toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Scratch the GGEM off your list. Wagons way south. Toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 2nd wave is 48-60 hours out and it doesn't look much different from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, so I generally agree with the map, tapering off amounts to the north a bit sooner than they do. My thoughts. 1:frontogenic snows tuesday night. GFS actually looked better in this regard...some omega sneaking in, great ratios, etc but this is going to be a really narrow band of 2-4" with razor gradients on both sides. I'd favor IL over WI at this point. Similar setups have also trended drier all winter. 2: what was at once the main show associated with the low...looking like a miss south for MKE and possibly even Chicago. 0-2" heaviest way south. 3: LE...wildcard but historically a 1-4" deal. Liking my chances for 6"+ but it's going to be super drawn out and will need some help from the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Pretty much, lets ignore days worth of consistency because one model came out and looked like crap, obviously no storm. Whats interesting...is that with the GFS it isnt even a matter of north or south with the heaviest snowband...it has just totally lost the heaviest snowband. A narrow swath from ORD through DTW is still the "jackpot" so says the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Amazing how south of I-70 in Indiana continues to make out like bandits! Well, GGEM isn't even that great for them. I mean, it's waaayyy south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM is a junk model but the trend towards a lame/south final piece is loud and clear. SSC ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Scratch the GGEM off your list. Wagons way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The wave that will ultimately affect the evolution of this is still out in the Pacific. I know it's a popular card to play but it's at least possible that we see a better trend once it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 No it isn't Mike. GFS looks odd in how it slides that low way SE. It looks like convective feedback. Lets see what GGEM and EURO have to say. What a proud weenie. I'd have to slide with SSC. Doesnt look great for us atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ex past facto...but I wanna make out with P008 of the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 No it isn't Mike. GFS looks odd in how it slides that low way SE. It looks like convective feedback. Lets see what GGEM and EURO have to say. Looks sound to me. Seriously, there isn't a storm you don't like. You produce wishcasts rather than forecasts. I'm sorry if I sound churlish but you'd have more credibility if you conceded the storms that are lost causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What a proud weenie. I'd have to slide with SSC. Doesnt look great for us atm. I'm leaning towards punting this event for Toronto, but I'll wait until after the 12z Euro. If the Euro goes the wagons south route, it's game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Toss. ok, i get it now. You're a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm leaning towards punting this event for Toronto, but I'll wait until after the 12z Euro. If the Euro goes the wagons south route, it's game, set, match. Fair enough. I'd be stupefied if it doesn't come south some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 ok, i get it now. You're a troll. Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Are you guys going to start arguing like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm leaning towards punting this event for Toronto, but I'll wait until after the 12z Euro. If the Euro goes the wagons south route, it's game, set, match. The models this season havent been great and have zero credibility beyond 24 hours. But at this point in time, their is no viable solution for us. Majority of models now keep everything confined towards the south. However, 0z Euro did show about 0.8 qpf, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wrong. clear out your PMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The wave that will ultimately affect the evolution of this is still out in the Pacific. I know it's a popular card to play but it's at least possible that we see a better trend once it makes landfall. one of the players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Are you guys going to start arguing like this? Holy annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Are you guys going to start arguing like this? No. TorontoBlizzard is my buddy, guy, and friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM maintains a dum-dum sized lollie over MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have to agree with canuck. I'm punting this storm. There will be another, though. It looks to be an exciting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The GFS looks awful.... The only place that wins from that scenario is the lake belt. This would probably trigger LES after the system blows by. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM maintains a dum-dum sized lollie over MBY This is almost a no-lose scenario for you with the lake contribution...of course some outcomes are better than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 one of the players gfs_npac_000_500_vort_ht.png Out in the data void of the north Pacific... Not terrible, not that great either. LES is looking better and will look even better if the low bombs out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 be a shame if another biggie potential can't be realized. potential was there for a few to really clean up but now we're morphing in to a share the wealth in meh parts except for chicago area if they can clean up with some bonus lake fluff. share the wealth events even if on the meh scale of events are always nice because it sure gets boring on the board in congrats madison events like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is almost a no-lose scenario for you with the lake contribution...of course some outcomes are better than others. Which is why i'm feeling good about my 6.999996" first and final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 on the plus side, the tuesday night band continues to looks pretty healthy across the models....decent banding in a narrowly focused band across N IL looking likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I have to agree with canuck. I'm punting this storm. There will be another, though. It looks to be an exciting winter. Even in the great winter of 1993-94, there were a few misses to our south. I remember Environment Canada calling for 2-4" of snow on Tuesday, January 4th, 1994 from a US east coast low, but nothing fell. On Tuesday, February 8th, 1994, EC was calling for 6-8", but only 3" fell as most of the snow fell state side to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 on the plus side, the tuesday night band continues to looks pretty healthy across the models....decent banding in a narrowly focused band across N IL looking likely. Yeah the Tue night wave is starting to look the most impressive on some of the models. RGEM looked pretty good for northern IL as well. That's one trend I'd like to see continue if the Wed wave continues to **** the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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