A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 early RAP/HRRR/RUC guidance on the north side of guidance with the fgen band although that is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 12:48 PM, Chicago WX said: My Indiana calls. Potential higher for FWA and SBN, especially SBN if the fgen snows over perform. Might be too bullish for LAF as we're stuck in no man's land between the initial banding...and the follow up wave that passes to the south. With that, IND may have a chance to go a little higher if the more "vigorous" wave #2 solutions pan out. FWA: 3-5" IND: 1-2" LAF: 1-2" OKK: 2-4" MIE: 2-4" SBN: 5-7" Good luck getting accurate reports from SBN. The last I heard, they once again do not have an official snow observer. I'm kind of liking where I sit. My snowfall prediction may bust hard for FWA, but I don't care if I get 5" or more, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 early guess, 12z NAM stays north/wet...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Pretty much as good as I can expect it to be. For us locally this is as widespread and even as it ever gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:39 PM, IWXwx said: Good luck getting accurate reports from SBN. The last I heard, they once again do not have an official snow observer. I'm kind of liking where I sit. My snowfall prediction may bust hard for FWA, but I don't care if I get 5" or more, lol. Yeah, that sucks about SBN. I'll just have to go by local COOP/CoCoRaHS observers to verify. And yeah, looking good up there. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 12:48 PM, Chicago WX said: My Indiana calls. Potential higher for FWA and SBN, especially SBN if the fgen snows over perform. Might be too bullish for LAF as we're stuck in no man's land between the initial banding...and the follow up wave that passes to the south. With that, IND may have a chance to go a little higher if the more "vigorous" wave #2 solutions pan out. FWA: 3-5" IND: 1-2" LAF: 1-2" OKK: 2-4" MIE: 2-4" SBN: 5-7" Yeah, definitely looks like 1-2" is a good call at best around here.. I had about 10 flakes in my driveway this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM is super narrow with the fgen band, like downtown north to Geos, almost an I90 north event. Definitely a brief period of pound town rates over the far north side if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Slight tick north with the fgen band on the 12z NAM. Should be a good one for N IL, S WI, far N IN, and S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:35 PM, IWXwx said: QUICK NOTE OF CONTD FLUX WITH 06 UTC NAM BENT ON DOUBLING DOWN ACRS NRN TWO COUNTY TIER OF CWA WITH BOTH EVENTS...SEEMINGLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ON FAST SIDE WITH MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL WED AND LARGELY DISMISSED. OVERALL...06 UTC NAM EXCLUDED... I don't want to burst the MI posters' bubble, but Pat Murphy at IWX says don't put your eggs in the NAM basket. Any MI poster holding a lot of hope on the NAM are just setting themselves up for massive disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:55 PM, Mottster said: Yeah, definitely looks like 1-2" is a good call at best around here.. I had about 10 flakes in my driveway this morning! Woke up to a covering here. I was pleasantly surprised. Hopefully, my 1-2" for us isn't too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:57 PM, Chicago WX said: Slight tick north with the fgen band on the 12z NAM. Should be a good one for N IL, S WI, far N IN, and S MI. looks like about a 9 hour period of good ~1/3-1/2" per hour snows for my area. 3-6 WWA looking golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:42 PM, A-L-E-K said: early guess, 12z NAM stays north/wet...we'll see Bo storm it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM still way north with round 2....brief lull and then a fat snow band right along I80/88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:59 PM, A-L-E-K said: looks like about a 9 hour period of good ~1/3-1/2" per hour snows for my area. 3-6 WWA looking golden. Gaining strength for you at 27 36 hours, with more to come. Gonna be a very nice run for you through southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 1:35 PM, IWXwx said: QUICK NOTE OF CONTD FLUX WITH 06 UTC NAM BENT ON DOUBLING DOWN ACRS NRN TWO COUNTY TIER OF CWA WITH BOTH EVENTS...SEEMINGLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ON FAST SIDE WITH MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL WED AND LARGELY DISMISSED. OVERALL...06 UTC NAM EXCLUDED... I don't want to burst the MI posters' bubble, but Pat Murphy at IWX says don't put your eggs in the NAM basket. Oh by no means do I expect the nam to verify. ..it woulfd just be awesome if it did. 6z gfs/rgem bumped up their qpf in southern MI too though. So I can't complain about where I sit. Expecting a long duration snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 3:59 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Epic horseshoe patterned screwhole around the Lakes. Reminds me of jolly times back in 2009-10. I have pretty much agreed with your posts. Thats why have not even been online much till today. For northern areas like MBY to Toronto this just is not the set-up we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:02 PM, Chicago WX said: Gaining strength for you at 36 hours, with more to come. Gonna be a very nice run for you through southern MI. NAM really doubling down, going to pull off a sweet coup or go down in flames. Luckily even the less favorable solutions look decent up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Best run for Chicago and Detroit yet? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 NAM looks delicious lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:07 PM, Chicago WX said: Best run for Chicago and Detroit yet? Wow. classic pre-event unrealistic expectations setter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ajdos taking this run to CHASE bank. Geos may run out of !!!'s. And I'm singing High and Dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:09 PM, Gilbertfly said: NAM looks delicious lmao hoping this is one of those systems where we spend the next year or two saying "remember that one time the NAM was right" when it's radically different than everything else on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:11 PM, A-L-E-K said: classic pre-event unrealistic expectations setter It would not be a storm if there was not a model run showing a historic Detroit event. We have to get that Rant thread busy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 At H5 NAM is slower and digs the main piece of energy more than at 0z and 6z. Lead wave is a lost cause for YYZ but the slow/more amplified main wave may get its snow further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4km NAM will probably have some 14-16" lollies if LE delivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:13 PM, A-L-E-K said: hoping this is one of those systems where we spend the next year or two saying "remember that one time the NAM was right" when it's radically different than everything else on the table. Better sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:13 PM, A-L-E-K said: hoping this is one of those systems where we spend the next year or two saying "remember that one time the NAM was right" when it's radically different than everything else on the table. lol....but in all honesty there was much better sampling for the "Wed night system" in today's 12Z model runs....so let's see if it's a trend for the suite or just the NAM doing NAM things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:15 PM, Chicago WX said: Better sampling. hey...you stole my weenie....I mean thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 9z SREF up to just shy of 10" at ORD. really nice cluster of big dogs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 On 12/31/2013 at 2:17 PM, Gilbertfly said: hey...you stole my weenie....I mean thunder Honestly, I think it's a legit explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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