ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z NAM has increased snow amounts again for NW Chesco 0.60" of liquid by 8am tomorrow morning. Also of interest as mentioned above is the trend toward Sunday becoming more ice and even snow at the end. Temps barely get above freezing during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Just saying, it's going to be close. on 12z GFS, the low just needs to be 100 miles more east for it to be a snow/ wintry mix over most of the area. And models usually underestimate brutally cold air-masses...so it's very much possible. Lets see what 18z throws at us. I'm definitely on your side...I haven't looked past the event yet...thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 tell us more Deformation banding? Comma tail? Not sure he knows what a Norlun is? Yes, I know what a Norlun trough is. If this is a physics lesson, divergent air masses from different directions causing barometric instability at the surface, with resultant lift, and voila, some lucky people get the benefit of localized heavy precipitation where this occurs. And.....I doubt you had the patience of reading a very good contributor here, who noted her local Chester precipitation was forecast to go into a lull, and then snow moderately again. "Lull", her word, not mine. But the best banding at the end of the storm has been modeled at the mesoscale level to be over the Jersey shore. Some may make it into Philly, my hope. But people in S. Jersey have been out of the jackpot for long enough, they deserve the best of the storm. You know, I lived in NYC for 14 years, tough for a Philadelphian who was born and bred all Philly. But, I enjoyed the diversity, and came to these forums while living in NYC. I always felt the Philly crowd had more control over the vitriol and sarcasm that runs over that forum at times. Glad to see it can be found here, too. I don't do "mocking" or "sarcasm". If I did, I'd certainly call out the grammar police on a lazy three word, purported sentence, that had neither Capitalization, or a period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 tell us more Deformation banding? Comma tail? Not sure he knows what a Norlun is? Yes, I know what a Norlun trough is. If this is a physics lesson, divergent air masses from different directions causing barometric instability at the surface, with resultant lift, and voila, some lucky people get the benefit of localized heavy precipitation where this occurs. And.....I doubt you had the patience of reading a very good contributor here, who noted her local Chester precipitation was forecast to go into a lull, and then snow moderately again. "Lull", her word, not mine. But the best banding at the end of the storm has been modeled at the mesoscale level to be over the Jersey shore. Some may make it into Philly, my hope. But people in S. Jersey have been out of the jackpot for long enough, they deserve the best of the storm. You know, I lived in NYC for 14 years, tough for a Philadelphian who was born and bred all Philly. But, I enjoyed the diversity, and came to these forums while living in NYC. I always felt the Philly crowd had more control over the vitriol and sarcasm that runs over that forum at times. Glad to see it can be found here, too. I don't do "mocking" or "sarcasm". If I did, I'd certainly call out the grammar police on a lazy three word, purported sentence, that had neither Capitalization, or a period. I enjoy your posts! Given the lull in participation you have proven to be a welcomed contributor. Physicist if I recall or an engineer, if I recall. Look forward to see how this all sets up. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 wish there were a banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Oh go easy. Sometimes it is what it is, and brief. This one is winding down anyways......it's clearly obs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This is having hallmark indications that SNJ will win out the most with this storm. (6" to 12" inches) * Inverted trough / mesoscale banding expected to setup there. * Temps already below expectations. * We're relying on backend precip mostly * Strong , dry highs to the north might dry-slot most of NNJ....causing weenie chaos in the NYC section. * NAM has already been hinting (prior to 12z run) at lower amounts up north...due to colder and dryer temps...and coming from a model that typically overdoes things. (QPF) not the type that typically quotes myself, but did I call it this morning.... or what. extreme north-east NJ = completely gettin shafted so far. not even an inch yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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