Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Going all-in already?..... In reality, I don't believe the Euro has a good handle on the low-level cold air yet. It should come around. It has been making steps toward a GFS-like solution for a few runs now. As a side note, just from observation over the last few years, it appears that the Euro gives some weight to its' previous run when coming to a solution within 7 days. This would prevent large run-to-run shifts of the solution. Thoughts? That's very possible. The Euro doesn't look like it even has a high pressure center in the NE, though there are higher pressures up there (at least looking at the coarse ewall maps). The GFS has a 1032 hp zone to the north and northwest. The upper-level confluence looks pretty strong. If that is correct, then I would expect to see high pressure trend stronger. If that happens, the wedging will be stronger. IF that happens and IF the storm DOES NOT cut too far west, then we should see all of the models trend toward a Miller B-type solution farther south than what the Euro is showing. I would give low odds to a Miller A. The pattern looks more Miller Bish to me. We need the confluence to hang in and we need the storm to not get too wrapped up too far west. If both happen, then there will be widespread winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 As I went back and studied the DGEX a little more (I can't believe I said that), most of the snow comes from another system later in the run that turns into a noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm routing for a miller A. been a long time since we've had a great snowstorm and it would do a lot of healing for everyone who has been wanting snow. come on miller A or if its a miller B I think I read where some storms have produced snow at times, what ever or which ever type storm I'm cheering for snow. Plus aren't all the models except the Euro showing snow. Robert seems to think the Euro will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 IF the trough trends weaker (less phasing), the confluence grows stronger. The surface low will stay farther south and increase chances of a Miller A scenario. The GFS has moved this way and you can see the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've see some crazy DGEX runs, but that might take the cake. Is that 42" up towards Reidsville? For first time ever I think I would say I do not want what the DGEX clown maps show. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looking from the ATL-AHN corridor's perspective at the 6z GFS, that 1043ish NE sfc high on 2/9 is not far below as strong a high as you can get in the NE US providing great CAD based on many hours of looking at old wx maps. 1043 mb = a whopping 30.80". The strongest I've seen is about 30.95". Highs that CAD nicely into the SE are much more often in the 30.50-30.65" range. That's not because the stronger highs are not more favorable. It is because they are much rarer. 30.80" could easily be close to, if not, the strongest high in any given year in the NE US. I've found only 5 of 29 major ZR's in ATL produced by highs in the 30.80-.95" range over the last 130+ years! The average is only 30.62". So, if the 6z GFS is really onto something with the strength of the high, it may very well be signaling a major ZR threat for N GA, especially considering the current most favorable neutral negative ENSO. Now, verbatim, the run is too warm at the sfc (high 30's) and 850's are too warm on this run vs. climo to give much support to ZR in N GA. Otoh, the 0z GFS 850's were cold enough. Finally, early Feb has seen several major ZR's in ATL and it is close enough to the peak of the end of January to warrant concern. In summary, this certainly bears watching for N GA even though many GFS/Euro runs have shown little or no ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 IF the trough trends weaker (less phasing), the confluence grows stronger. The surface low will stay farther south and increase chances of a Miller A scenario. The GFS has moved this way and you can see the results. RIght on Wow. When looking at the trends of the ensembles the last SEVERAL days (GFS), you can really see those chances increasing. If those trends continue we could, at the very least, be looking at a hybrid A/B, which would probably be a score for many on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Look at the moisture available this week on the GFS-ENS. IF we get the right upper level/surface combination, look out, a lot of people may get crushed. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014020306/gfs-ens_apcpn24_namer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just looking at some raw data from the 06zGFS, it has surface temps in the upper 20's to around 30 with > 1.25 inches of precip for MBY. 850's do drop to freezing during the heaviest precip and 925's get as low as -5C.haven't looked at 750mb and up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, with that heavy of precipitation it should overcome minor plus temperatures in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I really think that this storm is going to deliver big especially for the CAD regions. This year just about every storm has trended colder and wetter. This storm is already a monster. In my short time watching the weather and model watching CAD seems to be modeled not as strong until close to the event. With that strong HP in place I think this storm might be one to remember for a large part of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm routing for a miller A. been a long time since we've had a great snowstorm and it would do a lot of healing for everyone who has been wanting snow. come on miller A or if its a miller B I think I read where some storms have produced snow at times, what ever or which ever type storm I'm cheering for snow. Plus aren't all the models except the Euro showing snow. Robert seems to think the Euro will come around. IF the trough trends weaker (less phasing), the confluence grows stronger. The surface low will stay farther south and increase chances of a Miller A scenario. The GFS has moved this way and you can see the results. You can't deny the trends. It seems to be digging more like Robert said it would as the models get a better handle on this. I don't know if we'll see that monster storm the GFS showed last night, but I think the signs are all there that we could have something big, maybe a mix of the Miller A and B scenerio. Either way it looks like a lot of folks could see snow, ice, or a mix of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I really think that this storm is going to deliver big especially for the CAD regions. This year just about every storm has trended colder and wetter. This storm is already a monster. In my short time watching the weather and model watching CAD seems to be modeled not as strong until close to the event. With that strong HP in place I think this