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January 2-3 Winter Storm Potential


Ralph Wiggum

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Just saying, it's going to be close.

on 12z GFS, the low just needs to be 100 miles more east for it to be a snow/ wintry mix over most of the area. And models usually underestimate brutally cold air-masses...so it's very much possible.

Lets see what 18z throws at us.

I'm definitely on your side...I haven't looked past the event yet...thanks for the heads up.

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tell us more

 

 

Deformation banding? Comma tail? Not sure he knows what a Norlun is?

 

Yes, I know what a Norlun trough is. If this is a physics lesson, divergent air masses from different directions causing barometric instability at the surface, with resultant lift, and voila, some lucky people get the benefit of localized heavy precipitation where this occurs.

 

And.....I doubt you had the patience of reading a very good contributor here, who noted her local Chester precipitation was forecast to go into a lull, and then snow moderately again. "Lull", her word, not mine. But the best banding at the end of the storm has been modeled at the mesoscale level to be over the Jersey shore. Some may make it into Philly, my hope. But people in S. Jersey have been out of the jackpot for long enough, they deserve the best of the storm.

 

You know, I lived in NYC for 14 years, tough for a Philadelphian who was born and bred all Philly. But, I enjoyed the diversity, and came to these forums while living in NYC. I always felt the Philly crowd had more control over the vitriol and sarcasm that runs over that forum at times. Glad to see it can be found here, too. I don't do "mocking" or "sarcasm". If I did, I'd certainly call out the grammar police on a lazy three word, purported sentence, that had neither Capitalization, or a period.

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tell us more

 

 

Deformation banding? Comma tail? Not sure he knows what a Norlun is?

 

Yes, I know what a Norlun trough is. If this is a physics lesson, divergent air masses from different directions causing barometric instability at the surface, with resultant lift, and voila, some lucky people get the benefit of localized heavy precipitation where this occurs.

 

And.....I doubt you had the patience of reading a very good contributor here, who noted her local Chester precipitation was forecast to go into a lull, and then snow moderately again. "Lull", her word, not mine. But the best banding at the end of the storm has been modeled at the mesoscale level to be over the Jersey shore. Some may make it into Philly, my hope. But people in S. Jersey have been out of the jackpot for long enough, they deserve the best of the storm.

 

You know, I lived in NYC for 14 years, tough for a Philadelphian who was born and bred all Philly. But, I enjoyed the diversity, and came to these forums while living in NYC. I always felt the Philly crowd had more control over the vitriol and sarcasm that runs over that forum at times. Glad to see it can be found here, too. I don't do "mocking" or "sarcasm". If I did, I'd certainly call out the grammar police on a lazy three word, purported sentence, that had neither Capitalization, or a period.

I enjoy your posts! Given the lull in participation you have proven to be a welcomed contributor. Physicist if I recall or an engineer, if I recall.

Look forward to see how this all sets up.

Cheers

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This is having hallmark indications that SNJ will win out the most with this storm.  (6" to 12" inches)

 

* Inverted trough / mesoscale banding expected to setup there.

 

* Temps already below expectations.

 

* We're relying on backend precip mostly

 

* Strong , dry highs to the north might dry-slot most of NNJ....causing weenie chaos in the NYC section.

 

* NAM has already been hinting (prior to 12z run) at lower amounts up north...due to colder and dryer temps...and coming from a model that typically overdoes things. (QPF)

 

 

not the type that typically quotes myself, but did I call it this morning.... or what. 

 

extreme north-east NJ = completely gettin shafted so far.  not even an inch yet. 

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