Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even in the great winter of 1993-94, there were a few misses to our south. I remember Environment Canada calling for 2-4" of snow on Tuesday, January 4th, 1994 from a US east coast low, but nothing fell. On Tuesday, February 8th, 1994, EC was calling for 6-8", but only 3" fell as most of the snow fell state side to our south. I remember the storm of January 6-7, 1994 though. It was bitterly cold with snow throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah the Tue night wave is starting to look the most impressive on some of the models. RGEM looked pretty good for northern IL as well. That's one trend I'd like to see continue if the Wed wave continues to **** the bed. looks like a pretty broad swath of .3" or so on the 12z NMM and still snowing by 48 hrs, so most of N. IL should get close to advisory snows even if Wed is a non-starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I remember the storm of January 6-7, 1994 though. It was bitterly cold with snow throughout the day. I remember that one too. That had a lot of lake enhancement off Ontario. For the upcoming event this week, lake effect off Ontario can save this for us, albeit slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 At least we should get an inch of snow on New Year's Eve. Can take consolation in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Another tough call. I think the last time we had a well-modeled solution for a winter storm was GHD. The models sniffed that one out and barely wavered. Added lake moisture should help, I'm hoping for more than 6" IMBY thanks to that boost. Tonight's models should come in line, right? maybe? Either way, it's really starting to look like a nice storm for the northeast. Trends have been all over the place, but agreed that the general trend this year has been drier and drier on the models as the storm approaches thanks to the arctic air that's been dropping in so frequently compared to recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even the NAVGEM has jumped ship. What are we down to now...the FIM zeus and Dr. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Maybe we should change the thread title again to run-of-the-mill clipper? Hopefully we'll get a good hybrid clipper to actually happen in the next month or two. Still gonna ride my general 4-8" call for the QC and here. Still thinking 1-2" today/tonight, 2-3" tomorrow afternoon/night, and maybe 1-2" Wed/Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Even the NAVGEM has jumped ship. What are we down to now...the FIM zeus and Dr. No? yeah, Wed is a lost cause at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Latest SREF plume mean snowfall at DTW actually increased to 8.1" from its previous run of 6.9". The lowest sref member gives 1.8", the highest 16.3" (this includes tonights snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One possible reason for the southern shift this morning is that the AO is now negative (mentioned by Don S in the main thread). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 yeah, Wed is a lost cause at this point. Seems that way. Well, at least you guys and the southern MI crew have part 1 and 2 to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Blame SCC. Shoud have kept all of this in my good mojo clipper thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hourly here has me down for 9.4" when all said and done.. Hard to believe that after the trends this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Blame SCC. Shoud have kept all of this in my good mojo clipper thread. Problem might not be him per se...might be that ridiculous title of hybrid frisbee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 poor Hoosier went 10-15" right before the 12z disaster runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If the GFS/GEM are correct...the whole complection of the event has changed here. Snow should begin New Years eve and continue mostly through New Years day. The initial frontogen snow looks to be actually better than it did, but what was once the main "wave" now looks like suppressed garbage. Before it looked like the main show would be New Years afternoon into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Roger Smith, if you are reading this, what are your thoughts on the latest trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 RPM showing the LES plume nicely. Just nudge that thing a little west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 poor Hoosier went 10-15" right before the 12z disaster runs No reason to back down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 7-10 split looks solid for LAF. T - 1.0" final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 RPM snow map looks believable for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I am terrible trying to decifer dendritic growth, DGZ, etc....anyone have any idea how those work in frontogenesis snow? Temps look to be in the mid-teens....but would 0.30" liquid yield 3-4" of sugar snow or 5-7" of fluff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No reason to back down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 One bad model run and everyone's jumping ship. Lol Good thing you guys aren't forecasters, the public would hear 6-10" at the 5 o'clock newscast followed by an inch or less at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Two waves in question are still out over the nrn Pacific as Hoosier said and don't come onshore in Canada until around 12/15z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 would love to see the euro show a turtle town special just to keep the madness going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If synoptic underperforms then I'm going to have to hope that lake effect goes crazy for a while, which looks like a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Two waves in question are still out over the nrn Pacific as Hoosier said and don't come onshore in Canada until around 12/15z tomorrow. gfsNA_500_avort_024.gif The problem is the **** across Mexico that what supposed to just piddle away into nothingness, all of a sudden the 12z models want to make that the big show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 would love to see the euro show a turtle town special just to keep the madness going. If the Euro hold its ground we are in for one heck of a model war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The problem is the **** across Mexico that what supposed to just piddle away into nothingness, all of a sudden the 12z models want to make that the big show. noticed that clusterfuuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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