Brick Tamland Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WxSouth got the last event right when the models were flip flopping. It might not have been quite as big when it came to the totals as he said, but it wasn't far off and he was right with how the system would evolve and the models missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Boy things can sure change over 12 hrs?!! He flops like a fish. This morning he tweeted about the storm not being able to cut through the monster high and looking like his doodle maps.?! I'm assuming that would have to happen to get snow where he is talking about now. CAD signal still showing, just not as cold 35-40. Can def trend colder This is one reason JB gets blamed for missed forecasts when he is really misquoted. His tweet absolutely did not say that storm would be unable to cut through the high. As for his doodles I took it to mean it would be the type storm he fantasized about as a kid. Others share your thoughts as well... Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 35m Arctic high stretching Dakatos to New England, daring the Negative titled trough to send a low into it. Its like maps I doodled in class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is one reason JB gets blamed for missed forecasts when he is really misquoted. His tweet absolutely did not say that storm would be unable to cut through the high. As for his doodles I took it to mean it would be the type storm he fantasized about as a kid. So...what is your interpretation of his tweet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So...what is your interpretation of his tweet? My interpretation is, he didn't make any statement at all on whether the low would or would not attempt to move into the high. It was just a comment on the positions. Similar to, that cold air is sitting just north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 um, yall should look at the 18z. it's colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 and back to where we were lastnight LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My interpretation is, he didn't make any statement at all on whether the low would or would not attempt to move into the high. It was just a comment on the positions. Similar to, that cold air is sitting just north of us. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Today, I looked at the strongest that the center of each CAD'ing high was (most centered in/near the NE US) just before or near the start of the ZR for 29 ATL major ZR's since the late 1800's. Here they are in descending order in mb's: 1048, 1947, 1047, 1045, 1045, 1042, 1042, 1040, 1040, 1039, 1038, 1038, 1038, 1038, 1037, 1037, 1036, 1035, 1035, 1034, 1034, 1034, 1033, 1031, 1031, 1030, 1029, 1027, 1027 Median 1037; Avg.: 1037; Mode 1038 followed by 1034; highest concentration 1034-8 So, most major ATL ZR CAD highs (69%) are actually weaker than 1040 mb at their strongest, which many people likely don't realize. More are actually within the narrow 1034-8 range than 1040+. Also, about as many are within the 1027-34 range as 1040+. Edit: Interestingly, I found no correlation between strength of high and how bad each ZR was in ATL!! This surprised me. ***Edit #2: That being said, I assume that the # of NE highs near 1027-34 far outnumbers the # at 1040-1048. So, the % of 1040-48 highs producing a major ZR at ATL is likely a good bit higher than that for 1027-34, which would be intuitive. wow that is very interesting - and i guess i was incorrect in my post lol. maybe a lot has to do with the optimal set up of the hp to funnel the cold air down. it just seemed from memory that 1034 or 1035 didnt really do it around here (but that was based on my memory the last 10 or so years, the last biggie being 2005) even more surprising is the strength didnt lead to a bigger storm (which leads me to think placement of hp more important than how strong) edited to add: Larry, I'd been reading NEGa's ideas about how deep the cad gets in his yard by pressure in the highs, with interest. I'd not paid attention to what pressure it takes to push one into here. I've gone more by where it's freezing. If I'm 34, the Lookout's most likely getting freezing rain. If La Grange, is 34 then I might be getting freezing rain. Now I'm curious if the pressure has less to do with it, at first, than the placement, and wind strength. Some time's they just push on through here, against the waa, and sometimes I stay on the edge. I just assumed the stronger high, had the stronger winds, but I guess not necessarily make it, or break it colder. T lol i think placement is probably more important after looking at his stats. i just seems like i remember a lot of 1035s or so ending in 33 and rain here the last 5 years or so with the cads (or lack thereof). i do think you are right with the winds - we really need a fresh supply of cold air (ie ne winds funneling it down). the last couple of significant ice events i recall all had a noticeable ne winds prior to the start of the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 18z gfs still looks wonky to me. Looks like it wants to suppress the surface low then all of a sudden one shows up and heads towards the lakes. Soon after, another area of low pressure show up around Savannah, Ga and moves to Wilmington three hours later. Anyone ever seen a miller b have one low in the Great Lakes/Ohio valley region and transfer the low to Savannah, Ga? Pretty laughable. Still shows a good CAD signature. I think this one is far from over. I think we will see at least one run with a nice miller A that will probably gives us weenies enough hope to stay interested all week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 um, yall should look at the 18z. it's colder It looks to me like the surface low should continue to head east instead of running toward the Lakes, based on H5. It looks like it should initiate the transfer farther south and