FallsLake Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Only looking at the 12z NAM it looks great for a potential winter storm going out to 84 hours. It has 850s running from upstate SC through SE NC and nice high pressure building in from the mid-west. At the same time precip is building and spreading up from Texas and Lousiania. With the models so chaotic on a final solution, it's refreshing to stop at hour 84 and then use human judgement on possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anyone have a quick analysis of the Euro ensembles from last night compared to the op?looks like it sends a low thru the nc piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Unfortunately: so basically a lil bit of everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It doesn't really look to me like it's holding it back as much as it's keeping it well north of what the GFS has but someone else can chime in as my 5h maps do not give much detail. Yep, that's the way I see it as well. It's not a speed issue, it's just not digging as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It seems that the Euro has had a bias to overamplify systems at times the past three winters, especially in the medium range.fixed! We have all seen the euro be too amped with east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 looks like it sends a low thru the nc piedmont.The op crashed the low into the southern Apps, so I guess it's a little further east than the op.Very true about the last few winters, Franklin. I vividly remember the massive Euro fluff bomb at about this range with the last snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 so basically a lil bit of everything No, only rain. Quit posting in my backyard questions and go to weather.com for all your questions. That will be the best place to hangout if you feel the need to post imby questions here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm just wondering "aloud" so to speak but isn't it the tendency for models to trend N/W within 24 hours of an event lately? If so, wouldn't we want this to be further suppressed than what's being represented by the models so far? I am not so sure this part of GA even has a dog in the hunt but I do worry about this thing clobbering the MA and points north leaving a cold rain for most of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The models don't have a handle on this yet, still too far out with too many pieces of energy flying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So many people don't realize how much the mountains affect our weather in the NW part of the upstate. It really is a mystery that would be a very popular subject for study. It's not a mystery at all. With what's being modeled right now, I would say if anything *does in fact happen, it will be more of a Miller B type track. This does not lend itself to upstate SC snow because of reasons such as downsloping and/or moisture transfer. If it were a true Miller A track, the mountains would have much less impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, just viewed the rest of the run. Wow. This went like I told my colleague earlier today, a total 3 part storm...basically combine 2005 with March 2009 and wham. For NC anyway . I'd say that big high damming down has followed the synoptic rule book to a tee. Watch for wholesale changes on Euro soon. That key is just how super charged the Arctic wave is coming across the Pole. This could evolve into a major Southeast Winter storm, long lived. Rings a bell for me to something along the lines of 2009, with days of rain ahead of a major snowstorm. I can do without any ice, and that 1040 high staying in place and driving northeast winds down here is dangerous looking all the way to near Atlanta. The models never capture true damming right, and this one is a reinforcing, growing CAD shown on GFS atleast. That western system closes off into bowling ball cutoff....cutting through mid South. The Euro was further south, but not as closed. This could easily trend into an incredible Winter storm for many folks, front end, back end and some will be non stop Winter precip. Nightmare to forecasters. But the 5H trends have shown this a while now. I"d bet this evolves into a monster of some type. This was posted Saturday morning and it may not come to pass. But the crazy models solutions that we are seeing do have some credibility. Robert is great at forecasting patterns for our area. I believe Allan has been on the train all last week as well in regards to the potential this weekend is offering up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm just wondering "aloud" so to speak but isn't it the tendency for models to trend N/W within 24 hours of an event lately? If so, wouldn't we want this to be further suppressed than what's being represented by the models so far? I am not so sure this part of GA even has a dog in the hunt but I do worry about this thing clobbering the MA and points north leaving a cold rain for most of the SE.This is a bit of a different situation than we've seen this year....or maybe I should say, it COULD be. If the confluence in the NE is strong and stays in place, you may see more of a tendency of the system to transfer farther south and east than, say, the Euro shows.The normal NW trend tends to occur because you're dealing with models showing an arctic front in the LR that blasts through and suppresses wave development. In reality, it often doesn't blast through with such vigor, so you get this magical NW trend as you work in, when it's really the model getting a better handle on the extent of the cold air penetration. This case, at this time, appears to be more of a damming setup, which quite frequently tends to trend stronger as we close in. But there are still a lot of moving parts, and anything from showers to heavy rain to an ice storm to heavy snow are pretty much equally on the table, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just my early guess but I'll bet the 12z is further north. Who knows with it so far out but just out to 90 confluence doesn't look as good to our north and that PV isn't dropping as far south as previous runs had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This was posted Saturday morning and it may not come to pass. But the crazy models solutions that we are seeing do have some credibility. Robert is great at forecasting patterns for our area. I believe Allan has been on the train all last week as well in regards to the potential this weekend is offering up. And in contrast Greg Fishel all but guaranteed a couple of days ago that we will have no winter weather here this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And in contrast Greg Fishel all but guaranteed a couple of days ago that we will have no winter weather here this weekend. He could easily be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The only reason I'll entertain the NAM this far out is because of its superior ability to handle low level cold and CAD events. It is good to hear someone posted the confluence looked good and there was good damming setting up on the 84 hr run. Take it how you want but NAM is the superior model for these types of setups even tho it sometimes sucks at forecasting low tracks and precip. On my phone but does anyone know what kind of HP millibar wise the NAM was showing at 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS looks a good bit north @117. Nothing up north to really suppress it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He could easily be correct. Yes, looks after that weenie run last night for the GFS that it is now starting to cut and not dig. I think that is what WxSouth said the difference would be, that the models are not showing the digging right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS looks fine to me, so far, probably won't be as good as 0z run, but it's going to be a beast for someone. Out to 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 @129 it's trying to dig. That PV up in the NE is further east of the 6z run so that could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 12z GFS looks a good bit north @117. Nothing up north to really suppress it. A little more phasing so it'll be a bit further north. Although downstream ridge is more suppressed so it may delay the neg tilt a bit... we'll see. It's warmer out ahead of it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks good to me through 138, not going to be as far north as 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Burger, are you comparing to the 00z run or the 06z? Sorry, I'm on my phone... Thanks, in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sorry a bit off topic but would appreciate any feedback anyone wants to give. In looking at the meteogram generated by this site, it appears that GSP would get a nasty dose of ice per both the 0z and 6z GFS.....Am I interpretting this correctly? The reason I ask is because I thought I saw some say hear that we were mostly rain. Thanks http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kgsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Problem with the 12z is that it's not nearly as cold. No 1040 high up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Play book:: GFS 6z ,12z farther North, No Building High pressure Miller B GFS 18z, 0z farther South, Building High Pressure Miller A This has been the play book for the last 3 or 4 days! But 1 thing you should be aware of 6z, 12z is coming closer to the 18z , 0z run each passing day.We are now not talking an Apps runner on any of the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Close to 6z, but warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Ice ice baby!! Yikes looks rough for VA western NC at 147. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Need a weaker ULL for stronger HP and miller A track. 0z GFS was almost there with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Need a weaker ULL for stronger HP and miller A track. 0z GFS was almost there with it. Talk about toeing the line with this one, still 6+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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