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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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The euro has the ULL closed off over Idaho at h72 the gfs had similar positioning but wasn't closed off. Everything else looks similar. Can't see the high latitudes though.

Edit: at h96 same thing, stronger energy in the west everything else looks same, we'll see what it does when it comes east, but it may cut it's so amped.

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1012 low in southern MS at 144 on euro, h5 looks east of gfs at same time but more of a neutral tilt also, temps look warmer than gfs at 850. 

 

EDIT: At 168 theres a 992 low off of the new england coast, need frames in between to determine ptypes but it looks interesting, now all operational models indicate a low off of the SE coast for this time period! Unless the euro miller b's us. Can't tell.

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Just looking at the 24-hour free panels right now, but I think the Euro just Miller B'd us.  Time for bed.

 

EDIT: The WeatherBell maps just came in and it looks like something of a cross between an Apps Runner and a Miller B... very far north handoff.  It's not really a solution we want.  No reason for panic, though.  It's the most amplified model at this point, isn't it?  I think that's a positive trend from past Euro runs.

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1005 mb low over Rome GA @150 hours...looks like an Apps Runner or possible Miller-B exchange.

 

 

1003 mb low over Southwest North Carolina @ 156...all in all I think the Euro is getting closer to the idea of the GFS.

 

We got an entire week of model watching coming up...

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What Goofy giveth, the not so good doctor taketh away. The 0Z Euro is producing virtually no wintry precip. over the SE US, period. On to the 6Z Goofy! Remember, it isn't easy being just a friendly messenger. Please allow me to survive.

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I hear you, but the models have settled their variability down somewhat and mostly show a fairly stable zonal-type pattern. Yeah, it's a split flow...people keep saying that as though that's some sort of magic winter storm recipe...but if the mean storm track is through the center of the nation as opposed to the southern tier, which it looks like it predominately will be, then that makes me think about my board name...a lot. Good thing is, we're in early Feb. But we need to start seeing some decent signs of something else soon, or we're going to be in mid-Feb. And a cold shot in March most likely won't be nearly as cold as one in mid-Feb, so it'll be even harder to get snow. I don't think winter is over, but I'd like to see the models agree with me soon. :)

Lol, you can't scare me.  Which model has settled down the variability?  Like the 0z gfs tonight, or the ones from earlier :)  I like the one tonight giving me at least two good chances at frozen, during the time it assured me earlier would be zonal and warm, lol.  I don't trust 'em over two days out...any of them....unless one gets a solution and keeps it for two days. Oh, and to me the split flow is always the magic bullet :) I am guilty of that, lol,  I love me a split flow!!  Chance enhanced.  T

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I'm not exactly sure how this is going to play out but I have to think the potential is there for us to have a deepening low pressure coming across some portion of the Southeast US by this upcoming weekend...this has big ticket potential for some areas, we just need to get that track to solidify itself during the next several days...

 

And with that, I'm off to bed!

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KGSP AFD Long Term

 

Will be interesting to see how this evolves as Storm #1 and #2 get out of the way before the weekend.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 2 AM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING OVER THE SE CONUS AS THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON SUNDAY AND
LIFTING NE OF THE CWFA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WHICH IS NEW DAY 7.

AT THE SFC...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SFC PATTERN AND THERMAL PROFILE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURS WITH
SOME SORT OF WEDGE PATTERN BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THIS POINT...THE MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE LOWS TO OUR SOUTH
AND SW. THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS NOW DELAYS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NORTHERN GULF LOW UNTIL SUN AND MOVES IT UP THE CAROLINA COAST
ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. IF THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY
PANS OUT AS DEPICTED...IT COULD PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...BUT I AM BETTING THIS
DEPICTION WILL CHANGE OVER THE COMING MODEL RUNS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE OLDER 12Z RUN OF THE ECWMF DEVELOPS A LOW FARTHER NE THAN
THE GFS AND HAS THE SYSTEM CLEAR OF THE FCST AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. I DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE POP TRENDS AND STILL HAVE POPS RAMPING UP LATE THURS THRU FRI
WITH HIGH END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY FOR SAT AND MOST OF SUN.
VALUES TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY MORNING FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD. P-TYPES REMAIN A MIXED BAG AT THIS POINT WITH COMBINATIONS
OF RAIN...FRZ RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW...BASED ON BOURGOUIN PROFILE
TECHNIQUES...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOSTLY RAIN FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH LOWER POPS BY
THAT TIME.
..IT DOESNT APPEAR TOO LIKELY AT THIS POINT. TEMPS SHOULD
SHOW A REDUCED DIURNAL TREND THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMO THRU DAY 6.
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Not sure I would see a weenie run for this coming weekend depicted better than what the oz the GFS spit out last Friday morning, but after seeing last nights, boy was I wrong. Those are Hall of Fame weenie runs if there ever was one. Hopefully we can get lucky this weekend. Spring will be coming on gangbusters very soon.