east than it eventually does. I have no idea what surface temps are, but given the location and strength of the high, there should be plenty of ice by the time any changeover occurs. If the upper level features are exactly correct, which I doubt, a colder trend would be favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 18z gfs still looks wonky to me. Looks like it wants to suppress the surface low then all of a sudden one shows up and heads towards the lakes. Soon after, another area of low pressure show up around Savannah, Ga and moves to Wilmington three hours later. Anyone ever seen a miller b have one low in the Great Lakes/Ohio valley region and transfer the low to Savannah, Ga? Pretty laughable. Still shows a good CAD signature. I think this one is far from over. I think we will see at least one run with a nice miller A that will probably gives us weenies enough hope to stay interested all week! If the storm keeps winding up too far west, we won't get a good Miller A run. We need it to remain less amped for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ok, Mr. It will be warm The models folks rely on are proving unfathomable. Changing from run to run. What do we look too when models are confusing? Climo. What does Climo say? Well, is it winter? Then it is more likely to be cold than warm...the last few years not withstanding, lol. What has it been doing lately. Since March, the highs have come down and the water run underneath. Has anything happened to stop that general motion? Don't know, but don't think so. So...I'm not looking for warm, and I'm betting, if you are betting, you don't either I mean we've got arctic waves, and split flows, it's the dead of winter, anything goes....... but warmth...no warmth allowed. T I hear you, but the models have settled their variability down somewhat and mostly show a fairly stable zonal-type pattern. Yeah, it's a split flow...people keep saying that as though that's some sort of magic winter storm recipe...but if the mean storm track is through the center of the nation as opposed to the southern tier, which it looks like it predominately will be, then that makes me think about my board name...a lot. Good thing is, we're in early Feb. But we need to start seeing some decent signs of something else soon, or we're going to be in mid-Feb. And a cold shot in March most likely won't be nearly as cold as one in mid-Feb, so it'll be even harder to get snow. I don't think winter is over, but I'd like to see the models agree with me soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It looks to me like the surface low should continue to head east instead of running toward the Lakes, based on H5. It looks like it should initiate the transfer farther south and east than it eventually does. I have no idea what surface temps are, but given the location and strength of the high, there should be plenty of ice by the time any changeover occurs. If the upper level features are exactly correct, which I doubt, a colder trend would be favored. i agree. 850-1000mb thickness was below 0, but sfc temps were above? GFS is weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Van Denton seems to think this is one to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I hear you, but the models have settled their variability down somewhat and mostly show a fairly stable zonal-type pattern. Yeah, it's a split flow...people keep saying that as though that's some sort of magic winter storm recipe...but if the mean storm track is through the center of the nation as opposed to the southern tier, which it looks like it predominately will be, then that makes me think about my board name...a lot. Good thing is, we're in early Feb. But we need to start seeing some decent signs of something else soon, or we're going to be in mid-Feb. And a cold shot in March most likely won't be nearly as cold as one in mid-Feb, so it'll be even harder to get snow. I don't think winter is over, but I'd like to see the models agree with me soon. Don't worry; Marvelous March will save us if we can dodge the warm soil temperatures, warm boundary layer temperatures, high March sun angle, and saturated soil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 wow that is very interesting - and i guess i was incorrect in my post lol. maybe a lot has to do with the optimal set up of the hp to funnel the cold air down. it just seemed from memory that 1034 or 1035 didnt really do it around here (but that was based on my memory the last 10 or so years, the last biggie being 2005) even more surprising is the strength didnt lead to a bigger storm (which leads me to think placement of hp more important than how strong) edited to add: lol i think placement is probably more important after looking at his stats. i just seems like i remember a lot of 1035s or so ending in 33 and rain here the last 5 years or so with the cads (or lack thereof). i do think you are right with the winds - we really need a fresh supply of cold air (ie ne winds funneling it down). the last couple of significant ice events i recall all had a noticeable ne winds prior to the start of the precip However, because there are likely a good many more 1035ish mb NE highs than 1040ish mb NE highs, keep in mind that this would mean there are a good many more 1035 highs that don't produce a major ATL ZR vs. the number of 1040 highs that don't produce a major ATL ZR. So, that would mean that any given 1040ish high would have a better chance to produce a major ZR at ATL than any given 1035 mb high. Does that make sense? If I somehow had some way to quantify the # of 1040 highs vs. 1035 within a reasonable amount of time, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But, that doesn't seem possible. However, I'm quite confident that there are a good many more 1035ish highs. Since 2000, here are the four major ZR's in the ATL area: 1/22-23/2000: 1027 mb high 1/28-30/2000: 1038 mb high 1/28-9/2005: 