SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What stopped it from cutting? It looked as if it had a neutral tilt back in Tx. and just stayed that way until it cut off in Alabama. Like packbacker I thought for sure it was going to cut up the apps. the low was weak and the therefore the let guided it until it was off the coast. the 18z ensembles hinted at this also. haha JB debunking this right away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What stopped it from cutting? It looked as if it had a neutral tilt back in Tx. and just stayed that way until it cut off in Alabama. Like packbacker I thought for sure it was going to cut up the apps.Was it too weak to cut and just sneaks by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 the low was weak and the therefore the let guided it until it was off the coast. the 18z ensembles hinted at this also. haha JB debunking this right away He is probably right, these storms always trend NW, a miller b fits the pattern, but I still think we can slop our way to some flakes and light icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SIGH, once again, nw upstate is nearly skipped. Oconee an Pickens counties less than 3 on this run while everyone else gets buried. Amazing how it always happens (I know this is just a model run, but it reflects what always seems to occur). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 CMC -- low forming off N.Orleans at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We get a run similar to this about every 4-6 cycles. About the time I'm okay with letting it go, it sucks me right back in!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If we can just get the storm to this position in 162 hours we may have a chance, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like a good portion of GA/SC are snow to end the event. Will check it out on soundings in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Actually, it looks like SN to IP to SN here. 96 ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 *bookmarked image* lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Any update on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GA looks to be in snow from hour 168 running I-85. Everything north of there is in snow through 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z GFS snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Any update on the CMC? Has a broad low that rounds the corner off GA/SC and than rapidly deepens, quicker than the GFS, but still shows a lot of potential, need Allens maps to update to get better details. Let's face it, we need the Euro to show this, or something close. The NAVGEM shows a triple phaser, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Has a broad low that rounds the corner off GA/SC and than rapidly deepens, quicker than the GFS, but still shows a lot of potential, need Allens maps to update to get better details. Let's face it, we need the Euro to show this, or something close. The NAVGEM shows a triple phaser, Wow it's been noted 5 million times, but the NAVGEM is usually progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Has a broad low that rounds the corner off GA/SC and than rapidly deepens, quicker than the GFS, but still shows a lot of potential, need Allens maps to update to get better details. Let's face it, we need the Euro to show this, or something close. The NAVGEM shows a triple phaser, My cmc maps aren't loading on SV so I'm not sure what's up. It sounds like the gfs isn't on an island by itself so that's at least encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Can't believe I am staying up for the GEFS, I know it's not going to be anything like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'll take the euro even showing close for horseshoes. Still could be a solid Dr No though. Good chance it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z GFS snow accumulations. Darn. Only a paltry 14" inches for Kernersville.. seriously, why post this crap? This obviously an outlier among the most recent model runs (barring a major enlightenment by the doc in an hour). Can we just hold off with the armageddon snow totals until we have a little more consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The awful CMC maps I'm looking at at least appear to hammer the western half of NC. Not sure about more eastern or southern areas. Better maps will be out soon, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My cmc maps aren't loading on SV so I'm not sure what's up. It sounds like the gfs isn't on an island by itself so that's at least encouraging. Well all the models have been ticking SE with this storm, but I do feel this will be a miller b, which is never good for us, will see, at least something to track for a couple days, winters last hurrah. Hard to believe that Boston will get a 2-4" tomorrow, 8-10" on Wednesday and than 12"+ with this potential event next weekend, all in the span of 7 days. I am moving to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That run destroyed NC folks....what the heck? Hopefully this trends colder...would love more snow here if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Darn. Only a paltry 14" inches for Kernersville.. seriously, why post this crap? This obviously an outlier among the most recent model runs (barring a major enlightenment by the doc in an hour). Can we just hold off with the armageddon snow totals until we have a little more consensus? just for fun man. chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well the gefs really isn't too bad and shows some support for the op. It's warmer but track appears to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GEFS mean does support the Op, somewhat, shows SLP right over Myrtle, probably icey with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GEFS mean does support the Op, somewhat, shows SLP right over Myrtle, probably icey with that look. also noting that the mean is further south than the mean of the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 also noting that the mean is further south than the mean of the 18z. Yep! Pretty crazy support, love the blocking showing up on the GEFS, that's got to be there or we are toast, want that stronger though on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 0z GFS was great, but I wouldn't expect it to pan out. With the offshore Southeast ridge (-PNA pattern), I think the model is digging the energy far too south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 0z GFS was great, but I wouldn't expect it to pan out. With the offshore Southeast ridge (-PNA pattern), I think the model is digging the energy far too south.Verbatim with that blocking showing up it really has nowhere else to go as far as I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The 0z GFS was great, but I wouldn't expect it to pan out. With the offshore Southeast ridge (-PNA pattern), I think the model is digging the energy far too south. I agree with you, with a -PNA this would not dig that far south, but if you look at my post above we do get good ridging in the west, that is a must, we have to have everything perfect. So even if it's technical a -PNA we do have nice west coast ridging, we lose that, it's north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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