cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro dropped QPF again for most of Iowa and into the QCA. My earlier 3-6" call for the QCA with the Wed event is looking a bit bullish if the Euro wins out, which it probably will. Gonna keep riding it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro appears a bit less focused with the wave 3 precip across Iowa versus the previous runs. Cedar Rapids was down to 0.4" on the 12z and now 0.3" on the 00z. I've given up hope for anything big. Now I'll be happy with 3-5". Yeah it's looking like the usual suspects will win out again. The Dubuque/Madison/Geos triangle is always hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro dropped QPF again for most of Iowa and into the QCA. My earlier 3-6" call for the QCA with the Wed event is looking a bit bullish if the Euro wins out, which it probably will. Gonna keep riding it for now. Ratios might help you provided no more drying trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Winds off the lake for eastern WI, NE IL from 54-96 hours. 850's -11°C - -18°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 So all models roughly stayed the same except the NAM going North. It will be interesting to see what the offices do with a decently long duration event, that said right now I could see the bottom 4 tiers of counties in Michigan in a WSW by Tuesday Morning, if all holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 what we looking for? a 990mb low over Columbus soon? We can only hope. According to AccuPro it's only 8mb away... 998mb at CMH! But seriously as long as we can keep a good consensus with the global models I'd imagine this is an I-80/90 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I will take the euro and ukmet please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Ice Road Truckers may be filming in Sheboygan at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 6z NAM did come south. Double digits for the nrn tier of counties in IL. Better here too. Easy to see on COD's site in the floater sector with total QPF being zoomed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The nam is funny. I'd think this is the end of the flat Northern solutions. Since that just ain't happening with the confluence over the lakes, vort strength, backside jet strength and pv position. This should end up a wide spread event with a localized region of higher snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Usually I am not critical of a NWS forecast, but mentioning only 3-5" snowfall at this junction when no model shows that little is a bit too conservative if you ask me. This is from DTX this morning. GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD SET-UP FOR SNOW...WHICH COULD BE MODERATE OREVEN HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTOTHE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE AND A COMBINATIONOF LIFT FROM FGEN AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT GENERATING SNOWWITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GOODMID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP THIS LIFT BE REALIZED. GFSFORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LOOK FAIRLY SATURATEDUP THROUGH 300-400MB WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND STRONGLYSUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE (AS DO THE REST OF THE MODELSTHROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT). WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW STILL INQUESTION...SO IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE.CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM PLACE THE BEST MOISTURE (2 G/KG OF SPECIFICHUMIDITY) AND ASCENT FROM THE OHIO BORDER NORTHWARD TO JUST SHY OFTHE I-69 CORRIDOR...PER CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS. GFS/NAM/GEM MODELSSHOW THE TROUGH AXIS COMING THROUGH ON THURSDAY...ENDINGSNOWFALL...WHILE THE EURO IS SLOWER AND ALLOWS THE SNOWFALL TO BLEEDMORE INTO THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO LET MODEL DIFFERENCES SORTTHEMSELVES OUT BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS HIGH. FORNOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT A 3-5 INCH SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTHE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FORECAST GRIDS TO START OUT.AMOUNTS AND TIMING...AS TYPICAL...WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS WE GETCLOSER. ONE FINAL THOUGHT...IF THE TRACK TRENDS MORE TOWARDS AFURTHER NORTH SOLUTION (EVEN MORE THAN THE NAM NOW) WE COULD HAVE TOCONTEND WITH SOME DRIER AIR ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERNPORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD CUT INTO SNOW TOTALS. This certainly doesn't gel with what GRR is saying either: ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROMMONTANA TOWARD NRN IL/IN. MOST OF THE RECENT CLIPPERS HAVE TRAVELEDACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS ONE WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH AND HAVE ABIGGER IMPACT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. INITIALLY...MOISTURE IN THE LOWERTROP WILL INCREASE VIA ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOOKING AT THE I285 SFC WESEE QUICK SATURATION. MODEST LIFT OCCURS FOR AN EXTENDED TIME FRAMEFROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ACTUALLY INTO THURSDAY.SO...THIS LIKES LIKE A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT FROM TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH THURSDAY. