A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 early guess...NAM comes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Why have you been so negative about this storm? Because I've been doing this for 15 years and I know a dog when I see one. Go to the NARR page on the PSU ewall site and look at the synoptic setup for our 6"+ snowstorms. Compare them to the model depictions for this storm. Notice the contrast? There are exceptions sure but I'm playing probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Because I've been doing this for 15 years and I know a dog when I see one. Go to the NARR page on the PSU ewall site and look at the synoptic setup for our 6"+ snowstorms. Compare them to the model depictions for this storm. Notice the contrast? There are exceptions sure but I'm playing probabilities. So you're ignoring the EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Because I've been doing this for 15 years and I know a dog when I see one. Go to the NARR page on the PSU ewall site and look at the synoptic setup for our 6"+ snowstorms. Compare them to the model depictions for this storm. Notice the contrast? There are exceptions sure but I'm playing probabilities. So you're ignoring the EE rule? This is an exchange I will never forget. serious thoughtful reply... but the EE rule!!11!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 are people going to be using the new NWS snow measuring guidelines...could make a difference in measure amounts given the long duration and likely compaction of low water content fluff. lol-copter 12z NAM will relent a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is an exchange I will never forget. serious thoughtful reply... but the EE rule!!11!! I'm still cracking up over "get a load of stebo-lite" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lol-copter 12z NAM will relent a bit. 'copter and yeah, it's begining the inevitable trend towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 So you're ignoring the EE rule? NAM isn't in the northern camp anymore and the EURO has been garbage all winter. Climatology is the trump card here. This is a climatologically unfavourable setup for us. Unless the s/w coming ashore in BC is a lot stronger than what models are currently forecasting, I'm satisfied that this is a -SN event for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam blinked further south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam blinked further south now. 6z blinked, 12z jumped...should be a good hit for us. Really liking my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 gonna get fringed on the NAM. Nicely fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 classic big dog look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 classic big dog look NAM going to try some late amplification to save us northern peckers from a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nam is awful from run to run. Detroit should be happy while 50 million others suffer in misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM/GFS both take the 850 low over Chicago...not ideal but it works I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Results for Chicago and southern MI look Euro-ish. Which is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice lake effect band on the Nam fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM/GFS both take the 850 low over Chicago...not ideal but it works I guess 12Z NAM with an inch (QPF) lolli in the heart of Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Results for Chicago and southern MI look Euro-ish. Which is pretty good. positive trends. SREF mean up to ~7.5 for ORD which I blieves is the higest of the year (not positive on that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice lake effect band on the Nam fwiw the deepening off to the east could really help with our LE chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 14" Alek lolli on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 14" Alek lolli on this run. best climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Nice lake effect band on the Nam fwiw the deepening off to the east could really help with our LE chances I like the setup especially with cold 850 temps sinking south. Might keep this event from being mediocre up this way since I think best synoptic snow will be in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I like the setup especially with cold 850 temps sinking south. Might keep this event from being mediocre up this way since I think best synoptic snow will be in IL looking forward to getting this into better range for some of the hi-res guidance...nice looking signal for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 it will come in drier at 12z like the GFS...outside unpredictable LE, QPF should be under .50" for our subforum with this setup. Don't underestimate banding potential with this setup. Even if we see an overall drying trend I think it will be enough to push some areas over .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Alek=buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Impressive alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Alek=buried. looking forward to my first warning event since GHD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOT Point forecast now listing "snow likely" from Tuesday night thru Thursday. Listing 2-4" Tuesday night & no amounts yet for the other days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOT will probably be under some pressure for headlines this afternoon. If the 12z GFS/Euro bring the goods, maybe even a watch for lakeside counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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