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Predict/Guess the Number of Tornadoes and the First High Risk of 2014

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Central/Western States

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
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Active storm track into the Mid South this winter may have severe implications when it warms up. Plains may lag for reasons above but don't forget about Dixie Alley or the Ohio Valley. I'll go with 1225 tornadoes and a high risk April 8 which might not be in the Plains. So tired of winter; I'm just glad to see a severe wx thread.

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andyhb

andyhb

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Good discussion from USTornadoes about the upcoming season written by Ellinwood. Looks like we have a better chance at heading towards another below normal season.  :(  1962 and 1963 were very quiet overall, while 1960 was also very quiet except for the May 4th-6th outbreak in the Plains.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/02/28/spring-2014-seasonal-tornado-outlook/

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Quincy

Quincy

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I took a look at SPC high risk days from 1988 to 2013 (data seems sparse before 1988 - source was Wikipedia) and came up with a chart that shows how often a given week of the year featured a high risk outlook.

 

As expected, the peak runs from April through early/mid-June,. April 30th - May 6th has seen at least one high risk outlook 35 percent of the time, or in 9/26 years. By purely adding up the frequencies per week, the total reaches 100% by April 16th - but that's non-scientific. 2000 did not have any high risks and last year was a "late" start with the first high risk outlook issued for June 12th.

post-533-0-94874400-1393701097_thumb.gif

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm_Prediction_Center_high_risk_days

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Looks at the moment like it may remain a moderate risk and we will pass the torch on to the next forecast(s). If so, will count this as a near miss. If it goes high now, then we're right on the date since it is now 01z April 4th. Must admit, I did not notice the other forecast of April 4th, mine is based on a research project and I would say that if we're still looking for the first high risk after tomorrow, then watch these two windows -- April 16-18 and April 29-May 1.

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bdgwx

bdgwx

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So far there have been no killer tornadoes this year. You have to go back to 2004 when the first tornado fatality occurred on 4/20 to find a year with a comparable pace. And if I've interpreted the data correctly then 2004 had the latest occurrence of a fatality since at least 1950. So if we can make it to 4/21 then 2014 would be the year with the latest occurrence. This is based on the SPC tornado datasets here. Can someone double-check my work?

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

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So far there have been no killer tornadoes this year. You have to go back to 2004 when the first tornado fatality occurred on 4/20 to find a year with a comparable pace. And if I've interpreted the data correctly then 2004 had the latest occurrence of a fatality since at least 1950. So if we can make it to 4/21 then 2014 would be the year with the latest occurrence. This is based on the SPC tornado datasets here. Can someone double-check my work?

 

Epic Harper County, Kansas cycling sup was May 2004. It only takes one day. This year my April 8 Mid South high risk fcst is a big old bust. Second try April 30 Mid Mississippi Valley.

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