KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The cold air will certainly help too. Given that the cold is extreme, and would be close to record breaking for this time of year, and with ocean temperatures not as cool as they would be in say February, could the contrast between the two potentially add to the strength of the storm? I imagine it's factored in if so, I'm curious because it is a greater contrast than we usually would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Given that the cold is extreme, and would be close to record breaking for this time of year, and with ocean temperatures not as cool as they would be in say February, could the contrast between the two potentially add to the strength of the storm? I imagine it's factored in if so, I'm curious because it is a greater contrast than we usually would have. For a widespread effect, the timing of the front interacting with the surface low and upper trough has to be right, though certainly there could be ocean enhancement along the coast no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 CTP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'm on my phone the rest of the day so reading models/maps is going to be difficult at best. Thoughts for your coal cracker friend up in the Skook? FWIW on the Euro snow map it looks like close to 6" , at 10:1 ratios, so 8" (maybe more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 FWIW on the Euro snow map it looks like close to 6" , at 10:1 ratios, so 8" (maybe more) Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thank you! You're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 New event. Winter Storm Watch from 1/2/2014 6:00 PM to 1/3/2014 10:00 AM EST for Philadelphia County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ235 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY ANDFRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUSCOLD....AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIATHURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ANDAWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOWIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAYNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILLOVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORMINTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA.DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>022-025>027-PAZ060-070-071-101>106-020500-/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.140102T2300Z-140103T1500Z/NEW CASTLE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN235 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES ANTICIPATED.* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTDURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTEDTHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULDSTART AS SOME RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LATER THURSDAY SOUTH ANDEAST OF PHILADELPHIA BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL SHOULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY EVENING ASSNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE. THIS WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY FLUFFYSNOW AND AS WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT, BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. ROAD PLOWINGOPERATIONS WOULD BE GREATLY AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY DUE TO BLOWINGAND DRIFTING SNOW AND ALSO SNOWFALL RATES NEAR AN INCH PER HOURAT TIMES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH,THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING FRIDAY.* TEMPERATURES...STARTING OUT RANGING BETWEEN ABOUT THE LOWER 30STO LOWER 40S THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN FALLING INTO THE 20S ANDTEENS THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS BYDAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHERE TEMPERATURES START OUT WELL ABOVEFREEZING THURSDAY, FLASH FREEZING CAN OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT ASTEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP BELOW FREEZING AND THE SNOW INCREASES.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF OF A MILE A TIMES THURSDAYNIGHT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUETO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$GORSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i guess maps are being updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 i guess maps are being updated? Lol...saw that too...slight heart skip for a moment or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Great trends today...wasn't expecting to go ws watch when I woke up to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 235 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS COLD... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING. A DANGEROUSLY COLD AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES OUT TO SEA. Since I was a kid, I've always loved that phrase - "Snow developing...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 As expected, the only thing more sure, the effect of a ten mile wide asteroid hitting the Earth ( I purposefully doubled the extinction size of the dinosaur's Wipeout asteroid ), is the absurdity of watching the flip flop model game of models. It is pure folly, as their winning percentage , based on long range 120 hours, are ALL around 20% ( being generous ). Halve the time, and they are wildly divergent, and professional Meteorologists use a term, "BLEND" ( as in knowing the biases inherent in each model ) what could all be bad physics or initialization, and mix on a weather palette. This isn't conjecture, as there are thousands of posts proving the reliance on models, like finding pyrite, and thinking it is gold. Yes, they are helpful in showing who the players may be, and where other mere meteorological tools, can work. I admit, I'm a JB fan, he's a snow lover. But, his teleconnections is "old