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OFTHE CWA LOOKS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LONG DURATION IMPACT MAYNOT BE HIGH. A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER RIDGETODAY... DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUSSHARPING THE TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE COUPLEDJET BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE RESULT INCYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SYSTEM THEN TRACKSSOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARDTHE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTH OFLOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWEST WITH THISSYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 4 CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECWMF HAVESLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. I AM FAVORING THE SLOWERECMWF WITH THIS EVENT. IN ANY EVENT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESYSTEM IS WHAT CAUSES OUR SNOW STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.SINCE THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT FORM UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS EAST OF THISAREA I DO NOT SEE THIS AS A MAJOR SNOW STORM BUT THE PROLONGEDPERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY RESULT IN STORM TOTAL OF 6 TO 8 INCHES NEARAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Usually I am not critical of a NWS forecast, but mentioning only 3-5" snowfall at this junction when no model shows that little is a bit too conservative if you ask me. This is from DTX this morning. This certainly doesn't gel with what GRR is saying either: it is still 60 hours out there or more. I just hope it arrives in time for it to snow during the Winter Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 it is still 60 hours out there or more. I just hope it arrives in time for it to snow during the Winter Classic. Sure it is 60 hours out, but 3-5" is a low ball and a small range, GRR in their HWO went with 4-8" which is a much better range at this junction it covers the unlikely prospect of a low ball but also puts out awareness of a higher end snowfall, which given the day it looks to occur I'd rather err on the side of caution and have a higher awareness considering the amount of people that will be traveling on New Years. Not to mention the model guidance which is clearly much above 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DTW will be lucky to see 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 Think we'll see some further southward adjustments as exemplified in the 6z NAM/GFS. Not massive, but enough for me to really be liking my sub 2" call for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 DTW will be lucky to see 3-5" Reasoning or just the usual trolling with no merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Reasoning or just the usual trolling with no merit? just about every single NW flow event this winter has trended drier inside 48 hours. you're right around 6" now, so factor in the overdone QPF and likely track adjustment south and bam, 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 just about every single NW flow event this winter has trended drier inside 48 hours. you're right around 6" now, so factor in the overdone QPF and likely track adjustment south and bam, 3-5" We'll see, most global models have us closer to 9 inches and the NAM just fell in line with that as well. Not sure where you are seeing 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 are people going to be using the new NWS snow measuring guidelines...could make a difference in measure amounts given the long duration and likely compaction of low water content fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We'll see, most global models have us closer to 9 inches and the NAM just fell in line with that as well. Not sure where you are seeing 6". I'm on the board for 5" at DTW. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 are people going to be using the new NWS snow measuring guidelines...could make a difference in measure amounts given the long duration and likely compaction of low water content fluff. That is for Co-op observers around the area, and most haven't been so far from what I have been seeing in the reports locally/regionally. It also doesn't apply to manned stations like ORD/MDW/DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Models are showing inversion heights rising to near 700mb by 12z Thursday and about a 12hr period of favorable wind direction for MKE so maybe we see a dominant band form over the lake that shifts east as winds turn NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Models are showing inversion heights rising to near 700mb by 12z Thursday and about a 12hr period of favorable wind direction for MKE so maybe we see a dominant band form over the lake that shifts east as winds turn NW. the trend towards a more impressive east coast storm certainly makes the LE picture a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GRR wont abandon till this does.. Actually decided to follow this model again after seeing GRR hail it in a few AFDs recently.. See what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My model of choice this morning is the 6z nogaps. Morphed into a solution in which all emphasis is on the southern plains low and it's track from the northern gulf up the apps before a transfer. Nice hit for the eastern flanks of the subforum. ...beggers can't be choosers, I'm riding her til noon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Think we'll see some further southward adjustments as exemplified in the 6z NAM/GFS. Not massive, but enough for me to really be liking my sub 2" call for Toronto. 0z euro run is just awesome for YYZ. Text output has 0.87" of QPF with amazing ratios (most likely in the 15-20:1 range). H85 temps between -13 and -20c throughout the storm. Sfc temps -14 to -17c. 0z euro ensembles also jogged north quite a bit with 0.6-0.7" of QPF along the immediate lake shore and 0.5-0.6" inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Think we'll see some further southward adjustments as exemplified in the 6z NAM/GFS. Not massive, but enough for me to really be liking my sub 2" call for Toronto.Why have you been so negative about this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 the hi-res nmm has done well picking up on early drying trends with these systems...looks healthy for now but it will be something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is the model with the highest moisture ? 2 storms in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is the model with the highest moisture ? 2 storms in a row? it will come in drier at 12z like the GFS...outside unpredictable LE, QPF should be under .50" for our subforum with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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