NEGa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Quick question guys, when you speak of "CAD favored areas" are you including the CAD favored areas of Georgia in this statement? Speaking generally, most of the time the hp needs to be at least 1038-1040 (ESP over 1040) for the cad to push far enough se to get ga in the action. Granted it can depend on where it set ups etc but 1035 or weaker usually won't get the air colder than 32/33 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I agree, somebody not much farther northeast would get absolutely crushed.Like GSP area ? If there was a solid snow over from VA north, would that help produce for Atlanta with a weaker 1035 high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Speaking generally, most of the time the hp needs to be at least 1038-1040 (ESP over 1040) for the cad to push far enough se to get ga in the action. Granted it can depend on where it set ups etc but 1035 or weaker usually won't get the air colder than 32/33 or so Well, being that it was modeled at 1040 it would be strong enough. Obviously depending on where it set up at. I personally don't care for a major ice storm here. It causes so many issues. Don't get me wrong, I think all of us weenies like to see Mother Nature flex her muscle every now and then but it's not fun when it drills you personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Like GSP area ? If there was a solid snow over from VA north, would that help produce for Atlanta with a weaker 1035 high? you are a good bit farther ne than atl - so would be in a better position with a slightly weaker high i would think. there ahve been times when places in sc can get just under freezing, while ga is the infamous 33 and rain lol hopefully there will be decent snow cover and if so, then the air mass might not moderate as much and lead to a few degrees lower temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z Goofus off and running... through 120 I think we're gonna see something different this run, temp wise especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even though recent GFS and Euro runs have spared ATL and ATL may luck out and avoid this huge mess, I'd be extra wary about them getting colder because of climo as the current neutral negative ENSO has been associated with the largest % of winters of any ENSO phase by far having a major ZR or IP in ATL. It is close to a whopping 50% vs the overall for all ENSO phases closer to only 23%! The most common time is late January though 2/8 would be close enough for concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z Goofus off and running... through 120 I think we're gonna see something different this run, temp wise especially. Going to see a cutoff ULL and big HP overhead. 850mb temps look too warm to me with the PV sitting over E Canada and HP all over the place. Should see snow/ice breaking out over NC/VA by 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Going to see a cutoff ULL and big HP overhead.More snow possible? What does this mean? Lower QPF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking like a southern style Miller B as the trough axis is already well negative by the time it reaches the Miss River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well we don't want it cutting west of TN, that won't get it done, still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 More snow possible? What does this mean? Lower QPF ? Well looks like the GFS is going to continue to amp it up well west and stall it... ain't gonna happen. Not with the PV south of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Pretty big shift NW with the 850 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Chicago area blizzard on the 12z GFS. No frozen precip for nc, sc or, ga through 177 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah Chicago gets crushed. It really looks off though to me. I would bet the Euro has something completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS has temps in the mid-70's for south half of GA/SC and SE-NC next Sunday, if it ain't going to ice/snow might as well be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Beast of a storm, someone is going to get quiet a winter storm for someone…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That's a really big swing in one run! Maybe euro is on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That's a really big swing in one run! Maybe euro is on to something? This doesn't look like the Euro. The euro has two storms rolling through, one day 6/7 and another day 7/8, first tracks up the Apps through the MA, 2nd one is a little farther SE, but still not snowy for us. It doesn't wrap up the h5 low into a double/triple contour cutoff like the GFS. Neither does the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Interesting run of the GFS. If the Euro shows a similar look at 12z, then we can downplay the threat with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One thing for sure...still plenty of rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well looks like the GFS is going to continue to amp it up well west and stall it... ain't gonna happen. Not with the PV south of Greenland. Others share your thoughts as well... Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 35m Arctic high stretching Dakatos to New England, daring the Negative titled trough to send a low into it. Its like maps I doodled in class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Public Tweet and Map from Bastardi this morning: Subscribers should listen to Joe's thoughts behind this map: Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) 2//14, 7:30 An "American Pie"(February made me shiver) final forecast from CFSV2 mimics weatherbell.com from 10 days ago pic.twitter.com/QiNveW1UPx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Obviously a long way to go and a number of solutions on the table, but if I had a nickel for every time somebody says that a storm can't cut into a block or high pressure ridge or confluence zone or whatever and then the storm actually did, I'd have a lot of nickels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Obviously a long way to go and a number of solutions on the table, but if I had a nickel for every time somebody says that a storm can't cut into a block or high pressure ridge or confluence zone or whatever and then the storm actually did, I'd have a lot of nickels. Well there is just a little spread when you compare the OP v/s the Ens mean though The ENS mean takes the primary up the App's and transfers right over us as you can see below, I think a lot of people would see some ice in this scenario, still 7days away though. Looked quickly at the CMC, nothing like the GFS, I need to look at it further, not sure what it's even doing. --12z OP-- ---12z GEFS Mean--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ha! Just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also, when you compare the 12z GEFS mean to the 0z GEFS mean it's keeps ticking south, interesting... ---0z GEFS Mean from last night--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just like 500 miles difference between the operational and the ensembles. No big deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just like 500 miles difference between the operational and the ensembles. No big deal... This is the 12z GEFS from yesterday, primary over the lakes and is transferring just south of NYC. Today is the primary up the Apps, transferring over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sure would be nice to get a solution like P005. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/f168.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Overnight AFD from KGSP Monitor for the Higher Terrain of NC Mountains. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC915 AM EST SUN FEB 2 2014.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 145 AM EST SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ONTHURSDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF LIFTING TO OUR NORTH AS THE UPPERPATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL. OVER THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS...UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SECONUS AS A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE WESTERNCONUS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER TROF APPROACHING THEFCST AREA BY EARLY SUN WHICH IS DAY 7.AT THE SFC...A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WRT THE EVOLUTIONOF THE SFC PATTERN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TOREMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU THURS WITH SOME SORT OF WEDGE PATTERNBEGINNING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY. THE MODELSTHEN GENERATE A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SAT AND TRACK ITNE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW ANDMOVING IT NE COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECWMF. WITH THE UNCERTAINTYREMAINING THIS FAR OUT ON DAYS 6 AND 7...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADETO THE SENSIBLE FCST. PERIODS OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET...AND FRZ RAINWERE INCLUDED IN THE FCST GRIDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOSTLYRAIN OVER THE REST OF THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TOTRY AND PINPOINT EXACT DURATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF FROZEN PRECIP...SOMECOMBINATION OF P-TYPES LOOKS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHERTERRAIN. TEMPS WILL START JUST BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS REMAININGBELOW CLIMO THRU THE PERIOD AND LOWS LIKELY WARMING ABOVE CLIMO BYTHE WEEKEND.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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