buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RGEM has a 1011 low into southeast OH at 48 hours...and that's that. We'll have to see when the color total QPF become available, but it seemed like a better run for E IA, N IL, S WI, N IN, N OH, and S MI. better precip a little further southeast into OH as well....extrapolated out it should be an ok hit for the eastern parts of the subforum as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 just nice to hear we've stopped the bleeding from some of yesterday's 12z runs. The floor for this one still looks like my best event since 2011. Would be nice for you to get the GFS back on board for big totals. Not that it's the be all, end all...but further agreement and it's all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 just nice to hear we've stopped the bleeding from some of yesterday's 12z runs. The floor for this one still looks like my best event since 2011. I'm hoping this verifies as well. Would be a nice heap of snow for Chicago. But I must ask.....when was the last time we had a significant LE event pan out as predicted? Seems like events on this side of the lake never materialize. Not trying to kill the buzz....just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Would be nice for you to get the GFS back on board for big totals. Not that it's the be all, end all...but further agreement and it's all systems go. 0z was nice but 6z took a step back. If we can get back to .6-.7 on the GFS/Euro I'd be happy. Hi-res should be interesting for the LE. NAM was actually a little less impressive than 6z with that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm hoping this verifies as well. Would be a nice heap of snow for Chicago. But I must ask.....when was the last time we had a significant LE event pan out as predicted? Seems like events on this side of the lake never materialize. Not trying to kill the buzz....just curious. As discussed yesterday, probably Dec 2010...killer rates 6-8" north shore. Seems like I see a 3-5" LE hit every few years. EDIT: one other note on LE, some of the earlier hi res guidance was showing a mesolow like feature in between the two waves and prior to the main LE. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 better precip a little further southeast into OH as well....extrapolated out it should be an ok hit for the eastern parts of the subforum as well. good to hear....a nice one - two punch between the lead wave and the primary LP over the next 60 hours for a decent chunk of the subforum....not everyone seeing the storm of the century, but at least a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No map yet, but 12z RGEM is close to 20mm/0.80" total liquid for Chicago via metrogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No map yet, but 12z RGEM is close to 20mm/0.80" total liquid for Chicago via metrogram. NAm and the RGEM...line up the JMA and we can take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAm and the RGEM...line up the JMA and we can take it to the bank. Did you know they run a 6z JMA? I didn't, until 15 minutes ago. Enjoy. http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/jma/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 have a side bet going with friends for over/under at ORD for the 48 hour period from noon 31DEC to noon 02JAN for 11 inches....I impishly took the over as it would create a nice scoop for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Did you know they run a 6z JMA? I didn't, until 15 minutes ago. Enjoy. http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/jma/ storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z NAM bufkit gives me 15" of snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Geos working off a bender or what?!? Surprised he's not in here. 12z RGEM total QPF. Chicago and then along the MI/OH border FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 high stakes GFS rolling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Can I just have the 12z 4km NAM? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol, so far the GFS is weaker with the fgen banding...through 18 hours. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 no whammy, no whammy, no whammy. May have to have a celebratory drink a little early if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS = lame one of the larger inside 48 hours spreads I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 no whammy, no whammy, no whammy. May have to have a celebratory drink a little early if it verifies. whammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wish the NAM was just about 25 miles north, it's going to be an awful cutoff. These situations generally bring Ann Arbor 8 inches and Howell gets 3. Funny thing is we have more on the ground than AA does but they got a bigger storm than we have this year. I was surprised to get nearly 2" of fluff last night. Only thing we can hope if the front wave is stronger... BTW a couple of the SREF are about 15" for Howell ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow wise, GFS showing 5 inches less for Chicago than NAM was thru 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Snow wise, GFS showing 5 inches less for Chicago than NAM was thru 36hrs. at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 well, that was somewhat disappointing. But, it's only one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS = lame one of the larger inside 48 hours spreads I can remember. Well the model not giving least amount of ice in the last event was the GFS ... so GFS is anything but gospel ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 well, that was somewhat disappointing. But, it's only one model. RAP runs are coming in pretty stingy with the fgen band as well...really kills it off over NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 at least NAM 42hrs with 12 inches... GFS 42hrs with 7-8 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actually if trended towards the NAM. Stronger low in the plains and more E-W precip across IA and into IL on Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS did come north with round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actually if trended towards the NAM. Stronger low in the plains and more E-W precip across IA and into IL on Weds FGEN band might be udnerdone by the GFS...it isn't going to be a widespread snow maker but there should be a narrow band of relatively better snows that what's shown IMO. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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