andyhb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 About that time of the year again. Following two quiet years number-wise (despite a number of significant events including 3/2/12, the May events this year and 11/17), I'll go with 1195 tornadoes. First high risk on March 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 1050 tornadoes. High risk April 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 1100, March 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 975, May 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 1250 March 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 1325 Tornadoes. First High Risk: February 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Can't be worse than 2013. I guess 1500 tors and First high risk March 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Predict the first ENHANCED RISK of 2014. Ha ha ha. It will probably be before Feb. 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Predict the first ENHANCED RISK of 2014. Ha ha ha. It will probably be before Feb. 15th. It won't be implemented yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 1200 April 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 It won't be implemented yet. Oops. When is that implemented? I must not have read the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Sometime in April from what I have heard (if the plan is still in place). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 1179. April 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 1200, 3/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 tornadoes: 1368 High risk day: March 31, 2014. There will be a high risk at 12z that day, there will be 10 tornadoes and 485 wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 1077 tornadoes High risk day: April 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 1000 tors.... April 25th first high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 1175 tornadoes, first high risk Apr 4th (mdt risk March 8-9 and 22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 1286. First high risk - April 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Number of tornadoes: 1200First high risk: March 11th (this is two 57-day LRC cycles from the 11/17/13 outbreak) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1050 First high risk: May 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1,150 tornadoes First high risk on May 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 700 with no high risk day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 900 tornadoes First High Risk: May 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row. I agree with the reasoning behind this. We need a shake up pattern wise. IMO, only a PDO flip or an ENSO signal flip flop would get me to be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22, 2014 Author Share Posted February 22, 2014 I agree with the reasoning behind this. We need a shake up pattern wise. IMO, only a PDO flip or an ENSO signal flip flop would get me to be optimistic. Well the latter might be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'll go ~1,100 tornadoes and May 1st for the first High Risk of the year. Although the magnitude of cold intrusions so far this winter and the re-intensification of the southern plains drought has me a bit skittish numbers-wise, I can't see us ending up with below 1000 tornadoes for a third year in a row. Actually, you raise good points there why it could very well end up below 1000. The numbers of tornadoes between years are independent from each other, so having a third straight year of below 1000 would not be too statistically significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Well the latter might be in the cards. I'd take a nino at the expense of severe events right now. Not for the winter weather either. Just good soaking rains for a few months and try to get some sense of normalcy in the west and plains drought wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I'd take a nino at the expense of severe events right now. Not for the winter weather either. Just good soaking rains for a few months and try to get some sense of normalcy in the west and plains drought wise. This. An El Nino might actually help severe season to some extent this year by moistening up the southern plains for all we know. The last two severe seasons have been for the most part quite pitiful and it almost feels like to me that any change from last year would yield a net positive outcome for severe weather. Then again, anyone saying that statement following 2012 would have been burned badly, and that could very well be the case here too. All I know is that I want some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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