school", but accurate. His analog years, a little more his "out there" brand, he merges with his weather sense OF OUR REGION. He is intimately familiar with the tendencies, bias , and history of past storms when fashioning his FORECAST. Surface maps, soundings, water vapor imagery, the season to date, all have more value than entrusting a model, where like a roulette wheel, it comes up 50-50, red or black, one a bust. The jackpot green holds one tiny space. We don't know each other, but I'm a techie. I am working with engineers on my own project, so exacting, as we wanted perfection, and projected performance is based on that perfection. Models are by analogy, in their infancy. I know it's boring to plot surface maps, and keep a memory store of teleconnections, looking up soundings, but the resources are there. I could get a bulls eye at darts ( and I'm lousy at the game ), as be a model and hit the correct outcome. I used to say of meteorologists, just as a joke, what would happen in other real world jobs, where your accuracy was reduced to nowcasting, and looking out a window? JB loves to call out the point and click forecasts. They get paid, right or wrong. In other day jobs, this performance would be unacceptable. The personnel and members of NOAA, are exemplary, and filled with talent. I wish they had the resources given them, to set up the systems which would help these models with their physics' biases, which as currently constructed, produce an oscilloscope of ups and downs, the pogo sticks barometers of members who live and die with each run. My answer....CHILL , by the end of this system, we have two more months, plus a week or two, to be satiated. Its all good. My call based upon the current surface maps, the improving h5, the seeming intensity only now being felt by the models ( Nam was there ) of the lagging low, putting too much front end energy into the first low, is a solid 3-5" for Philly Metro. Get cold air in faster, or some deformation banding, up to a quick 8-10", like our first December storm. HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. EDIT: I HAD CHECKED NYC METRO NOAA BEFORE TYPING, AND UPTON ISSUED A WSW, AND I FIGURED, WE WOULD GET THERE TOO. I COULDN'T SEE THAT UPDATE HERE, UNTIL I POSTED, WITH MY SPEED AND DELIBERATION ( TWO FINGER TYPIST ), IN WHICH A SNAIL WOULD WIN ANY TYPING CONTEST. Mt. Holly 3-7" = a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Nice negative tilt @ 36! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!! And CHILL. We have tons of fun headed our way in the form of that crystalline purity, a wonder of nature, the love of which I never outgrow. EDIT: I HAD CHECKED NYC METRO NOAA BEFORE TYPING, AND UPTON ISSUED A WSW, AND I FIGURED, WE WOULD GET THERE TOO. I COULDN'T SEE THAT UPDATE HERE, UNTIL I POSTED, WITH MY SPEED AND DELIBERATION ( TWO FINGER TYPIST ), IN WHICH A SNAIL WOULD WIN ANY TYPING CONTEST. Happy New Year to you too Mike! And, it's okay, feel free to update your forecast if you would like! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Happy New Year to you too Mike! And, it's okay, feel free to update your forecast if you would like! j/k Hopefully you're talking about snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM total snowfall.. Looks like 4-6" Philly area, not factoring in better ratios..so maybe call it 5-9"? Heaviest snows seem to have shifted a bit NE. NYC looks like they're in for a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Hopefully you're talking about snow. lol....I thought we were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 So is this going to be mostly overnight Thurs into Fri? Guess i'm going to have a couple fun commutes to end the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 While the models have gotten wetter, the exact set up of the main CCBs are still in question. I think we have to go down to the wire on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I would be cautious there blizzardlover...18z NAM not the most reliable - plus I would bet the big "winner" with accumulation will be wherever the inverted trof sets up....which will likely be somewhere between Cape May and west bound up to somewhere out on Long Island NAM total snowfall.. Looks like 4-6" Philly area, not factoring in better ratios..so maybe call it 5-9"? Heaviest snows seem to have shifted a bit NE. NYC looks like they're in for a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 "Thursday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a northeast wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible." Point and click for the jersey shore Monmouth county. That's really close to the B word with those winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 mt holly AFD THERE IS A SMALL CHC WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER A BLIZZARDWARNING FOR MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES BUT FOR NOW...ITS ONLY A 20PCT CHANCE IN OUR MINDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just a note that, based on modeling right now at least, I would not expect the good ratios to kick in until after midnight Friday Thursday night. Before then its too warm for... well, probably for anything better than 12:1. At least, along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 fired up snow blower today. new carb. , runs great. from glenn: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Did Glenn offer any amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Just a note that, based on modeling right now at least, I would not expect the good ratios to kick in until after midnight Friday night. Before then its too warm for... well, probably for anything better than 12:1. At least, along I-95. I'm forecasting clear skies friday night... looks like someone is gonna be very wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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