famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 they must of fixed the QPF bombs the NAM usually throws out The last 2 or 3 straight storms, GFS QPF has been very close or even higher than NAM. Probably would be good to think about how often the higher GFS numbers work out in those cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Little off topic but I can remember when a storm like this would bring hundreds to the site but now it's always quiet here. If you're referring to this sub-forum specifically (if you want action head to the NYC subforum), its because half split off to http://www.phillywx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lets not forget DE! GFS 12z Run - Total precip. Check out the dark blue, now covering most of Philly and all of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know there is a lot of ground clutter but I think you can begin to see inverted trough setting up on this radar. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&mc=anim&radar=Middlesex%20County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If you're referring to this sub-forum specifically (if you want action head to the NYC subforum), its because half split off to http://www.phillywx.com you slipped that in there brilliantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lets not forget DE! GFS 12z Run - Total precip. Check out the dark blue, now covering most of Philly and all of NJ. looking pretty descent for us, more you guys upstate, but maybe I can pull off 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If model QPF consensous verifies with excellent ratios most of SEPA should see a solid 6-8" snowfall good luck everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I need to emphasize... ratios will not get *good* til late. After a majority of precip has fallen. Especially from I-95 on south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its going to be a fun morning commuting at 5AM. The joys of being a security guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray...to borrow a phrase from the financial world would you say NWS and most media forecasts have already "priced in" any high ratio bonus in terms of final accumulations? Thanks for your insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray...to borrow a phrase from the financial world would you say NWS and most media forecasts have already "priced in" any high ratio bonus in terms of final accumulations? Thanks for your insight Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I need to emphasize... ratios will not get *good* til late. After a majority of precip has fallen. Especially from I-95 on south and east. Are you thinking more 10:1 and general 5" amounts Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ray...to borrow a phrase from the financial world would you say NWS and most media forecasts have already "priced in" any high ratio bonus in terms of final accumulations? Thanks for your insight It's starting to get ridiculous. years ago, even storms predicted to get over a foot never caused this much panic. "OMG...MILK AND BREAD....MILK AND BREAD." (....and maybe eggs too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Mike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really hoping we can avoid waiting hours for the change over down here...thinking this cold air will help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hires focuses inverted trough for Burlington and Ocean counties overnight. I don't think I've ever seen one develop in the spot where modeled. Would be nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 12z data has slightly increased QPF for NW Chester County - it has snow arriving later this afternoon and getting moderate by 7pm and then heavy by 10pm some lighter snow late night and then another period of Moderate snow during the 2 to 4am timeframe. Total accumulations now between 7.5" to 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hrrr suggesting lt snow develops in se pa by 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Hey Ray thinking about raising snow totals? Earl Barker's snow maps for the 12z gfs run shows TTN solidly within the 8-10 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Interesting to note that the NWS map has decreased totals for NW Chesco to 4 to 6" while Wxsim has increased totals - I will defer to the professionals at Mt Holly! Should be interesting to see how this plays out later Latest Wxsim with 12z data has slightly increased QPF for NW Chester County - it has snow arriving later this afternoon and getting moderate by 7pm and then heavy by 10pm some lighter snow late night and then another period of Moderate snow during the 2 to 4am timeframe. Total accumulations now between 7.5" to 9.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Interesting to note that the NWS map has decreased totals for NW Chesco to 4 to 6" while Wxsim has increased totals - I will defer to the professionals at Mt Holly! Should be interesting to see how this plays out later I know I definitely fear the chance of a dryslot. Maybe they took that into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks good so far. Primary low relatively strong and tracking across S Va. 950 zero line down to central De. Radar echoes expanding in VA up through central Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I wonder, on a % percentage basis, what accuracy modeling has had from 120 hours out, to 24. Someone had to do a study. As I detest model hugging, the manic up and down sine curve swings, storm/no storm, the panic it causes in those who live and die by these poor initialization biased tools, I would like everyone to think about the first question. That said, I love the mesoscale options, but it almost seems playing darts with a blindfold, is as accurate as modeling gets. In the interim, when they get the "bias" and the need to "blend" out of modeling, how about surface maps and soundings to get to the how much will be IMBY. It is at least as accurate as nowcasting. BTW, Philly Metro was supposed to hit 38 degrees today. It never went above freezing, and is now at 30.1 degrees, heavy overcast. I mention that to DC Mike as cold air is on the way. I noticed he already had light winds out of the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think coastal NJ will jackpot believe it or not, they get into the real heavy stuff, especially as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 New warnings out from Mt. Holly for counties previously only under WWA: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ159 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014...A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOWTONIGHT INTO TOMORROW....LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRENGTHENRAPIDLY TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA FRIDAYMORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIREAREA TONIGHT THEN TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR MIDDAY FRIDAY.A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT ANDFRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.DEZ002-MDZ008-012-015-020-NJZ023-024-030500-/O.UPG.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z//O.EXA.KPHI.WS.W.0001.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-CAROLINE-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...DENTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY159 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PMEST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORYIS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN TIP OF NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVAAREA EXCLUDING TALBOT COUNTY MARYLAND AND SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIXLATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THEBULK OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS SNOW BEGINSTO ACCUMULATE AND TEMPERATURES PLUNGE INTO THE 20S. THE SNOWLATE AT NIGHT WILL BE FLUFFY AND AS WINDS INCREASE...BLOWINGAND DRIFTING SNOW MAY ADD TO THE WINTER TRAVEL HAZARDS. CARDOOR LOCKS MAY FREEZE LOCKED IF UNATTENDED OUTDOORS TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR 15 WITH WIND CHILLJUST BELOW ZERO.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES IN SNOWLATER TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 6abc upped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Additionally, Mt. Holly modified the prior warning to call for 4-8" of snow now, vs. 4-6"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think coastal NJ will jackpot believe it or not, they get into the real heavy stuff, especially as the low pulls away. You might be right. Every single piece of guidance has that enhancement for E-C NJ. The wind may take its toll on the ratio-aspect but they will make up for that in banding. Most guidance has the NW zones exceeding 20:1 ratios tomorrow morning. Got to watch those pivoting bands. The fluff will add up quickly, pending winds which can offset delicate dendrite growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Temps already dropping here on the shore with north winds. Starting to think we may start as snow and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I wonder, on a % percentage basis, what accuracy modeling has had from 120 hours out, to 24. Someone had to do a study. As I detest model hugging, the manic up and down sine curve swings, storm/no storm, the panic it causes in those who live and die by these poor initialization biased tools, I would like everyone to think about the first question. That said, I love the mesoscale options, but it almost seems playing darts with a blindfold, is as accurate as modeling gets. In the interim, when they get the "bias" and the need to "blend" out of modeling, how about surface maps and soundings to get to the how much will be IMBY. It is at least as accurate as nowcasting. BTW, Philly Metro was supposed to hit 38 degrees today. It never went above freezing, and is now at 30.1 degrees, heavy overcast. I mention that to DC Mike as cold air is on the way. I noticed he already had light winds out of the North. tell us more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You might be right. Every single piece of guidance has that enhancement for E-C NJ. The wind may take its toll on the ratio-aspect but they will make up for that in banding. Most guidance has the NW zones exceeding 20:1 ratios tomorrow morning. Got to watch those pivoting bands. The fluff will add up quickly, pending winds which can offset delicate dendrite growth. Never knew wind could actually hinder dendrite growth - you always learn something here. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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