A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 somehow glanced over the WRF-RIP, best new model name 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 We really are pretty lucky to have a solid office locally... posting pictures tomorrow ? I'll be out and about tonight, probably take some pics but we'll see. Will definitely take pics if we see another band with good rates move through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Gino NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES THIS MORNING TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOCATION/TIMING...HOWEVER QUICK GLANCE AT 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAY NEED TO EXTEND END TIME OF HEADLINE SOME AND POSSIBLY EXPAND THE AREA. GIVEN THAT THE EVENT APPEARS WELL COVERED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD LIKE TO TAKE SOME TIME TO FULLY DIGEST THE MORNING GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AND HEADLINES FOR THE SYNOPTIC PORTION OF THE EVENT. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR COOK COUNTY AND BOTH LAKE COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT IS FICKLE AND TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS OF WHERE...BUT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE LES BAND WITH VERY HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. WILL HAVE MORE ON THE LES POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON AFD. IZZI I'm always surprised how little LES Chicago gets, this makes sense for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I80 rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 wagons north Is that north of the last run? WGN showing widespread 6-8" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is that north of the last run? WGN showing widespread 6-8" amounts. yes, north and wetter. the model runs north/wet but we've seen an across the board shift north with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GGEM showing this for total water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No disrespect to my southern neighbors, but keep it coming north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 WRF RIP. Best model name. Part of university of Illinois wrf suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Front yard stream is up and running, and will be for the duration: http://ustre.am/16Txc Will also have a light going at night. I'm considering putting together a snow board and sticking it out front of the cam. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have no idea, there are busses/trains all over the city and they're a penny on NYE. Naso sure about the burbs Just checked the Naperville bus schedules. Certainly no discount or free rides. in fact, they have a reduced schedule tonight. Typical burbs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z NMM really jacked now. .75" liquid here through 39hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I guess I quit on this one a bit early, still skeptical locally but I do like the 06z and 12z model trend especially with the Hi-Res stuff. If that were to verify DTX would get absolutely burned especially since they have me down for <1" tonight and <1" tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If that snow in SW Wisconsin indicated by radar is actually reaching the ground, either this systemis moving faster than expected or may end being slightly north of most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Depending now how tomorrow plays out, both RC and I think an upgrade to a warning here could be justified. LOT had an interesting note about the best snows setting up tonight just south of the model QPF axis I would say a WSW is warranted in the LOT CWA as far south of I-80, actually. For sure for the northern two tiers of counties. Resolving the time-interval criteria for WSW may be the only issue, especially in the area between I-88 and I-80, but a need for awareness may trump any of that since it's NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z NMM really jacked now. .75" liquid here through 39hrs the more stingy ARW...still SN with lake band at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I guess I quit on this one a bit early, still skeptical locally but I do like the 06z and 12z model trend especially with the Hi-Res stuff. If that were to verify DTX would get absolutely burned especially since they have me down for <1" tonight and <1" tomorrow. Way to conservative. thinking 4-7" south of 59. 3-4" north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would say a WSW is warranted in the LOT CWA as far south of I-80, actually. For sure for the northern two tiers of counties. Resolving the time-interval criteria for WSW may be the only issue, especially in the area between I-88 and I-80, but a need for awareness may trump any of that since it's NYE. Izzi sounded like he was leaning against an upgrade with his latest disco but was contemplating increasing WWA coverage. Of course, the 12z runs weren't done at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Way to conservative. thinking 4-7" south of 59. 3-4" north. I think they will update with the new pkg... Curious if they issue wsw? I think WWA more likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think they will update with the new pkg... Curious if they issue wsw? I think WWA more likely.. No too long of a duration, it will be WWA for bottom 3 tiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think they will update with the new pkg... Curious if they issue wsw? I think WWA more likely.. They might not have a choice... It's NYD lots of people in town especially for the Winter classic no need to brush this under the rug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 High res stuffs Nmm ARW Marquette WRF North Webster WRF 12z NSSL WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some 3/4 mile obs splashing in in central Iowa...even the hires didn't have rates like that this early....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Got the shovels and the salt out. I am thinking at least 9" for MBY. Noted that Tracy Butler used the "F" word this morning in describing snow amounts... stating that "1 foot is possible" so, we shall see. Cloudy out now, temp is 8. Going to be watching the radar while working. It's days like this that I truly enjoy working from home, and don't have to commute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 TimChgo is going big everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Some 3/4 mile obs splashing in in central Iowa...even the hires didn't have rates like that this early....FWIW Remember this is a higher ratio event though. So even though it might be snowing at a decent clip, there's likely little QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Remember this is a higher ratio event though. So even though it might be snowing at a decent clip, there's likely little QPF. Quality call Joe...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Remember this is a higher ratio event though. So even though it might be snowing at a decent clip, there's likely little QPF. bufkit was showing 20:1+ with some of this band right? either way, location looks pretty much as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I had been thinking 6" or so for MBY....but if trends continue with the second wave then I may bump that up a bit...ORD to GEOS to ALEK looks pretty locked and loaded for some 12"+ lollipops IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Bumping call to 6.4" which still could be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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