storm might be one to remember for a large part of this forum. You're just excited because you saw the dgex. But yeah, I agree that this one has a decent chance to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I really think that this storm is going to deliver big especially for the CAD regions. This year just about every storm has trended colder and wetter. This storm is already a monster. In my short time watching the weather and model watching CAD seems to be modeled not as strong until close to the event. With that strong HP in place I think this storm might be one to remember for a large part of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Another thing to keep in mind. The system that just came through TN yesterday and last night was projected to be a wound up system 4 days ago. It then trended weaker and further southeast over the next several days and even though weaker, still produced 2.5 inch + QPF amounts across parts of the state. The system for this weekend, even if weaker and further southeast will have the potential (even the likelihood) to carry heavy amounts of precip with it. One last thing. There is a system BEFORE all this - around hours 96-114 that you guys in NC should keep an eye on. There are a few GFS individual members (5 of them on the 6z, 6 on the 0z) that project snow for you guys. Basically 1/2 of the members.........I don't see a thread for it, but it's under 5 days and could be an appetizer for the one that comes behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WPC http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php FOR NOW... AN ENSEMBLE BLEND SUN-MON/D6-7 SEEMS APPROPRIATE AND RECENT 90-DAY VERIFICATION SHOWS THE ECENS MEAN AND GEFS MEAN ARE THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS AT DAY 7 OVER THECONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Another thing to keep in mind. The system that just came through TN yesterday and last night was projected to be a wound up system 4 days ago. It then trended weaker and further southeast over the next several days and even though weaker, still produced 2.5 inch + QPF amounts across parts of the state. The system for this weekend, even if weaker and further southeast will have the potential (even the likelihood) to carry heavy amounts of precip with it. One last thing. There is a system BEFORE all this - around hours 96-114 that you guys in NC should keep an eye on. There are a few GFS individual members (5 of them on the 6z, 6 on the 0z) that project snow for you guys. Basically 1/2 of the members.........I don't see a thread for it, but it's under 5 days and could be an appetizer for the one that comes behind it. Haha, I was just about to comment on that man. You beat me to it. It looks borderline on the Ops, but with a weak low passing south and a high up to the NW, it's something to watch. 850 line is not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You're just excited because you saw the dgex. But yeah, I agree that this one has a decent chance to trend colder. I will accept this role as a weenie. I'm proud of it. May everyone get a foot plus this weekend!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Haha, I was just about to comment on that man. You beat me to it. It looks borderline on the Ops, but with a weak low passing south and a high up to the NW, it's something to watch. 850 line is not too far away. what does it look like for South Carolina at this point, especially the upstate and piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anyone have a quick analysis of the Euro ensembles from last night compared to the op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SIGH, once again, nw upstate is nearly skipped. Oconee an Pickens counties less than 3 on this run while everyone else gets buried. Amazing how it always happens (I know this is just a model run, but it reflects what always seems to occur). So many people don't realize how much the mountains affect our weather in the NW part of the upstate. It really is a mystery that would be a very popular subject for study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anyone have a quick analysis of the Euro ensembles from last night compared to the op? Very close to the Op. Still 6-7 days away, once it gets within 5 days on the Euro we will know if there is hope or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anyone have a quick analysis of the Euro ensembles from last night compared to the op? Not as far NW as the OP. Appears the Euro OP is the NW outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teconnectivity2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So many people don't realize how much the mountains affect our weather in the NW part of the upstate. It really is a mystery that would be a very popular subject for study. well what about around York, SC and Rock Hill, SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Very close to the Op. Still 6-7 days away, once it gets within 5 days on the Euro we will know if there is hope or not. Not as far NW as the OP. Appears the Euro OP is the NW outlier at this point. Thanks. Is the Euro bias of holding back the energy in play here possibly causing the system to phase or cut further to the west instead of bringing the upper energy east like the GFS is depicting? It also looks like there is a chance of a bowling ball type of system even if it doesn't dig enough to become a miller A. Those systems can be feast or famine for folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 well what about around York, SC and Rock Hill, SC? I would look at the model, GFS is widely available and free of charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 what does it look like for South Carolina at this point, especially the upstate and piedmont? Unfortunately: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thanks. Is the Euro bias of holding back the energy in play here possibly causing the system to phase or cut further to the west instead of bringing the upper energy east like the GFS is depicting? It also looks like there is a chance of a bowling ball type of system even if it doesn't dig enough to become a miller A. Those systems can be feast or famine for folks. It doesn't really look to me like it's holding it back as much as it's keeping it well north of what the GFS has but someone else can chime in as my 5h maps do not give much detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thanks. Is the Euro bias of holding back the energy in play here possibly causing the system to phase or cut further to the west instead of bringing the upper energy east like the GFS is depicting? It also looks like there is a chance of a bowling ball type of system even if it doesn't dig enough to become a miller A. Those systems can be feast or famine for folks. It seems that the Euro has had a bias to overamplify systems at times this winter, especially in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.