dmc76 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Blend of the GFS and NAM ATP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Going to be interesting to see how LOT handles headlines With the duration...Yes, it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 This is one of the first runs that has shown a perfect snow track for Toledo !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Alright GFS! Actually, the 11.5mm of precip is not a whole bunch, only 0.45". You would need some magic snow ratios to turn that into 9-10" of snow as the "clown plot" indicates. Edit It's a hit for Toledo on the ECMWF. I can't tell the total precipitation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Looks like the 12z GGEM went a touch south...and a touch weaker than its 0z run. Would get northern IN (FWA and SBN) into the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The end of the NAM run - moisture. Jackpot Brewers, RAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Despite the heavier snow over Illinois, the GFS gives us at least 24hrs of onshore winds and with a 300-400mb DGZ the fluff could add up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Going to be interesting to see how LOT handles headlines WWA Looks like the 12z GGEM went a touch south...and a touch weaker than its 0z run. Would get northern IN (FWA and SBN) into the fun. SSC ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 WWA SSC ftw? Nah, it was a black and white head fake. They update the fastest, so that's what I was going off. Though looking at the color maps, it is a little less wet/white than the 0z run...but that one was kind of bonkers. You still get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Nah, it was a black and white head fake. They update the fastest, so that's what I was going off. Though looking at the color maps, it is a little less wet/white than the 0z run...but that one was kind of bonkers. You still get buried. I'm not sold on the double digit numbers but location wise, I look prime. Wouldn't trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 12z Uncle at 72 hours. Congrats JOT-IKK-VPZ I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Despite the heavier snow over Illinois, the GFS gives us at least 24hrs of onshore winds and with a 300-400mb DGZ the fluff could add up nicely. Right here looks good for that setup. Cold 850's and a ENE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 fcst sounding loop for DPA from 3z Weds to 6z Thurs showing the impressive depth of the DGZ over a long duration. Cool stuff. http://i.picasion.com/pic76/c2d0ba2a6cbf48ae4f86814d156facce.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 WWA SSC ftw? What's the longest a WWA has gone for at LOT? It's going to be a long one if it is that. Edit: GGEM hammers the same areas as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS seemed to be SE of the OP up until the most recent run when a lot went amped (even one or two like the NAM). fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS seemed to be SE of the OP up until the most recent run when a lot went amped (even one or two like the NAM). fwiw. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ugh Wagons north. P-type issues for YBY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Bastardi take from twitter....Red 4-8...., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS seemed to be SE of the OP up until the most recent run when a lot went amped (even one or two like the NAM). fwiw.Hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 0z GGEM total precipitation through 126. Most moisture is of course is for the 3rd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Wagons north. P-type issues for YBY? no p type concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 no p type concerns. Eh, there are still GEFS members that are flat doo-doo. Still enough spread...but regardless, you're sitting good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The Bastardi take from twitter....Red 4-8...., I think my 3 year old can draw up a better map then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The new and improved, yet still really crappy 12z NAVGEM is a solid hit for Indiana. True desperation move on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah I wouldn't trade where I sit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think my 3 year old can draw up a better map then that. I think Garrett drew that. Could be wrong though. Same here Thundersnow. Good spot for LES/LEhS I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah I wouldn't trade where I sit Yeah the Dubuque/Savanna to Chicago corridor is looking golden. Sort of on the southern edge of things here, but I generally like where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 LOT might have a WSW window 01JAN somewhere in the 10z to 20Z timeframe ... otherwise an extended WWA is prolly the safest....perhaps upgrade a few counties to WSW once/if the highest deform juice becomes apparent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 LOT might have a WSW window 01JAN somewhere in the 10z to 20Z timeframe ... otherwise an extended WWA is prolly the safest....perhaps upgrade a few counties to WSW once/if the highest deform juice becomes apparent yep...still not sold on the healthy defo/LE feature but this sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 LOT might have a WSW window 01JAN somewhere in the 10z to 20Z timeframe ... otherwise an extended WWA is prolly the safest....perhaps upgrade a few counties to WSW once/if the highest deform juice becomes apparent If a full lake enhancement setup is realized, then a WSW would be needed for those areas. Haha, MKX will probably have some headline by Tuesday morning. Having said lake enhancement, the NAM hires will be interesting to see once the storm is within 60 hours. It did a good job of nailing down amounts late last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS seemed to be SE of the OP up until the most recent run when a lot went amped (even one or two like the NAM). fwiw. Am I correct in believing that the majority of the precip comes the evening of January 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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