SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I personally thought it was going to show a SECS by hour 18 at H5. It looked even better then 6z. Might be true, but also might be feedback. H7 was nearly perfect with the GOM connection with more energy at H5. I personally would not use the EURO/GFS after 12z, and would rather use the SR and NAM/RGEM models. Interesting storm for sure. Thought all along, it would have surprises. Thoughts on ratios? 12:1 or 15:1? Ratios are going to be highly variable. Depending on how quickly the precip shield expands and how fast the upper level temps run away. I'd say an average of 12-15 is a good safe bet. Though again, I want to bring up partially ignoring some of the .01-.05 precip pieces progged. So I would probably cut my liquid totals by .15/.2 if you're in a fringe area (presently N. MD/SC PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ratios are going to be highly variable. Depending on how quickly the precip shield expands and how fast the upper level temps run away. I'd say an average of 12-15 is a good safe bet. Though again, I want to bring up partially ignoring some of the .01-.05 precip pieces progged. So I would probably cut my liquid totals by .15/.2 if you're in a fringe area (presently N. MD/SC PA) I live N of PHL(Central Bucks County) NAM would still give me around a foot, with ratios factored in. I will take half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm inclined to believe the RGEM precip amounts. Haven't fully digested it, but If I were a betting man, I'd bet on taking NAM temps aloft and RGEM precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What does it show? Not on WxBell yet. RGEM shows .6-.8 QPF for the region, which, given the ratios, would translate to 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is going to be very interesting to see what the 12z gfs and Euro especially show, after 4 days of wild swings and what seems to be verging on more of a consensus among models. Not seeing the Euro as the final arbiter, more curiosity. It's kind of out there by itself at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is going to be very interesting to see what the 12z gfs and Euro especially show, after 4 days of wild swings and what seems to be verging on more of a consensus among models. Not seeing the Euro as the final arbiter, more curiosity. It's kind of out there by itself at this point. h5 continues to get better and better on GFS. 12z GFS almost got the CCB going over our area where it was way offshore at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone noticing the inverted trough the NAM/GFS are showing over us as the storm pulls away, could really enhannce someone's totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 they rarely work out as modeled this far out....would be real cautious looking at that Anyone noticing the inverted trough the NAM/GFS are showing over us as the storm pulls away, could really enhannce someone's totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 they rarely work out as modeled this far out....would be real cautious looking at that Yeah, that could happen anywhere, or it could not happen at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Bumping my expected totals up to 4-6" seeing today's model runs. ECM has been off it's game and burned me once with anemic qpf in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 they rarely work out as modeled this far out....would be real cautious looking at that I agree, I just think its something to keep in the back of your head for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Going to be a fun snowstorm growing progressively colder with high ratios second half of the event. A cold storm like the blizz of 83 with less snow This time the high end of predicted snow amounts more likely to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro appears slightly more tucked in, perhaps a little quicker. Wetter, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's the Euro 12z Snowfall map through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess I need to upgrade with EVERYTHING wetter now... 4-8 for Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z data continues to show a solid 4" to 6" event here in NW Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's the Euro 12z Snowfall map through 54 hours. Out of curiosity, do you manually input the ratio, is it set as a default of 10:1, or does it compute the correct ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 A most interesting qpf field on the ecm with lower numbers on long island and southern new england and the increasing numbers by DC this run a head scratcher but I will take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess I need to upgrade with EVERYTHING wetter now... 4-8 for Trenton. Many you flip every other model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Now going with 5"-10" here. Will refine 0z tonight. RGEM/NAM/SREF lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess I need to upgrade with EVERYTHING wetter now... 4-8 for Trenton. That's the same range I'm upgrading central bucks county, pa to. I think that's a safe range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 That's the same range I'm upgrading central bucks county, pa to. I think that's a safe range right now. Given the flips and flops its a good place I think. I can definitely see going HIGHER but certainly not ready to do that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ray, if we only had a better blocking mechanism to slow this down....its a damn juicy system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ray, if we only had a better blocking mechanism to slow this down....its a damn juicy system! The cold air will certainly help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah, ratios should easily reach 12:1 - 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's the Euro 12z Snowfall map through 54 hours. Thanks for the map.....I like that little 6"+ snow bubble over the airport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The cold air will certainly help too. I think when all is said in done Ray that the cold air mixing with deeper moisture off the Sub Tropical Jet creating the higher ratio snows will be the telling tale of who gets what and who is happy and sorely disappointed and said I told you so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Guess I need to upgrade with EVERYTHING wetter now... 4-8 for Trenton. I'm on my phone the rest of the day so reading models/maps is going to be difficult at best. Thoughts for your coal cracker friend up in the Skook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone see the cras? It appears the southern s/w is a beast. Has a mecs at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Anyone see the cras? ummm Wow!!! Hmmm now is this possible with a rapidly rising NAO from Neutral to Positive with Cold trying to come in at the same time You BET!!! The timing must be absolutely perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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