Fields27 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hopefully the nam gives whatever it is smoking to the gfs and euro. Not sure how the 6z gfs looked but I'm assuming it's about the same since nobody really talked about it. Can we get another euro 180* flip or not...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hopefully the nam gives whatever it is smoking to the gfs and euro. Not sure how the 6z gfs looked but I'm assuming it's about the same since nobody really talked about it. Can we get another euro 180* flip or not...? GFS is wetter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6z gfs bounced back from 00z dip. Supports 3-5 in area with good ratios. More to the N+E of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6z gfs bounced back from 00z dip. Supports 3-5 in area with good ratios. More to the N+E of Trenton. Nice changes but still nowhere near the nam. Hopefully by 12z we can get a compromise with the models in between the 3.-5 gfs and 10+ nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Waiting on 12z but prelim thinking is 2-5" around dyl for this one. Nam likely overdone. Even though its a large system it keeps zipping along which should keep totals in this range. May need to tweak totals later but feel confident for now with that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 6z gfs bounced back from 00z dip. Supports 3-5 in area with good ratios. More to the N+E of Trenton. Nice changes but still nowhere near the nam. Hopefully by 12z we can get a compromise with the models in between the 3.-5 gfs and 10+ nam. I would guess that there is a good chance that the nam backs off. It went crazy, but with ratios it might be on to something. A general 3-5 seems to be supported, possibly 4-8 with ratios. The 4-6 forecast from yesterday is looking more like a winning medium range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 12z NAM coming in slightly more amped then 6z. I just want it to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Current Wxsim with latest 6z run has what appears to be a healthy snow event for NW Chesco (potentially our largest since October 2011). Water equivalent is up to 0.55" here is the breakdown.A mix of precip during the PM transitioning to heavy snow during the evening a tapering off during toward dawn on Friday. Total snow accumulation between 5" to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry all, I just wanted to get some Euro info proir to going to bed. I was not fair for me to critizcize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry all, I just wanted to get some Euro info proir to going to bed. I was not fair for me to critizcize... The fact no one was talking about it should've been a clue that it wasn't that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 how about the NAM at 24...it has the weaker low just off the coast, but much closer to land. could be another snow-bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 new NAM is colder, more energy southward, and could be snowier for SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Since ratios will play a factor in this upcoming storm, perhaps someone could explain something to me: Cold air is generally drier air, right? So, at what point does the colder air become too dry, and limit the amount of moisture in the atmosphere? Or is this just simply a case where there is ample moisture to override the dry air? Is there a scenario in this current set up where the air will be too dry, thus limiting snowfall amounts? Thanks, just trying to understand things that are probably over my hear! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Easton, crystal growth can be complicating at times...since different layers of the atmosphere factor in. Just because the surface is very cold, doesn't take into effect what's going on above 5,000 feet. (which could vary wildly from storm to storm) A Met here could probably elaborate more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Easton, crystal growth can be complicating at times...since different layers of the atmosphere factor in. Just because the surface is very cold, doesn't take into effect what's going on above 5,000 feet. (which could vary wildly from storm to storm) A Met here could probably elaborate more. Can be *very* complicating at times, but if you're someone who just wants to go off of the pre-canned 'snow-maps' then rather than add to the totals, I'd consider actually taking them closer to verbatim for 10:1 if you're in a fringe area. Most everyone has concluded it won't be 10:1 ratios, but take into account that the 'lighter' snowfall while it will accumulate slightly, is easily absorbed and almost counts for nothing. That being said, I'm buying into the NAM @ H5 - I'd just be very cautious of the fringe areas in SC-PA and Maryland. Large bust potential one way or the other, and a bulk of the precip is 'lighter' and may/may not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Easton, crystal growth can be complicating at times...since different layers of the atmosphere factor in. Just because the surface is very cold, doesn't take into effect what's going on above 5,000 feet. (which could vary wildly from storm to storm) A Met here could probably elaborate more. Thanks, yea the whole upper level physics thing is really tough for me the grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 as expected, NAM = big hit for SNJ. (6+ inches of snow) drier northern and central. the see-saw continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM is probably as good as it gets for philly metro + S jersey. Widespread 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Since ratios will play a factor in this upcoming storm, perhaps someone could explain something to me: Cold air is generally drier air, right? So, at what point does the colder air become too dry, and limit the amount of moisture in the atmosphere? Or is this just simply a case where there is ample moisture to override the dry air? Is there a scenario in this current set up where the air will be too dry, thus limiting snowfall amounts? Thanks, just trying to