RedSky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 A more apt name would be R134a 0z GFS a compromise between 12z and 18z looks like we won't amp this thing up beyond SECS criteria. Feel confident with my 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yup coastal Monmouth and Ocean perhaps back toward mercer and northern Burlington as well. Its been quite a while since Mercer got lucky with snow. I cursed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its been quite a while since Mercer got lucky with snow. I cursed it i actually wonder if mercer is in a bit of a no-mans land... too far north for the storms that miss us to the south, and too far south and west, for the better events in north jersey/NYC/etc. i work in hightstown... and live 14 miles N/NE in e. brunswick.... and i've noted a subtle though noticeable difference between the two over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 So.. I guess WSWs go up with the 3:30 AM package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone think kblm can reach blizzard criteria ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z models are mostly in agreement on a solid 5-10" snowfall for the region...maybe a little more towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0z ECM bumps up QPF .10" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 .47 for Philly. This should be your 2nd, 6" event for you providing ratios work well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 1+ inch is mighty close to the jersey shore, maybe 20 miles? 0z Looks about the same as 12z imby , 0.6-0.8 or so in monmouth/ocean counties, similar to the ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 1+ inch is mighty close to the jersey shore, maybe 20 miles? 0z Looks about the same as 12z imby , 0.6-0.8 or so in monmouth/ocean counties, similar to the ukmet.. Yes, that's pretty close. I like the way the Euro has expanded the precip field overall. Usually it backs down a little before an event. Good to see that reversed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Winter storm warning all nj except cape may....mt holly emphasizing impacts of wind and rapid temp drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 i actually wonder if mercer is in a bit of a no-mans land... too far north for the storms that miss us to the south, and too far south and west, for the better events in north jersey/NYC/etc. You think YOU'RE in no-man's land? Try living out here. Too far north for the southern storms, to far southwest for the NYC and NE storms, and plain too far west if a storm runs a true KU route to the benchmark. Everything has to be JUST PERFECT it seems for my area to potentially jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 You think YOUR in no-man's land? Try living out here. Too far north for the southern storms, to far southwest for the NYC and NE storms, and plain too far west if a storm runs a true KU route to the benchmark. Everything has to be JUST PERFECT it seems for my area to potentially jackpot.It doesn't help that with this forum we know what everyone else is getting. Back before the internet we only got that info from the news which didn't really have the same mental effect I guess. LolAnyway, to keep on topic, HPC probability charts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Like the HPC extension of the 10% probability line of 8" line to cover this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Still like 4-8 for Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 06z gfs snow map with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone think kblm can reach blizzard criteria ? I don't know? But I do know its one of the reasons I drove back from the cabin last night Of course half the crew wants to head back to cabin this afternoon after school, the thought of missing pow pow is eating away as the dream of bombing through the terrain park in a cloud of POW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 45 mph gusts they are saying, that's close to blizzard criteria too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County looks right in line with the NWS maps with a general 6" - 7" of snow for NW Chester County. Timing has steadier snow moving in toward rush hour this evening. Heavy snow by late evening all over by around 8am tomorrow. I kind of have a feeling this may sneak in kind of quick in the West Burbs of Philly and get a little heavier faster especially considering the arctic squeeze play from the North and moisture from the S and W. RAP guidance paints this out also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County looks right in line with the NWS maps with a general 6" - 7" of snow for NW Chester County. Timing has steadier snow moving in toward rush hour this evening. Heavy snow by late evening all over by around 8am tomorrow. I kind of have a feeling this may sneak in kind of quick in the West Burbs of Philly and get a little heavier faster especially considering the arctic squeeze play from the North and moisture from the S and W. RAP guidance paints this out also.I like the trends, we here in Delco look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's a beautiful day out there - good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM = status quo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM = status quo Hires focuses inverted trough for Burlington and Ocean counties overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS 12z Run - Total precip. Check out the dark blue, now covering most of Philly and all of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS 12z Run - Total precip. Check out the dark blue, now covering most of Philly and all of NJ. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'll be in Ray's neck of the woods (Ewing) a little later today, let's hope the heavy stuff holds off for a while. I'd prefer to not reschedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 they must of fixed the QPF bombs the NAM usually throws out The last 2 or 3 straight storms, GFS QPF has been very close or even higher than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Overnight and now 12z guidance seems to have firmed up for at least low end warning criteria for i95 from wilmington to New Brunswick...the sub .5" low outliers are falling away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Little off topic but I can remember when a storm like this would bring hundreds to the site but now it's always quiet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Overnight and now 12z guidance seems to have firmed up for at least low end warning criteria for i95 from wilmington to New Brunswick...the sub .5" low outliers are falling away This is having hallmark indications that SNJ will win out the most with this storm. (6" to 12" inches) * Inverted trough / mesoscale banding expected to setup there. * Temps already below expectations. * We're relying on backend precip mostly * Strong , dry highs to the north might dry-slot most of NNJ....causing weenie chaos in the NYC section. * NAM has already been hinting (prior to 12z run) at lower amounts...due to colder and dryer temps...and coming from a model that typically overdoes things. (QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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