SchaumburgStormer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I had been thinking 6" or so for MBY....but if trends continue with the second wave then I may bump that up a bit...ORD to GEOS to ALEK looks pretty locked and loaded for some 12"+ lollipops IMO Thinking you are being a bit conservative, but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TimChgo is going big everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 the more stingy ARW...still SN with lake band at 48 hrs That's a beautiful map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 bufkit was showing 20:1+ with some of this band right? Yea. I know when I was skimming through things last night and this morning, there were several periods with ratios of 20:1-25:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bumping call to 6.4" which still could be conservative. 12Z NAM featuring some decent growth in CAPE's tomorrow in far NE IL ... gonna be tricky to nail down the lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The potential for an overperforming system is definitely there IMO considering both the NAM and GFS bufkit soundings for KSBN have a near 300 mb isothermal layer impinging on the lower end of the DGZ tonight. The extra lift within this band should cool the column a few degrees and have nicely co-located omega and moisture within the DGZ within the frontogenesis band. NAM and GFS are both indicating ratios of 16:1 to 20:1 within this band with 12:1 to 16:1 on the fringes. These ratios could be a bit underdone given my aforementioned reasoning. Would not be surprised to see event total ratios of near 20:1 in a few spots. If the QPF values near 0.75" verify then a few locations are in for a real treat. Overall, expect liquid totals of 0.5 to 0.6 along I-80 which is still a nice swath of 10-12 inches. (This doesn't include the lake effect/lake enhancement for you Chicago folks.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I really wouldn't be surprised to see some of the IL shore areas go over 15" if the lake band comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I really wouldn't be surprised to see some of the IL shore areas go over 15" if the lake band comes through. i'll take pics if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol here we are less the 12 hours from the event and still no WSW. Not even an advisory and we have several models painting 10"+ smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42213-december-31-january-2-hybrid-frisbee-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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