WebBreaker63 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 mt holly AFD THERE IS A SMALL CHC WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW...ITS ONLY A 20 PCT CHANCE IN OUR MINDS Just want to remind myself of the definition of a blizzard :-) A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer: Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than a ¼ mile) Will be interested to see if this may verify - currently calling for occasional gusts to 35mph around TR (and 50mph just off the coast later Thursday night) - if we do get a blizzard warning this would be most likely after midnight and on into Friday when the snow that is falling or has fallen will be light, powdery and blowing all over the place... Also concerned about coastal flooding at the time of high tide on Friday morning along Monmouth and Ocean County beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm forecasting clear skies friday night... looks like someone is gonna be very wrong lol yeah I meant Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deguy50 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 A little warmish but has a nice look to it...se pa gets owned: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ralph, what is that model? And where do you get that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I didn't really like the 18z trends for our area, BUT...I think the jersey shore might quietly jackpot here. My "goal" for NE is 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Ralph, what is that model? And where do you get that map?Its the nms, an eperimental model that is using the 18z nam data as an algorithm. Nice solution right? Shows a hecs up to maine. http://mocha.meteor.wisc.edu/ '> http://mocha.meteor.wisc.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I didn't really like the 18z trends for our area, BUT...I think the jersey shore might quietly jackpot here. My "goal" for NE is 6" (selfish plug) Care to elaborate on your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 (selfish plug) Care to elaborate on your thoughts? Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM total snowfall.. Looks like 4-6" Philly area, not factoring in better ratios..so maybe call it 5-9"? Heaviest snows seem to have shifted a bit NE. NYC looks like they're in for a foot or more. I have no idea what you're speaking about. Sarcasm aside, SNOW is the only four letter word I use. The point was, I was about to make a solid 3-6 forecast, with more potential, which with good lift and forcing, an improving h5, knew that NOAA was playing it safe. They stole my thunder, as I'm a tedious typist, two fingers, lol, and got out the WSW I knew was a certainty, as I checked Upton before posting. My greater point, is the absurd weight placed on modeling, as it's proven it's dart board accuracy, if the guy playing darts is an amateur. It is no "coup", when it nails a storm 6 hours ahead, when the previous 114, it was a sine curve of storm, no storm, and getting the primary wrong, or mishandling the timing of it bombing out, and where. So, lets forward to the BLIZZARD in your username, and thank you Kamu for your gracious remarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hopefully you're talking about snow. It was this remark I was responding to Blizzard, the one posted in the middle of this page. ( I sound like my wife giving directions. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Check out Glenn giving some love to West Caln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looks like a guy on a runway guiding the system in for a landing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Accuweather says 45 mph gusts tomorrow night in the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Kind of weenie-ish by me but there is a lot of moisture in SE Missouri that wasn't predicted by any model that I can see....Not saying it means anything, just interesting to see. It actually looks like the models had this moisture forming farther East than it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Accuweather says 45 mph gusts tomorrow night in the LV My accu forecast says 51 mph gusts in northern DE. Not really sure if that is going to come to fruition or not.. but if so, that would create some pretty ridiculous blowing and drifting and, obviously, terrible visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Accuweather says 45 mph gusts tomorrow night in the LV My accu forecast says 51 mph gusts in northern DE. Not really sure if that is going to come to fruition or not.. but if so, that would create some pretty ridiculous blowing and drifting and, obviously, terrible visibility. Yep and I'll be plowing in it. That's enough to make a PennDOT truck pull over and wait for it to lighten up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yep and I'll be plowing in it. That's enough to make a PennDOT truck pull over and wait for it to lighten up You just keep those roads open so I can deliver the water on Friday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yep and I'll be plowing in it. That's enough to make a PennDOT truck pull over and wait for it to lighten up You just keep those roads open so I can deliver the water on Friday morning... 309 will be okay, but 100 by the low hill township building is a b**ch with blowing and drifting! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 309 will be okay, but 100 by the low hill township building is a b**ch with blowing and drifting! Lol Indeed. The area on 309 by the pizza places south of Bear Rock Junction can get kind of funky as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 309 will be okay, but 100 by the low hill township building is a b**ch with blowing and drifting! Lol Indeed. The area on 309 by the pizza places south of Bear Rock Junction can get kind of funky as well. Yep two kings pizza, that is a bad spot. I have a bad feeling about this one, guarantee we will have guys stuck all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Okay, probably using the wrong terms.. but this 500 mb chart looks better (less positively tilted?) at 15 hrs than the 18Z did at 24 hrs. \ 00Z... 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Surface snowFALL. Not necessarily snow-stick. @36. I think the hi-res will give us a little more inkling. H5 also showed a little hesitation with the low ~33hours. It's figuring out the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM snow map is on target with expected snow totals but i worry about it usually being too wet and will feel better if GFS comes back to it's qpf levels at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Surface snowFALL. Not necessarily snow-stick. @36. I think the hi-res will give us a little more inkling. H5 also showed a little hesitation with the low ~33hours. It's figuring out the convection.yes This also assumes 10:1 -- so while there may be a period in the southern areas where the snow doesn't accumulate, the higher ratios should offset and then some. A solid 4-8" region wide (Philly, Wilmington, SNJ) seems very reasonable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Inverted trough the feature to watch with this. Extra qpf with higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Inverted trough the feature to watch with this. Extra qpf with higher ratios. Where is that showing up? (how do I see it on the upper air charts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Inverted trough the feature to watch with this. Extra qpf with higher ratios. Posted that earlier, the Hi-RES NAM shows it really well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Posted that earlier, the Hi-RES NAM shows it really well... yup coastal Monmouth and Ocean perhaps back toward mercer and northern Burlington as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yup coastal Monmouth and Ocean perhaps back toward mercer and northern Burlington as well. Sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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