Stevo6899 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Birds all over the place today. Think they're saying the nam might be right ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 9z SREF up to just shy of 10" at ORD Nice cluster at the top. And a floor around 5.0". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Honestly, I think it's a legit explanation. The 6z GFS seems to bring us some light snows on Thursday. With the cold temperatures, won't the ratios be good to maybe give us 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice cluster at the top. And a floor around 5.0". Not bad. yeah, definitely a nice little group there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actual QPF for YYZ may not improve that much but some good signs to be taken. If the other 12z models come in with a slower and stronger ul trough like the 12z NAM did, there's a chance to salvage this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Birds all over the place today. Think they're saying the nam might be right ... Squirrels are fat!! Go NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 depending on LE, the NAM is showing something close to a top 3 event in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 6z GFS seems to bring us some light snows on Thursday. With the cold temperatures, won't the ratios be good to maybe give us 2-4"? Cold temps don't automatically equal good ratios. You need strong dynamics and a deep dendritic growth zone. From my experience when we get fringed and it's very cold, the snow tends to be of a very fine, sandy quality. Sometimes as inefficient as 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 depending on LE, the NAM is showing something close to a top 3 event in my lifetime. Best climo. 14-16" with a nice weenie strip on the MI/OH border. Totals through 60... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Best climo. 14-16" with a nice weenie strip on the MI/OH border. Totals through 60... Best climo.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM looking better again with the second wave. 6z had all but lost it. Still 48+ hours out for that one, so maybe we can get some steroidal NAM trends in the next few runs...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking at radar should be able to squeak out An inch here. Hope the nam scores a coup for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Actual QPF for YYZ may not improve that much but some good signs to be taken. If the other 12z models come in with a slower and stronger ul trough like the 12z NAM did, there's a chance to salvage this storm. If that Vort max does not dip south of TN then we have a chance. Right now the models just dip that thing a bit to far south. The better model runs a few days ago (for the our areas) had the Vort Max going north of Memphis to Nashville (lifting a bit by Nashville). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Might be a speck of 1.00" liquid near Alek's crib on this run. Total QPF through 60 hours. What a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 come on GFS, no whammies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 wonder when geos! is going to wake up NYE party band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 snow falling in North Central Iowa already.... quality plumes Alek...knock on wood for your first bust low for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 9z SREF up to just shy of 10" at ORD. really nice cluster of big dogs as well. How do you generate those plots? Is it something you do on your own or is it online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How did the NAM perform in this time frame for the ice/rain storm ??? Crazy how far apart models are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How did the NAM perform in this time frame for the ice/rain storm ??? Crazy how far apart models are.... excellent IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How do you generate those plots? Is it something you do on your own or is it online? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/'>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Use the map to zoom and pick out your desired location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 quality length to that plume.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That is a nice LES band in Chicago. Wringley field cam should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the NAM's Canadian sister may follow suit. Maybe not as crazy of amounts, but it's a tick north and a bit juicier through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 snow being reported in Cedar Rapids....is this a little early? not extrapolating/implying anything from it....just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 snow being reported in Cedar Rapids....is this a little early? not extrapolating/implying anything from it....just wondering seems like the trend with the fgen snows has been quicker but i'm not sure. Band shouldn't starting getting more organized for a while though. nice to hear about the GGEM, baby step in the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like the NAM's Canadian sister may follow suit. Maybe not as crazy of amounts, but it's a tick north and a bit juicier through 24 hours. Holds the trend through 36 hours. Lolli over Josh's head at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RGEM has a 1011 low into southeast OH at 48 hours...and that's that. We'll have to see when the color total QPF become available, but it seemed like a better run for E IA, N IL, S WI, N IN, N OH, and S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 RGEM has a 1011 low into southeast OH at 48 hours...and that's that. We'll have to see when the color total QPF become available, but it seemed like a better run for N IL, S WI, N IN, N OH, and S MI. just nice to hear we've stopped the bleeding from some of yesterday's 12z runs. The floor for this one still looks like my best event since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wish the NAM was just about 25 miles north, it's going to be an awful cutoff. These situations generally bring Ann Arbor 8 inches and Howell gets 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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