chubbs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Barker's snowmap must also account for ratios. 6z gfs map 6-8 for NE half of NJ and 3-6 elsewhere. http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Thanks Mitch! How do the plumes compare to earlier ones? BYW, how many hours before onset of a storm you typically start to think about banding placement (assuming the potential)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 500 vort already digging deeper at 39 hour NAM...could be another sweet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 500 vort already digging deeper at 39 hour NAM...could be another sweet run. Agreed. Thus far this shows all the signs of amplifying system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ughh, stuck in the donut hole for most of the event. (not the best of runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It doesn't pay to get worked up about 48+ hr NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It doesn't pay to get worked up about 48+ hr NAM runs. The 60 hr NAM runs have been dead on so far this season for our area, I'd argue the most accurate out of any of the models at any time. The next two runs are the ones to watch. I know it hasn't been the norm, but this year alone, it has done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I would expect at least one ramped up NAM (cut QPF in half) and expect the GFS to be a swing and a miss with more of an OTS look....before they all get back to reality with tonight's 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 No major changes on 12z gfs - 2-5 or 3-6 is a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Would appear we are converging solutions to a 2-4" area wide event. Hope the ECM holds pat because most other models outside GFS would bring only a light car topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ECM around .2"-.3" liquid so yeah a heavy car topper in SEPA For a potential 4"+ moderate event GFS is alone in the wilderness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm gonna go 2-5 inches for Trenton. 2 inches if QPF underperforms (as if that's ever happened), 5 inches if ratios really come into play. May tighten that a bit tomorrow, but really, the EC and GFS are in reasonable agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm gonna go 2-5 inches for Trenton. 2 inches if QPF underperforms (as if that's ever happened), 5 inches if ratios really come into play. May tighten that a bit tomorrow, but really, the EC and GFS are in reasonable agreement... No really? Yeah they are pretty close within .10" and not like that won't change in the next two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Many said this would be a year where we got nickled and dimed. Looks like this is shaping up to be another one of those events. As long as my grass is covered, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Latest Wxsim run with 12z data from the GFS and NAM has 0.32" of liquid so somewhere between 3"-5" snow as temps will be falling pretty quickly during heaviest precip. I also still expect to see this trend a little wetter as we move toward tonight's 0z runs. Have not had a storm here in Chesco exceed 4.5" since October 30, 2011 storm that gave us 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 There is going to be a ton of precip just off the coast. Shame that there isn't some blocking in the Atlantic to wrap it up some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Many said this would be a year where we got nickled and dimed. Looks like this is shaping up to be another one of those events. As long as my grass is covered, I'm happy. That was last year down this way at least. This winter has had some larger change in there, and some surprises, so far. We'll see if that continues. So far for this event it seems we are settling into a baseline of 2" with potential for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is about the time I stick with NAM (only this run and the next, or perhaps this run and the previous run depending on the timing of the storm). What is it saying for PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This is about the time I stick with NAM (only this run and the next). What is it saying for PHL? Well the 12Z had 1-2", the 18Z has 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 That nam is ugly for central Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well the 12Z had 1-2", the 18Z has 3-5".I'll be happy with even 2 inches, but 3 or more is a big bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mt holly upped it a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well the 12Z had 1-2", the 18Z has 3-5". Either the next run or run after it will surely overcompensate and be useless for the next bunch of runs. So for now, 3-5" is what I'm sticking with! If the next one comes in slightly more, I'll up the 3-5" to 4-6". If it comes in way amped, I'm going to stick with 3-5". It might be nothing, but my theory with the NAM has been pretty useful this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All of our office snow graphics and my lengthy thoughts are listed in the AFD for both this event and Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looking at the daily records at KPHL going back to 1940, the most daily snowfall for Jan. 2 is 0.8", for Jan. 3 it's 1.5". Breaking both of those would be a nice starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 4-6" would be great . will help the cold feel better with more white on top of current coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 18z nam is definitely more juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 All of our office snow graphics and my lengthy thoughts are listed in the AFD for both this event and Sunday-Monday. Mitchell, I noticed both the AFD and HWO mention a 2-4" snowfall for the Lehigh Valley, yet the Mt. Holly storm total snowfall forecast graphic shows 4-6" and I was wondering why the difference. Not quibbling, was just curious. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Mitchell, I noticed both the AFD and HWO mention a 2-4" snowfall for the Lehigh Valley, yet the Mt. Holly storm total snowfall forecast graphic shows 4-6" and I was wondering why the difference. Not quibbling, was just curious. Thanks. You're right at 4. Could go either way. I could see the Lehigh valley split between the two groups based on location. Our graphics don't have a 3-5. Though I could have done that in the AFD etc. You're were grouped in with areas further south on the HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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