1047 mb high 12/14-5/2005: 1040 mb high It just so happened that 1/28-29/2005's high was 1047 at its center up to the NE when it was at its strongest, which means that high is tied for the 2nd strongest next to the 1048 from a Feb.,1908 ZR. But look at how weak was 1/22-23/2000's high: only 1027, which is tied for the weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Upon closer examination, the low that forms is called a "longhorn low" it's caused by diabatic heating off the ocean and enhanced in the right entrance of the jet streak. The 18z has the let over the coast of TX and digs and the low follows the right entrance. The thing is, when the low gets strong enough it travels to the WAA so it moves to the left entrance of the let streak. This suppresses the low and a new low off the coast of GA forms as the right entrance is over the ocean. then this feature relies on the upper level features more because of the ocean sfs thermal uniformity. IF the trough can dig more then the entire track will shift east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GEFS mean ticks SE too, hopefully it keeps on ticking... Also, some blocking trying to develop over which is helping to suppress and lock in the high, interesting, we need a miracle still, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 18z GEFS mean ticks SE too, hopefully it keeps on ticking... Also, some blocking trying to develop over which is helping to suppress and lock in the high, interesting, we need a miracle still, but... Look at the diif probable locations for the low to be. there's still alot of spread. hopefully we get at least a ice storm outta this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Don't worry; Marvelous March will save us if we can dodge the warm soil temperatures, warm boundary layer temperatures, high March sun angle, and saturated soil. Awesome April FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 However, because there are likely a good many more 1035ish mb NE highs than 1040ish mb NE highs, keep in mind that this would mean there are a good many more 1035 highs that don't produce a major ATL ZR vs. the number of 1040 highs that don't produce a major ATL ZR. So, that would mean that any given 1040ish high would have a better chance to produce a major ZR at ATL than any given 1035 mb high. Does that make sense? If I somehow had some way to quantify the # of 1040 highs vs. 1035 within a reasonable amount of time, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But, that doesn't seem possible. However, I'm quite confident that there are a good many more 1035ish highs. Since 2000, here are the four major ZR's in the ATL area: 1/22-23/2000: 1027 mb high 1/28-30/2000: 1038 mb high 1/28-9/2005: 1047 mb high 12/14-5/2005: 1040 mb high It just so happened that 1/28-29/2005's high was 1047 at its center up to the NE when it was at its strongest, which means that high is tied for the 2nd strongest next to the 1048 from a Feb.,1908 ZR. But look at how weak was 1/22-23/2000's high: only 1027, which is tied for the weakest. actually it does make sense lol. i was probably thinking of the two you list cos they were such super cads i would think even a bad placed 1047 was send the ice down to ga lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WxSouth just said on facebook that the models are basicaly wrong and there could still be a big storm next weekend into next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WxSouth just said on facebook that the models are basicaly wrong and there could still be a big storm next weekend into next Monday. Yeah, but he didn't say where that big storm could be? My guess is NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, but he didn't say where that big storm could be? My guess is NE yea, sigma values are lowering as we get closer. we can still hope for a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 actually it does make sense lol. i was probably thinking of the two you list cos they were such super cads i would think even a bad placed 1047 was send the ice down to ga lol Well, there that is in Larry's stats since 00. The only one of consequence here was 05. The 1047 got in here and gave me zr with an ending of a nice sleet. That tells me it was actually getting stronger as the zr was ending. 2000, don't know which one, but I think the later one, was a tree topper here, at 1038. I'd try to draw a parallel with the pressure, for getting in here, but I can't figure placement, if one in the plains, and one in Canada, can do the job, then maybe placement is more complicated. Mostly, I think you are right in the need for reinforcement with fresh cold air. I remember the one in the early 80's, or late 70's, a Miller A, that rained torrents all night, then 4am, or so, went over to sleet, inches of sleet. I remember Guy Sharp saying the cad had been reinforced unexpectedly, lol. A freshened ne wind T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yea, sigma values are lowering as we get closer. we can still hope for a miracle I still think we have a good shot at Ice or mixed bag next weekend? but it's still a long ways off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I still think we have a good shot at Ice or mixed bag next weekend? but it's still a long ways off! true The big question is what changeovers occur, but too early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, but he didn't say where that big storm could be? My guess is NE Agreed, a big storm next weekend is very likely, probably NoVA up through the NE, front end snow/frzn for us is a possibility, especially for the foothills/mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He said the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Interesting comparing PDII versus upcoming system... ---PDII 500MB map--- ---18z GFS--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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