AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM still looks great for the bottom two rows of counties in MI, but that is one scary looking cutoff. Hope we have seen the last of the southern adjustments though. With getting close to now-time, I dont imagine there will be huge leaps north or south. I wouldn't be surprised to see this stay south of SEMI completely honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Lol @ the side step around MI... High res does it too ? *with the jackpot totals Obv a good hit for the southern counties yeah (though trend is still south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 *with the jackpot totals Obv a good hit for the southern counties yeah (though trend is still south) Can't wait to watch this crush Toledo and get nothing here, so glad I wasted several days on this ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised to see this stay south of SEMI completely honestly. Then you are seeing something that no model has yet caught onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 For the EC getting blizzards all the time has been the theme since 2009. They need a change. And good luck with your snowstorm. Hopefully the models keep trending and the storm goes right on out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Zoomed in, entire 84 hours that includes the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 nice shift.... NAM finally calls the CMH crowd off the bench Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So brutal if that verifies. Uber tight gradients when you're on the outside looking in might be the toughest thing to take for a snow weenie. I feel your pain. GHD I got 2 inches of sleet no snow. 16-20 inches just North of me. Nov 30-Dec 1st 2006 yeah same except lots of ice. Jan 1st 1999. Was progged to get 15-20 inches of snow. Got 3 inches of heavy snow then 4-5 inches of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I feel your pain. GHD I got 2 inches of sleet no snow. 16-20 inches just North of me. Nov 30-Dec 1st 2006 yeah same except lots of ice. Jan 1st 1999. Was progged to get 15-20 inches of snow. Got 3 inches of heavy snow then 4-5 inches of sleet. everyone here has been there....many more times than in the jackpot. That's why we are such freaks about all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ALEK still looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Then you are seeing something that no model has yet caught onto. Ukmet has. But the ukmet is 4th behind the Euro, CMC, and GFS in verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hopefully the models keep trending and the storm goes right on out to sea. +1 Haha nah I hope they get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 everyone here has been there....many more times than in the jackpot. That's why we are such freaks about all of this. PERFECT post! So true too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 everyone here has been there....many more times than in the jackpot. That's why we are such freaks about all of this. I think you got like 2 feet in the dec 23-24th 2004 storm. We were set for 10-14 inches, then 9-13, then 7-12, then 5-9, then 3-6. We didn't get a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ukmet has. But the ukmet is 4th behind the Euro, CMC, and GFS in verification. Even the Ukmet has a few inches of snow. Apps was talking a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 These find a way to hit the blinker for us in toledo. Needless to say we have 33 trucks that have sat for two winters straight. Good luck to all of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ukmet has. But the ukmet is 4th behind the Euro, CMC, and GFS in verification. Actually the UKIE is 2nd (at least at 500 mb) the last time I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I think you got like 2 feet in the dec 23-24th 2004 storm. We were set for 10-14 inches, then 9-13, then 7-12, then 5-9, then 3-6. We didn't get a flake. trust me, I could make a list of 5 heartbreaks for every Dec'04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 everyone here has been there....many more times than in the jackpot. That's why we are such freaks about all of this. So true, oh, so true. I always look at pending snow events with a jaded eye.... kind of comes with the territory around here. We have gotten hammered many times... but, there were plenty of times where we were forecast, and then, nothing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Even the Ukmet has a few inches of snow. Apps was talking a complete miss. It's probably a little gutsy I know, but until this is fully sampled I'm not going to discount another south trend. The trend is definitely not your friend for DTW folks. Now watch the GFS/Euro come back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's probably a little gutsy I know, but until this is fully sampled I'm not going to discount another south trend. The trend is definitely not your friend for DTW folks. Now watch the GFS/Euro come back north. Well..basically the NAM came in line with the other models for this area and the cutoff. Snow is going to supposedly start here in as soon as 24 hours (not counting tonights snow). I will be shocked if it somehow goes COMPLETELY south of us....oh...and PISSED too. Im talking the whole event, ie, the frontogenesis snow.....I wouldnt be surprised if the second wave is a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 trust me, I could make a list of 5 heartbreaks for every Dec'04 I know. I was emphasizing on how we are a regional sub-forum but we are so large we have major differences in climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well..basically the NAM came in line with the other models for this area and the cutoff. Snow is going to supposedly start here in as soon as 24 hours (not counting tonights snow). I will be shocked if it somehow goes COMPLETELY south of us....oh...and PISSED too. Im talking the whole event, ie, the frontogenesis snow.....I wouldnt be surprised if the second wave is a complete miss. Yeah perhaps my statement was a bit overdone. The first wave of precip will probably scrape the lower 3 tiers of MI but that might not add up as quick. Regardless of that I think DTW finishes under .2" of QPF but may squeak out more than 4" purely on good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM has about .4 liquid here with gradually increasing ratios toward the end of the event. Would be a 4-6" type deal if this solution pans out but let's see if any other 00z runs support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z RGEM has some more life to it at the end of its run, with wave #2...compared to its "nothing happening" on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I know. I was emphasizing on how we are a regional sub-forum but we are so large we have major differences in climate that's so true. Btw, my most visible scar is from xmas eve 2002. One heartbreak that I still have nightmares about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z RGEM has some more life to it at the end of its run, with wave #2...compared to its "nothing happening" on the 18z run. Wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 00z NAM qpf numbers...north to south from south-central MI to southern OH. Total qpf, so it includes tonights snow (since all the qpf maps we have looked at included tonight). FNT: 0.13" PTK: 0.20"DET: 0.31" DTW: 0.41" TTF: 0.57" TOL: 0.78" FDY: 0.83" CMH: 0.33" CVG: 0.24" (some rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 nice shift.... NAM finally calls the CMH crowd off the bench Need it another 50-75 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Wagons north Wagons off the side of the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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