understand things that are probably over my hear! lol Just wanted to add that if the NAM were to play out verbatim from the 'top down' so-to-speak, I wouldn't expect there to be too many issues getting the atmosphere wet enough for snow. You may need a quick burst of heavier precip to turn the faucet on, but I'm not overly concerned about it. Again, save for the lighter precip that may/may not actually exist - IE .05 one hour, .05 the next and someone saying: "That makes .1, which at 15:1 ratios is 1.5" extra!" -- I'd be cautious about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ratios are extremely complex. Areas that get good lift in the snow growth zone (-12 to -18C) can see 20:1 ratios, assuming there isn't a warmer layer (-2 to -5C) below that where the snowflakes will rime (which reduces ratios). Even if its cold, if you have wind (which reduces ratios by breaking up the flakes) and poor lift in the snow growth zone, you can still get lame ratios. For example, under the core of the CCB during Boxing Day, ratios were 16:1 or more. But, northwest of there, ratios dropped off precipitously, due to much poorer lift and wind breaking up the flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My first call was 4"-8" here, but might bump to 6"-8" after this suite. 12z NAM showed around 10" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just wanted to add that if the NAM were to play out verbatim from the 'top down' so-to-speak, I wouldn't expect there to be too many issues getting the atmosphere wet enough for snow. You may need a quick burst of heavier precip to turn the faucet on, but I'm not overly concerned about it. Again, save for the lighter precip that may/may not actually exist - IE .05 one hour, .05 the next and someone saying: "That makes .1, which at 15:1 ratios is 1.5" extra!" -- I'd be cautious about that. Ratios are extremely complex. Areas that get good lift in the snow growth zone (-12 to -18C) can see 20:1 ratios, assuming there isn't a warmer layer (-2 to -5C) below that where the snowflakes will rime (which reduces ratios). Even if its cold, if you have wind (which reduces ratios by breaking up the flakes) and poor lift in the snow growth zone, you can still get lame ratios. For example, under the core of the CCB during Boxing Day, ratios were 16:1 or more. But, northwest of there, ratios dropped off precipitously, due to much poorer lift and wind breaking up the flakes. Thanks guys. Wow, very complex indeed. Another facet of forecasting that has many components that are not easy to predict! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ratios are extremely complex. Areas that get good lift in the snow growth zone (-12 to -18C) can see 20:1 ratios, assuming there isn't a warmer layer (-2 to -5C) below that where the snowflakes will rime (which reduces ratios). Even if its cold, if you have wind (which reduces ratios by breaking up the flakes) and poor lift in the snow growth zone, you can still get lame ratios. For example, under the core of the CCB during Boxing Day, ratios were 16:1 or more. But, northwest of there, ratios dropped off precipitously, due to much poorer lift and wind breaking up the flakes. Ray, if all else was equal (including qpf rates and temperatures), except for the wind, and with say 20-30 mph winds reducing the ratio vs. light winds, would visibility be affected or would it be the same? (Not talking about snow blowing across the ground). Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 My first call was 4"-8" here, but might bump to 6"-8" after this suite. 12z NAM showed around 10" here. I don't think I'd disagree, particularly if the upper levels translate like they should. I think the thing that's going to throw most people attempting to map this (as if there is only one thing to throw you) is that this is not an 'east to west' snow gradient, nor is it a true 'north/south' - after the 12z kickers, I'd start comparing progged reflection to reality and looking at the shorter range models for localized verification to compare to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM is very, very NAM-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I don't think I'd disagree, particularly if the upper levels translate like they should. I think the thing that's going to throw most people attempting to map this (as if there is only one thing to throw you) is that this is not an 'east to west' snow gradient, nor is it a true 'north/south' - after the 12z kickers, I'd start comparing progged reflection to reality and looking at the shorter range models for localized verification to compare to the NAM. I personally thought it was going to show a SECS by hour 18 at H5. It looked even better then 6z. Might be true, but also might be feedback. H7 was nearly perfect with the GOM connection with more energy at H5. I personally would not use the EURO/GFS after 12z, and would rather use the SR and NAM/RGEM models. Interesting storm for sure. Thought all along, it would have surprises. Thoughts on ratios? 12:1 or 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 RGEM is very, very NAM-ish What does it show? Not on WxBell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 All the short range models coming in with good hits this AM - SREF, NAM, RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ray, if all else was equal (including qpf rates and temperatures), except for the wind, and with say 20-30 mph winds reducing the ratio vs. light winds, would visibility be affected or would it be the same? (Not talking about snow blowing across the ground). Thanks! I think the greater wind would result in lower visibility overall. You would have the same *amount* of matter in the air, but distributed in finer bits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the greater wind would result in lower visibility overall. You would have the same *amount* of matter in the air, but distributed in finer bits. Second this. Any flizzard can be crazy when you're doing 30mph down the road. The principle isn't any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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