gosaints Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Sref plumes up to 8.5 in la crosse. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 UGN up to 7.5" on the 21z SREF plume. MKE 8.3" Total for wave 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 UGN up to 7.5" on the 21z SREF plume. MKE 8.3" Total for wave 3 It does have a north bias normally since it's associated with the NAM, and complete trolllol at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 305 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2013 DISCUSSION 305 PM CST HOPEFULLY EVERYONE GOT OUT TO ENJOY "THE GOOD" YESTERDAY BECAUSE THERE IS NOTHING BUT "BAD" AND "UGLY" LEFT THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE FORECAST. THE BAD/UGLY HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE BITTER COLD TONIGHT...QUICK HITTING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW TUES NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR MORE BITTER COLD. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT COULD SEE THE NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A COUPLE HOURS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON FZDZ AND NEED FOR HEADLINE EXTENSION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI SOUTH INTO EASTERN IA. ANTICIPATE THIS CLEARING LINE WILL STEADILY MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVER THE SNOW PACK SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF NICELY AS THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN OUR GOING FORECAST AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON TEMPS OVER THE SNOW PACK. WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE LOW TEMPS OVER THE SNOW COVER BUT DID TREND UPWARD AND MAY STILL BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. EVEN WITH TEMPS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST IT STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO PLAN TO LET THAT HEADLINE RIDE BUT WILL SHORTEN THE DURATION ON MONDAY MORNING BY SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT MONDAY MORNING. FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS IS PROGGED TO PIVOT AROUND THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN/GET ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING FORCING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR CWA. DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA. WHILE TEMPERATURE PROFILE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH...WRF-NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW NO SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WITHIN THE DGZ. WHILE WHAT SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOW LIQUID CONTENT...SUSPECT THE FLAKE TYPE MAY CONSIST MORE OF PLATES VS DENDRITES AND LESS APT TO FLUFF UP TO VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO STICK WITH ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MONDAY EVENING. SNOW LOOKS TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY. APPEARS AS THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD BE IN FOR A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SNOW IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME COUPLING OF THIS JET WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEARBY OUR AREA RESULTING IN CONTINUED ASCENT AND SNOW. TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE SNOW LATE TUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS THAT IT WILL BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WHICH CAN OFTEN RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTH FLANK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AND HAS BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS ON THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A TREND NORTHWARD NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE CYCLES OF THE MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS NORTHWARD BUT MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN PLACEMENT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AS PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK...SURFACE LOW WITH THIS WAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WITH ATMOSPHERE ALREADY SATURATED AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER FEED OF MOISTURE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ROBUST SNOW TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE MODEL WORLD TO START NAILING DOWN TRACK AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS BUT HAVE BEEFED UP POPS IN THE GRIDS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THAT SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS TO BE A HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW:LIQUID SNOW EVENT. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR PURE LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. ASSUMING THERE IS A FRESH FLUFFY COATING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT (WHICH LOOKS LIKELY) THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/FRESH SNOW PACK) THEN IT WOULDNT BE INCONCEIVABLE THAT RECORD LOWS COULD BE APPROACHED...BUT PLENTY COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Haha, MKX already putting up amounts in the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!! absolutely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Izzi doesn't sound too impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!! Sweeet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Izzi doesn't sound too impressed yeah....just hit the key points...long duration, decent ratios, wait and see bullets.... but he does have a lot on his plate dealing with the random ZR headaches in LOT today too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Took a glance at 12z euro text for YYZ... has about 0.6" of QPF but ratios would likely be in the 15-20:1 range with H85 temps hovering between -16 and -12c. Looking at a 20-30cm dumping under that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Is that a TV station? WTOD = Warm Tongue Of Death This popular acronym has been used on the weather boards in the Ohio Valley region for years to describe the ever present and under modeled surge of warm air to the west of the Apps. It never fails for this warm surge to push all the way up to Lake Erie during large events. Nicely done Trent...Wikipedia-worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 wagons north on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS brings the power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Is there a term "frisbee low" and is this perhaps one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 N IL does extremely well on this run. Nice 12" blob at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Slight jump north but not much. 4 runs in a row now with 10"+ here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The slight adjustments north are hard not to notice at this point...especially with the razor southern cutoff. Need to see these stop with the next round of 0/12z runs otherwise my call will be in danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I have seen it often with an "over-correction" to the north 48 to 72 hours and a slight drift south within 36 hours...hopefully this is the case with this system for selfish reasons... another trend has been the lowering of QPF's, as has been mentioned by Dustin and Alek, as we get within 36 hours... interesting trends to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 By the way, not to split hairs, but this really isn't a 'bowling ball' storm is it? Aren't those usually when the ULL closes off and bowls east out of the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker? i haven't even looked at the euro but Izzi had this to say. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AND HAS BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS ON THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH A TREND NORTHWARD NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE CYCLES OF THE MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I have seen it often with an "over-correction" to the north 48 to 72 hours and a slight drift south within 36 hours...hopefully this is the case with this system for selfish reasons... another trend has been the lowering of QPF's, as has been mentioned by Dustin and Alek, as we get within 36 hours... interesting trends to watch overall slp track shouldn't change much more than 25-50 miles from what the GFS/Euro show with this pattern...just have to avoid that southern edge. But you gotta gamble with that if you wanna see the best pivot point action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GFS is like 30 miles further north with the southern edge of the 6" area. Including more of the snow eastwards in the subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker? Correct.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yup, I-88 Illinois and I-94 Michigan corridor really look sweet on this one run one model at this time. Flip flopping will continue. Will be interesting to see the headlines given this upcoming holiday period. Since I'll be in da Calumet region for this one I'm hoping the southern cut off is not too sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 By the way, not to split hairs, but this really isn't a 'bowling ball' storm is it? Aren't those usually when the ULL closes off and bowls east out of the plains? The title is deceiving, as it's not a "bowling ball". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If Madison ends up ground zero. Multiple meltdowns will occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Total moisture through 108 hours for the GFS. Snow depth by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If Madison ends up ground zero. Multiple meltdowns will occur. Yeah, it will probably get bad in that case for those south and east of Milwaukee/Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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