KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 QPF is the same but I remember reading a post back in the easternuswx days about how the wind breaks down the flakes some lessening the accumulation...I'm hoping for a few moments of bliss. Paul posted a dream map in the vendor forum from eastern pa wx you might want to look at....bettin you've already did. It's more dense on the ground, so a little less to measure, but pretty awesome coming down. Yes, I saw the dream map, I hope it verifies, but I really try not to get too carried away this far out. People talk about how 2009-2010 was easy to sort out days in advance, and I remember being impressed how a major event could be so well forecast that far in advance (and more than once that winter). This is a more complex scenario, so while I am for sure excited about the possibility, I'm a little cautious yet, but enjoying the process. Especially today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Agreed JSchwake28 ^ Slower at 63 compared to 18z. Haven't seen a block like this in awhile. Highs to the West, North, and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Agreed JSchwake28 ^ Slower at 63 compared to 18z. Slower is better. More phasing. Looks like 3-6" for the area this run. Huge step towards the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's more dense on the ground, so a little less to measure, but pretty awesome coming down. Yes, I saw the dream map, I hope it verifies, but I really try not to get too carried away this far out. People talk about how 2009-2010 was easy to sort out days in advance, and I remember being impressed how a major event could be so well forecast that far in advance (and more than once that winter). This is a more complex scenario, so while I am for sure excited about the possibility, I'm a little cautious yet, but enjoying the process. Especially today Boxing Day wasn't ironed out til 36 hours out. Lets never forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Boxing Day wasn't ironed out til 36 hours out. Lets never forget that. Please don't mention Boxing Day - very depressing storm for us Delawareans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray, if there is a miracle alignment of accumulating snow for all of the 0Z globals (prayers said), will you Google air fares back to NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray, if there is a miracle alignment of accumulating snow for all of the 0Z globals (prayers said), will you Google air fares back to NJ? I'm leaning towards no. I did buy an expensive web cam, so I should put it to good use, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray whats your threshold on potential accumulation to travel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ray whats your threshold on potential accumulation to travel? I'm not sure what it is now. A lot. More than it used to be, since I can watch from a far now. And I hate flying more than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm leaning towards no. I did buy an expensive web cam, so I should put it to good use, right? Clever (and inexpensive) idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z GFS does nothing to inspire confidence. It's about as bad as it's least snowy ensemble at 18z. Still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z GFS does nothing to inspire confidence. It's about as bad as it's least snowy ensemble at 18z. Still plenty of time The only model that showed a big ticket storm was the euro correct? I agree about the GFS. It does look as if we should get a few inches of snow though by Friday A complete shut out would be tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The only model that showed a big ticket storm was the euro correct? I agree about the GFS. It does look as if we should get a few inches of snow though by Friday A complete shut out would be tragic last ukie run and of course the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now... Storm: NAM No storm: GFS GGEM UKMET Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 I have a feeling I know where Doctor No is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now... Storm: NAM No storm: GFS GGEM UKMET Ouch. GFS is drier than the NAM but you still get at least 3 inches at AVP. Its not like it has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So now... Storm: NAM No storm: GFS GGEM UKMET Ouch. How bad is the UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 GFS is drier than the NAM but you still get at least 3 inches at AVP. Its not like it has nothing. Same with NAM i would have no problem with that in early january and the coming cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z models all have this "convective feedback" feature...I put that in quotes because that's probably not what it is. Why is the low so strung out and east, despite improvements at 500 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How bad is the UK? Out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Beautiful west based -nao...we should be able to get that feature to work for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z models all have this "convective feedback" feature...I put that in quotes because that's probably not what it is. Why is the low so strung out and east, despite improvements at 500 mb? Hope there's an answer for this before the 0z ECM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0z models all have this "convective feedback" feature...I put that in quotes because that's probably not what it is. Why is the low so strung out and east, despite improvements at 500 mb? I'm not the best at diagnosing this stuff, but it seems to me that there isn't a properly positioned baroclinic zone near the surface for the upper level dynamics to act on. That's my best guess as to why this system doesn't seem to organize properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Boxing Day wasn't ironed out til 36 hours out. Lets never forget that. Please don't mention Boxing Day - very depressing storm for us Delawareans. really? I seem to recall about a half foot of snow from that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's a real shame that the euro is like the DGEX these days in the 96-120hr time frame.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ECM snowhype maps still indicate 3-4" for SEPA so that is something * edit that 2-3" with a hilarious low snow hole covering SEPA vs all states surrounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 really? I seem to recall about a half foot of snow from that storm... Just flurries in Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z models are even less amplified with the trof. Kicker really does a donnie jones and boots the system out in a hurry! Now doesn't even look as cold for kickoff saturday night either. Silly models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z gfs is similar to euro 2-5" for most. More in NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Just figured out the SREF plumes DO account for ratios. Here are 03Z SREF totals I edited out some members I thought weren't right. PHL 3.5, ABE 5, AVP 8.8, TTN 4, ACY 2.4, GED 1.9, EWR 5.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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