Hybrid frisbee storm - December 31-January 2

[gosaints]

Sref plumes up to 8.5 in la crosse. Lol

[Geos]

UGN up to 7.5" on the 21z SREF plume. MKE 8.3"

 

Total for wave 3

 

[wisconsinwx]

UGN up to 7.5" on the 21z SREF plume. MKE 8.3"

 

Total for wave 3

 

 

 

It does have a north bias normally since it's associated with the NAM, and complete trolllol at the NAM.

[Hoosier]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL  

305 PM CST SUN DEC 29 2013  

   

DISCUSSION  

 

305 PM CST  

 

HOPEFULLY EVERYONE GOT OUT TO ENJOY "THE GOOD" YESTERDAY BECAUSE  

THERE IS NOTHING BUT "BAD" AND "UGLY" LEFT THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE  

FORECAST. THE BAD/UGLY HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE BITTER COLD  

TONIGHT...QUICK HITTING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR AN  

EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW TUES NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  

NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR MORE BITTER COLD.  

 

AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF  

HOURS...BUT COULD SEE THE NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY A COUPLE HOURS  

IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON FZDZ  

AND NEED FOR HEADLINE EXTENSION. BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS MAKING  

STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI SOUTH  

INTO EASTERN IA. ANTICIPATE THIS CLEARING LINE WILL STEADILY MOVE  

SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  

SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE  

GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES OVER THE SNOW PACK  

SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF NICELY AS THE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO  

THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN OUR  

GOING FORECAST AND AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY HAVE A DECENT HANDLE  

ON TEMPS OVER THE SNOW PACK. WAS RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANTLY  

RAISE LOW TEMPS OVER THE SNOW COVER BUT DID TREND UPWARD AND MAY  

STILL BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS. EVEN WITH TEMPS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY  

FORECAST IT STILL APPEARS THAT WIND CHILLS WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER  

MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA SO PLAN TO LET THAT HEADLINE RIDE BUT WILL  

SHORTEN THE DURATION ON MONDAY MORNING BY SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS  

SHOULD BE LIGHT MONDAY MORNING.  

 

FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS IS PROGGED TO PIVOT AROUND THE  

ANOMALOUSLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS  

TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY MOISTURE  

STARVED. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN/GET  

ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL  

RESULT IN WEAKENING FORCING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR CWA.  

DESPITE THIS...GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SQUEEZING OUT A  

FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY  

NORTHERN CWA. WHILE TEMPERATURE PROFILE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR GOOD  

DENDRITIC GROWTH...WRF-NAM AND GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH SHOW NO  

SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WITHIN THE DGZ. WHILE WHAT SNOW  

THAT FALLS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOW LIQUID CONTENT...SUSPECT THE FLAKE  

TYPE MAY CONSIST MORE OF PLATES VS DENDRITES AND LESS APT TO FLUFF  

UP TO VERY HIGH SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO STICK WITH  

ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MONDAY EVENING.  

SNOW LOOKS TO END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME  

CLEARING BRIEFLY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT  

SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY.  

 

APPEARS AS THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD BE IN FOR A LONG  

DURATION SNOW EVENT STARTING LATE TUESDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH  

EARLY THURSDAY. SNOW IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY DEVELOP TUESDAY  

AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TAKES  

PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF  

THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  

WEDNESDAY A PACIFIC JET IS PROGGED TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM  

WESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOME COUPLING OF THIS  

JET WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEARBY OUR  

AREA RESULTING IN CONTINUED ASCENT AND SNOW. TRICKY PART OF THE  

FORECAST FOR THE SNOW LATE TUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS THAT IT WILL  

BE DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WHICH CAN OFTEN  

RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP CUT OFF IN THE PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTH  

FLANK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AND HAS BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON  

THE PAST FEW RUNS ON THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT HAVE  

BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP  

WITH A TREND NORTHWARD NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE CYCLES OF THE  

MODELS. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHER POPS NORTHWARD BUT MAINTAINED LIKELY  

POPS FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN  

PLACEMENT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  

 

AS PACIFIC JET TRANSLATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY A SLIGHTLY  

MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  

EAST INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE  

DEVELOPING A MORE PRONOUNCED...BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK...SURFACE LOW  

WITH THIS WAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF  

THIS WAVE WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC ASCENT  

AND WITH ATMOSPHERE ALREADY SATURATED AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER FEED OF  

MOISTURE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ROBUST SNOW TO TAKE PLACE  

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE MODEL  

WORLD TO START NAILING DOWN TRACK AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS BUT  

HAVE BEEFED UP POPS IN THE GRIDS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE TO HIT THE  

ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT FAIRLY HARD IN THE HWO. PARTICULARLY  

CONSIDERING THAT SOME THREAT EXISTS FOR THIS TO BE A HIGHER THAN  

AVERAGE SNOW:LIQUID SNOW EVENT. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OR PURE LAKE  

EFFECT COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE  

REGION.  

