Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Notice the use of the word 'potential' as this still seems to be a fragile setup for everything to really come together at the right time. Lots of impulses swinging around the PV trying to phase with southern energy, lots of time and details to hatch out. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Its looking more and more like this will be a northern stream storm (miller B...We could still do very well here. I think the potential exists for a 4-8" type deal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ralph this one is going to deliver a winter storm to our area.....now how high an impact .....always a question this far out. Something tells me many here will have a few doubts when the GFS delivers it's customary out to sea solution within the next few days....should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I don't see the miller b scenario especially with the arctic air mass entrenched over the NE and northern mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 0z gfs takes forever to get the northern energy to phase with the southern vort. By the time there's a phase, its too late for us. Just another possibility on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 0z gfs takes forever to get the northern energy to phase with the southern vort. By the time there's a phase, its too late for us. Just another possibility on the table. 0z euro follows the same path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 6z gfs only manages snow showers and flurries for the area with the system. Holds on to the primary too long which also appears farther north this run and is slow to redevelop the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The shortwave is going neutral too fast, WAA occurs ahead of it, the secondary doesn't form south enough to save us, but there is still hope. A lot of the GFS ensembles are still big hits & EURO ens looked good. Long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Agree - Highzenberg - take a peek at the vendor blog for some other views - not really relying on models. That said my latest Wxsim with 6z data is just a few flakes and nothing more. I again thing the truth will be some where in the middle but the pattern still screams for a significant storm later this week....now whether we are shoveling in our back yards.....that is the question. Should be an interesting week of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather25m The current atmospheric pattern evolution points to a solution much like the colder ECMWF ensemble than other guidance. Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather29m Studying all the data and frankly I think of all the data, the Ensemble models are handling this pattern the best. Does this sort of thing not belong in the Vendor thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 12z GFS not a lot different consistency starting to show in a bad way. My pessimistic view from yesterday is looking justified. Northern branch systems usually trend north as time gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If the trend for the potential snow event continues (in the meh direction), will some of those influencing factors tend moderate the cold outbreak that's been modeled? (Thinking primarily of the PV placement/movement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 If the trend for the potential snow event continues (in the meh direction), will some of those influencing factors tend moderate the cold outbreak that's been modeled? (Thinking primarily of the PV placement/movement). Cold shot still coming as scheduled. The big problem is that nothing is in place to keep the cold around thus another warm-up and more rain should follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ECM has been such a tease in the 5-6 day time frame these last two winters. Should have tempered my excitement untill there was some continuity in runs North trend continues with the big surges in arctic air, less blocking materializing than modeled in extended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ECM has been such a tease in the 5-6 day time frame these last two winters. Should have tempered my excitement untill there was some continuity in runs North trend continues with the big surges in arctic air, less blocking materializing than modeled in extended Agree that without the NAO going negative and providing some blocking there is a very little chance of the cold air to interact with a southern jet stream vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 18z GFS says forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 18z GFS says forget it. But the ensembles say wait, don't give up yet. For what it's worth, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The individuals are WAY more robust, a few show pretty hefty snowstorms, very surprising actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The individuals are WAY more robust, a few show pretty hefty snowstorms, very surprising actually.In actuality, nothing really seems surprising anymore after the Eagles snowbowl game were just a couple of hours before some areas got nearly a foot of snow those very same areas were being called for less than an inch!! We'll all know much better what's going to happen come Thursday/Friday after the storm has arrived/ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 In actuality, nothing really seems surprising anymore after the Eagles snowbowl game were just a couple of hours before some areas got nearly a foot of snow those very same areas were being called for less than an inch!! We'll all know much better what's going to happen come Thursday/Friday after the storm has arrived/ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is a MECS for anyone north of 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Cold shot still coming as scheduled. The big problem is that nothing is in place to keep the cold around thus another warm-up and more rain should follow. Thanks....seeing it in the forecast temps for Friday and Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Euro is a MECS for anyone north of 40N. Trenton is mainly rain and ice, it changes over very late, 850's are just barely falling below 0C as the precip is moving out. An interesting profile at hour 108 (12Z Friday) with temps -7 to -10 from the surface up to 900 then near 0C at 850 and 800. That would be sleet, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Trenton is mainly rain and ice, it changes over very late, 850's are just barely falling below 0C as the precip is moving out. An interesting profile at hour 108 (12Z Friday) with temps -7 to -10 from the surface up to 900 then near 0C at 850 and 800. That would be sleet, verbatim.Philly northern burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Philly northern burbs? I presume you might mean "around Ambler"? Its a bit colder so you would do better, verbatim. Trenton looks like about 3 inches of snow after sleet and ice and rain. Out your way, maybe 4 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can you even imagine, a 7-10+ event followed by an arctic airmass...wintry heaven. Now watch 12z tomorrow go back to a disorganized disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Can you even imagine, a 7-10+ event followed by an arctic airmass...wintry heaven. Now watch 12z tomorrow go back to a disorganized disaster. Verbatim this will feel like a disorganized disaster for the PHL area where the changeover takes forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I presume you might mean "around Ambler"? Its a bit colder so you would do better, verbatim. Trenton looks like about 3 inches of snow after sleet and ice and rain. Out your way, maybe 4 or 5 inches. We'll, yes there and a bit further up near hill town!Thanks...that'll do!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 EC has 3F at PHL at 7AM Saturday morning, -1F at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Trenton is mainly rain and ice, it changes over very late, 850's are just barely falling below 0C as the precip is moving out. An interesting profile at hour 108 (12Z Friday) with temps -7 to -10 from the surface up to 900 then near 0C at 850 and 800. That would be sleet, verbatim.More ice than rain for TTN...the surface freezing line doesn't make it very far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.