RobbTC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 From NJ OEM:Today, we received a message from NWS Mt. Holly regarding a snow event expected to take place Thursday into Friday. The forecast will start to evolve more tomorrow. Please note NWS concerns regarding the wind chills on Friday and into Saturday; they will quite extreme."A storm system will be affecting the mid-Atlantic region Thursday into Friday. Based on current model guidance, precipitation will begin Thursday morning, then continue into Friday afternoon. Precipitation should start out as snow just about everywhere, but then change over to rain, or a rain-snow mixture, south and east of the I-95 corridor. The highest precipitation amounts are likely to occur south and east of the I-95 corridor as well. North and west of the I-95 corridor, all snow is currently expected, but precipitation values will be less.Based on current model guidance, snow totals everywhere will likely be in the advisory category or less. As a reminder, advisory category snow amounts are 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Philadelphia metro area and areas south and east; 3 to 6 inches north and west of the Philadelphia metro area.Even more important than possible snow will be the extreme cold and gusty winds behind this system late Thursday night through Saturday. High temperatures on Friday will struggle to get out of the teens south and out of the single digits north. Low temperatures Friday night / Saturday morning will sink to the zero to 10 degree range south and zero to minus 10 degree range north. Gusty northwest winds could create wind chill factors in the minus 20 to minus 30 degree range. This kind of extreme cold hasn’t been seen around here for years. Humans and animals exposed to these extreme temperatures for any length of time will be in grave danger. Frozen pipes in unprotected areas, and concrete and asphalt pavement cracking can also be expected.While there is a lot of uncertainty with the snow forecast in this prognosis, the cold temperatures and gusty winds are more certain. The purpose of this writeup is to urge emergency managers and decision makers to keep abreast of the latest forecasts to make informed decisions. Please utilize our website for this purpose: www.weather.gov/phiA formal briefing package with the latest available information will be issued on Tuesday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As of right now, I believe this is how we stand? Storm: GFS(+ENS) ECM(+ENS) UKMET No storm: NAM GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As of right now, I believe this is how we stand? Storm: GFS(+ENS) ECM(+ENS) UKMET No storm: NAM GGEM NAM doesn't count, so its really just the GGEM. Right now I'm banking on SOMETHING happening Thursday into Friday. Just not sure exactly what. So I guess you'd say that I've taken the "no storm" option off the table. I'm enough of a road geek still such that I immediately thought of "no build option" when I wrote "no storm option" above. ("no build option" is road planner speak ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 As of right now, I believe this is how we stand? Storm: GFS(+ENS) ECM(+ENS) UKMET No storm: NAM GGEM Add JMA to the storm group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Add JMA to the storm group. It's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Add JMA to the storm group. It's a lock. Everyone knows it's not a lock until the Korean is on board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Everyone knows it's not a lock until the Korean is on board! When I see the 923Z Azerbaijanii come in with the storm, then I know its gonna happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 NAM doesn't count, so its really just the GGEM. Right now I'm banking on SOMETHING happening Thursday into Friday. Just not sure exactly what. So I guess you'd say that I've taken the "no storm" option off the table. I'm enough of a road geek still such that I immediately thought of "no build option" when I wrote "no storm option" above. ("no build option" is road planner speak ) Mt Holly NWS discussed the NAM in detail in their forecast discussion I was a little taken back by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Everyone knows it's not a lock until the Korean is on board! Brazilian too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Brazilian too I thought the Brazilian was just a hair off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdog127 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I thought the Brazilian was just a hair off. We need a "like" button Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 It's a lock. We can laugh, but the JMA has been pretty solid this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'll be waiting to see what the NAM says tomorrow evening. That seems to be the sweet spot for our area this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 18z NAM is in the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 We can laugh, but the JMA has been pretty solid this winter. You would think that the same country that produces lots of our electronics would be able to produce a decent computer model, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this storm hits...The snow will be here forever. Timing is everything as the two streams phase. I have followed many storms with this community over the last 7 years. But no set up like this...storm with brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Are we gonna see any intense winds with this event? I was looking at DT's FB page and he has a graphic showing potentially 60mph winds up in New England and possibly reaching down in SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2013 Author Share Posted December 30, 2013 If this storm hits...The snow will be here forever.Timing is everything as the two streams phase.I have followed many storms with this community over the last 7 years. But no set up like this...storm with brutal cold. The bitter cold is actually transient and it moderates just before the next blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The bitter cold is actually transient and it moderates just before the next blast. Rainshadow basically said this would happen with the negative EPO and flat NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There are some big and I mean BIG hits on the individual 18z members. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What are you talking about Wiggum. Historic cold is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 There are some big and I mean BIG hits on the individual 18z members. Holy crap. So how much were the 18z members showing for SE PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What are you talking about Wiggum. Historic cold is coming in. There is a moderation between hits though, just look at the NWS forecasts. Take Allentown's for example... Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 away from computer most of the day and just looked at the runs, looks like it was a fun day for model runs. big runs pending in next 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Are we gonna see any intense winds with this event? I was looking at DT's FB page and he has a graphic showing potentially 60mph winds up in New England and possibly reaching down in SEPA. Not sure if your name indicates that you'd like to see intense winds, I wouldn't mind some wind, 20-30 mph or more while it's snowing. I enjoy snow going sideways, with a bit of drifting. From what I've seen so far it's windier later Thursday night and Friday. So much of this is speculative, still, at this point, especially the details. I know you know that, I'm sure we'll have a better idea by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You would think that the same country that produces lots of our electronics would be able to produce a decent computer model, after all. Actually, the JMA is fairly decent. When the Nam misses, or GFS on a regular basis, we take issue with the model, and the initialization, and the "bad" physics and biases of the Nam versus GFS. I've always disliked model hugging, no matter the branding. If you choose ANY storm, the wild sine curve like oscilloscope of storm, no storm, model run to model run, is worthless. I actually like JB's teleconnections and analog years. He is a snow lover at heart, so I'm biased towards his methodologies. As my wife is Japanese, her father holding a high position in Government, means I spend a lot of time in Japan. I've come to respect the technological expertise and precision they bring to everything, especially their electronics, but it is their culture. They remind me of the Germans, whose cars exemplify technical superiority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Not sure if your name indicates that you'd like to see intense winds, I wouldn't mind some wind, 20-30 mph or more while it's snowing. I enjoy snow going sideways, with a bit of drifting. From what I've seen so far it's windier later Thursday night and Friday. So much of this is speculative, still, at this point, especially the details. I know you know that, I'm sure we'll have a better idea by Wednesday. You are correct with the assumption, I love storms winter or summer ones. Not sure if you check out dt'S FB page there is a graphic showing the area could see some intense winds... I'd definitely would sacrifice some accumulation for higher winds. You're right about it being early, 24 to 48 hours in we'll know for sure. I'll be charging up the camcorder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 You are correct with the assumption, I love storms winter or summer ones. Not sure if you check out dt'S FB page there is a graphic showing the area could see some intense winds... I'd definitely would sacrifice some accumulation for higher winds. You're right about it being early, 24 to 48 hours in we'll know for sure. I'll be charging up the camcorder. Yes, I am fine with sacrificing accumulation for wind, as long as the qpf is the same. I also check DT's FB page, lol, he's been yoyo'd by the models the last few days (so have I and plenty others but not as publicly. He'll be okay I am sure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 QPF is the same but I remember reading a post back in the easternuswx days about how the wind breaks down the flakes some lessening the accumulation...I'm hoping for a few moments of bliss. Paul posted a dream map in the vendor forum from eastern pa wx you might want to look at....bettin you've already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 0Z nam diving the northern branch energy further south. Should be a better end result. Granted the storm is pretty far out with regards to looking at the nam but it's a trend in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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