 

ASSUMING THERE IS A FRESH FLUFFY COATING OF SNOW OVER THE AREA  

THURSDAY NIGHT (WHICH LOOKS LIKELY) THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A  

BITTERLY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. IF ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME  

TOGETHER JUST RIGHT (CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/FRESH SNOW PACK) THEN  

IT WOULDNT BE INCONCEIVABLE THAT RECORD LOWS COULD BE  

APPROACHED...BUT PLENTY COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. SOME  

MODERATION IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM  

POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND.  

 

IZZI  

[Geos]

Haha, MKX already putting up amounts in the grids.

[dmc76]

It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!!

[Gilbertfly]

It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!!

 

absolutely....

[A-L-E-K]

Izzi doesn't sound too impressed

[hm8]

It just dawned to me that we could see a snowstorm during the Winter classic at the big house'!!

Sweeet

[Gilbertfly]

Izzi doesn't sound too impressed

 

yeah....just hit the key points...long duration, decent ratios, wait and see bullets....

 

but he does have a lot on his plate dealing with the random ZR headaches in LOT today too

[blizzardof96]

Took a glance at 12z euro text for YYZ... has about 0.6" of QPF but ratios would likely be in the 15-20:1 range with H85 temps hovering between -16 and -12c. Looking at a 20-30cm dumping under that setup.

[buckeye]

Is that a TV station?

 

WTOD = Warm Tongue Of Death

 

This popular acronym has been used on the weather boards in the Ohio Valley region for years to describe the ever present and under modeled surge of warm air to the west of the Apps. It never fails for this warm surge to push all the way up to Lake Erie during large events.

 

Nicely done Trent...Wikipedia-worthy 

[A-L-E-K]

wagons north on the GFS

[MidwestChaser]

GFS brings the power. 

 

[Roger Smith]

Is there a term "frisbee low" and is this perhaps one?

[RJSnowLover]

N IL does extremely well on this run. Nice 12" blob at 102hr.

[Thundersnow12]

Slight jump north but not much. 4 runs in a row now with 10"+ here

[A-L-E-K]

The slight adjustments north are hard not to notice at this point...especially with the razor southern cutoff. Need to see these stop with the next round of 0/12z runs otherwise my call will be in danger.

[Thundersnow12]

Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker?

[Gilbertfly]

I have seen it often with an "over-correction" to the north 48 to 72 hours and a slight drift south within 36 hours...hopefully this is the case with this system for selfish reasons...

 

another trend has been the lowering of QPF's, as has been mentioned by Dustin and Alek, as we get within 36 hours...

 

interesting trends to watch

[buckeye]

By the way, not to split hairs, but this really isn't a 'bowling ball' storm is it?   Aren't those usually when the ULL closes off and bowls east out of the plains?

[A-L-E-K]

Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker?

 

 

i haven't even looked at the euro but Izzi had this to say.

 

MODEL GUIDANCE IS AND HAS BEEN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THE PAST FEW RUNS ON THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND SET UP...BUT HAVE

BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP

WITH A TREND NORTHWARD NOTED IN THE PAST COUPLE CYCLES OF THE

MODELS.

[A-L-E-K]

I have seen it often with an "over-correction" to the north 48 to 72 hours and a slight drift south within 36 hours...hopefully this is the case with this system for selfish reasons...

 

another trend has been the lowering of QPF's, as has been mentioned by Dustin and Alek, as we get within 36 hours...

 

interesting trends to watch

 

 

overall slp track shouldn't change much more than 25-50 miles from what the GFS/Euro show with this pattern...just have to avoid that southern edge. But you gotta gamble with that if you wanna see the best pivot point action.

[Geos]

GFS is like 30 miles further north with the southern edge of the 6" area. 

 

 

Including more of the snow eastwards in the subforum

 

 

[Harry]

Didn't the GEM and Euro both go south and weaker?

 

Correct..

[Indystorm]

Yup, I-88 Illinois and I-94 Michigan corridor really look sweet on this one run one model at this time.  Flip flopping will continue.  Will be interesting to see the headlines given this upcoming holiday period.  Since I'll be in da Calumet region for this one I'm hoping the southern cut off is not too sharp.

[Chicago Storm]

By the way, not to split hairs, but this really isn't a 'bowling ball' storm is it? Aren't those usually when the ULL closes off and bowls east out of the plains?

The title is deceiving, as it's not a "bowling ball".

[gosaints]

If Madison ends up ground zero. Multiple meltdowns will occur

[Geos]

Total moisture through 108 hours for the GFS.

 

 

Snow depth by the end of the week.

 

[wisconsinwx]

If Madison ends up ground zero. Multiple meltdowns will occur.

 

Yeah, it will probably get bad in that case for those south and east of Milwaukee/Chicago.