaser]

So who guessed today?

[1900hurricane]

My guess of May 1st was close, but not quite. I think a few others may have been closer.

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[Disc]

WxKevinM, on 24 Jan 2014 - 10:35 AM, said:

1000 tors.... April 25th first high risk.

 

Winner.

[WxKevinM]

Not so sure about my 1000 tors though the way this year has been so far.. :/

[thewxmann]

So.... over/under 950?

[1900hurricane]

I'm seriously leaning under at this point. Our late April activity gave us a nice uptick in numbers, but with us being still so far down and the next two-ish weeks looking the way they are, It's going to take one active end of May/June on top of an above average fall season and a tropical cyclone landfall or two for us to get around 1000 at this point.

[andyhb]

I'll say under, given that tropical activity has a good chance of being anemic this year, it's looking pretty likely that we're heading for the third straight sub-1000 year in a row considering the deficit so far, somewhat like the late 1980s, although we've had more notable events in this stretch than then.

 

Just another thing regarding 2011 vs. 2004 in terms of numbers of tornadoes, 2011 is clearly the more active year from a mid-latitude cyclone perspective, considering the sheer number of TC related tornadoes in 2004 with Frances and Ivan each producing over 100 alone.

[andyhb]

So.... over/under 950 800?

 

[Hoosier]

Noticed that Oklahoma only has 12 tornadoes through June.  Record low is 17 in 1988...will it be broken?

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-monthlyannual

[Hoosier]

309 tornadoes through May, compared to 486 through May of last year.  June 2014 was a lot more active than June 2013 though so the numbers will catch up dramatically.

[Quincy]

Preliminary numbers for July also outpaced the last few years. August is off to a near record low start. Dating back to 2000, on pace for the least amount of August tornadoes this year. (A grand finale on Sunday could bring them out of the bottom spot with 15 tornadoes, but those are just preliminary numbers and may not be 100% accurate)

[Chicago Storm]

588 tors through June... Which is less than 2012 (728) and 2013 (611) through that point.

[thewxmann]

Honestly questioning whether we will breach 800 at this point.

[Hoosier]

Honestly questioning whether we will breach 800 at this point.

 

 

It was kinda looking that way last year and then came 11/17.  Wondering what kind of fall it will be.

[rolltide_130]

Unless the Fall season has another major event like last year did I don't know if we'll hit 800. I'm just going to play the guessing game and say we'll have a moderate/ high risk around Thanksgiving for Dixie Alley somewhere. Just seems like a year that the south is due for some Fall action.

[thewxmann]

I just realized... Jan-Jun this year has had 170 fewer tornadoes than Apr 2011.

[thewxmann]

687 tors thru end of Jul... compares to 683 thru the same time last year, 765 in 2012.