michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 looking forward to my first warning event since GHD Probably will compact to 3" quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOT will probably be under some pressure for headlines this afternoon. If the 12z GFS/Euro bring the goods, maybe even a watch for lakeside counties. Can't argue with that at all....and WWA for the rest the only caveat, which LOT brought up I believe, is how much of a break will there be between tomorrow night's action and Wednesday's main precip shield action...and what that does to the semantics of headlines... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 timing kind of sucks...might have to take it easy NYE so I don't spend the storm curled up in bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Models are showing inversion heights rising to near 700mb by 12z Thursday and about a 12hr period of favorable wind direction for MKE so maybe we see a dominant band form over the lake that shifts east as winds turn NW. Yeah, I think Thursday (or perhaps very late Wednesday) is when the lake contribution will really get going in earnest and likely peak as inversion heights don't look very good on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z Nam bufkit 13" of snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 in their discussion LOT mentions how the prolonged event has prevented a watch from being issued at this time. But with a very good possibility of +6" and the NYE travel impacts, I would think a headline is coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yeah, I think Thursday (or perhaps very late Wednesday) is when the lake contribution will really get going in earnest and likely peak as inversion heights don't look very good on Wednesday. inversion heights suck on Wed but you can definitely see a little extra moisture getting pulled back after 12z Wed on the 4km hi-res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 timing kind of sucks...might have to take it easy NYE so I don't spend the storm curled up in bed. 36-48 hour bender. You can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 inversion heights suck on Wed but you can definitely see a little extra moisture getting pulled back after 12z Wed on the 4km hi-res Yeah, I'm not saying no enhancement before Thursday, just that it will increase then and be more noticeable with system snow winding down and potential dominant band rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 36-48 hour bender. You can do it. i've never been able to do that, even as a kid. I crash early and hard. Didn't even make it all night during GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 With wave #3 continuing to diminish, at least for western parts of the subforum, the best Iowa snow should fall in the northeast part of the state where they'll get snow from wave #2. At this point I may be lucky to get 3" of snow, especially if the southern edge of the Tuesday snow is sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 i've never been able to do that, even as a kid. I crash early and hard. Didn't even make it all night during GHD. That's unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 That's unfortunate. I stayed up through the best of it but was like a million beers deep and crashed hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I stayed up through the best of it but was like a million beers deep and crashed hard Why can't the best storms be during the day? They never are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why can't the best storms be during the day? They never are. probably because daylight makes up the minority of the hours in a day during the winter. and this will be a daylight event. i'll just be hungover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can't post a BUFKIT profile now but this will do. NAM CGX forecast sounding valid 15z Thursday around the time inversion heights peak. Heights approach 700 mb. There's considerable drying above the inversion by this time as the synoptic system moves out but all in all this looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 probably because daylight makes up the minority of the hours in a day during the winter. and this will be a daylight event. i'll just be hungover. I would even count evening as daytime since most are awake, I'd be happy if that was the case, but the last few 6"+ storms had their heaviest rates overnight between 11pm and 7am for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS looks solid...locked and loaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Since I'm in go big or go home mode, my early guess would be something like 7-10" in the northern/central LOT cwa away from the lake. Near the lake, more like 10-15" with locally higher amounts not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Since I'm in go big or go home mode, my early guess would be something like 7-10" in the northern/central LOT cwa away from the lake. Near the lake, more like 10-15" with locally higher amounts not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wed system looks like shiit on the GFS. South and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 South? and face palm seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z GFS, the juiced-up hybrid clipper of a couple days ago is now little more than some weak, lagging energy that dives well south of the I80 corridor. Cedar Rapids' precip is down to only 0.16" for the week. ugh At least some of these models screwed up badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Wed system looks like shiit on the GFS. South and weak Yeah, even the second wave only drops 0.3-0.5" QPF in its jackpot zone, the NAM I suppose was leading the way in some regard if this 3rd wave ends up getting squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Feb 2007 blizzard was a good daytime storm. GFS...is kinda different in the later stages. Goes to town sorta on STL...and then on east. LAF gets fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 love that place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GFS has had ensemble members showing a solution like the 12z OP for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 12z GFS, the juiced-up hybrid clipper of a couple days ago is now little more than some weak, lagging energy that dives well south of the I80 corridor. Cedar Rapids' precip is down to only 0.16" for the week. ugh Yeah not too impressive anymore lol. I was looking forward to the 3rd wave as sort of a grand finale to the clipper parade this week. Looks like it will be another mirage storm for some of us unfortunately lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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