6z GFS still does a number on western NC and northern foothills, triad but it's a mixed bag. This run storm is inland about 100 miles further, kind of Euroish. Nice to see CMC and Ukie all in the same neighborhood with GFS and euro ops and ens. be interesting week ahead for sure.

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I thought the Euro took a step but it's tough to get on board since it's been showing much of the same solution now a few runs in a row. I would feel better if it was showing a different solution each run. That being said CMC took a jump and it looks like the ukie is on board now. Had to argue against those three. Not to mention what Robert has been honking these past few days. 

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I thought the Euro took a step but it's tough to get on board since it's been showing much of the same solution now a few runs in a row. I would feel better if it was showing a different solution each run. That being said CMC took a jump and it looks like the ukie is on board now. Had to argue against those three. Not to mention what Robert has been honking these past few days. 

Yep, Canadian looks snowy for western and parts of central NC. 0z GFS was a big-time winter storm, and the 6z looks quite icy in many NC areas. 6z GFS ensemble mean seems to put a little more emphasis on the coastal low than the primary. Euro is obviously warmer, so we will see.

 

BTW, the 6z GFS is in fact a nasty ice storm for some. BUFKIT soundings show 1.75"-2" of QPF has freezing precip for CLT and GSO (probably some IP for some of that in GSO).

 

Again, NOT A FORECAST... just showing the wide array of possibilities.

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Yep, Canadian looks snowy for western and parts of central NC. 0z GFS was a big-time winter storm, and the 6z looks quite icy in many NC areas. 6z GFS ensemble mean seems to put a little more emphasis on the coastal low than the primary. Euro is obviously warmer, so we will see.

 

BTW, the 6z GFS is in fact a nasty ice storm for some. BUFKIT soundings show 1.75"-2" of QPF has freezing precip for CLT and GSO (probably some IP for some of that in GSO).

 

Again, NOT A FORECAST... just showing the wide array of possibilities.

 

You forgot to post your fantastic video from this morning. 

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OK.  Definitely a little more consensus on at least a storm with some potential for a mixed bag in the CAD regions.  Two images for you, the first is the 6z GFS ensemble mean with a low pressure in a pretty favorable area for many:

gfs-ens_mslpa_sd_us_27.png

And one for entertainment and historical purposes, the 6z DGEX.  The weenies will want to save this image!

eta.totsnow192.gif

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Yep, Canadian looks snowy for western and parts of central NC. 0z GFS was a big-time winter storm, and the 6z looks quite icy in many NC areas. 6z GFS ensemble mean seems to put a little more emphasis on the coastal low than the primary. Euro is obviously warmer, so we will see.

 

BTW, the 6z GFS is in fact a nasty ice storm for some. BUFKIT soundings show 1.75"-2" of QPF has freezing precip for CLT and GSO (probably some IP for some of that in GSO).

 

Again, NOT A FORECAST... just showing the wide array of possibilities.

Looking through the lense at my own back yard. Every model out right now exceeds winter storm warning criteria for this weekend. The only possible exception is the euro op/ens because I can only guess with the LP/HP placement on what others have posted. Hard to see exact ptype details. But I'm guessing even it lends a hand to some ice mixing with cold rain. I'm all in on this one with this much barking by the models and getting within 5 days now.

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Unfortunately the 06z GFS has an ice storm for NC and caves back to the Miller B scenario. Has a 997mb low over KY and a 1000mb low over Eastern NC. Much more realistic scenario and a lot different from a single 995mb low over the OBX.

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Unfortunately the 06z GFS has an ice storm for NC and caves back to the Miller B scenario. Has a 997mb low over KY and a 1000mb low over Eastern NC. Much more realistic scenario and a lot different from a single 995mb low over the OBX.

 

If I'm not mistaken, the 6Z GFS ensembles still had one low over Eastern NC, so that possibility is still there.

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Looking through the lense at my own back yard. Every model out right now exceeds winter storm warning criteria for this weekend. The only possible exception is the euro op/ens because I can only guess with the LP/HP placement on what others have posted. Hard to see exact ptype details. But I'm guessing even it lends a hand to some ice mixing with cold rain. I'm all in on this one with this much barking by the models and getting within 5 days now.

Going all-in already?..... In reality, I don't believe the Euro has a good handle on the low-level cold air yet. It should come around. It has been making steps toward a GFS-like solution for a few runs now. As a side note, just from observation over the last few years, it appears that the Euro gives some weight to its' previous run when coming to a solution within 7 days. This would prevent large run-to-run shifts of the solution. Thoughts?

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If I'm not mistaken, the 6Z GFS ensembles still had one low over Eastern NC, so that possibility is still there.

Oh sure the possibility is still there. The 06z GFS ensembles has a low over eastern NC but that wouldn't be a Miller A solution bringing the heavy snowfall like the 06z. The ensembles support a Miller B and you can tell if you look at the 06z anomaly map, see the U shape? Ignore the red L for the placement of the low, there are actually two there, another over KY which supports the 06z OP.

 

06z

pX7ynr8.png

 

contrast that with 00z GFS ensemble mean

NfSyvbF.png

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