BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per 0z GFS 1.74qpf falls here with 850's at it's warmest -0.9 and 2mT warmest -4.2 WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per 0z GFS 1.74qpf falls here with 850's at it's warmest -0.9 and 2mT warmest -4.2 WOW!!! It more than likely a snow to sleet to freezing rain back to snow at end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It more than likely a snow to sleet to freezing rain back to snow at end sounds good to me. but it's a long ways to go!!! it'll change many times before Friday. and would like to see the Euro show up much colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 sounds good to me. but it's a long ways to go!!! it'll change many times before Friday. and would like to see the Euro show up much colder... Me 2 buddy. Long ways to go but if this were to verify somewhere someone on this board is going to be in shock as to what can happen with the type of set-up this is showing. I love winter and all the weather types that comes with it but sometimes even a good thing can be too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 per 0z GFS 1.74qpf falls here with 850's at it's warmest -0.9 and 2mT warmest -4.2 WOW!!! GFS also show 12 plus inches of snow for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wtf is this though; legit? Is this a weird Miller B or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ensemble mean agrees with the OP GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Tonight's Euro still nowhere near as impressive with the cold air tap...but still has a ton of moisture coming through. Infact, the model run has some really impressive precip totals over the next week...parts of Alabama could see 5 1/2 inches QPF and widespread 2-4 inch QPF from New Orleans to DC...over a span of 3 separate systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks, Robert!! I've been hoping those split flow looks would become real. I'll take a split flow over everything, even if it brings ice....because after the ice it'll bring something else Go split flow! And go wave Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Incredible how much the epo has helped us this year, without it we would've torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z GFS rolling in as we speak and it continues to look very impressive, snow breaking out over Western North Carolina by 144 with a fairly quick transition to ice shortly after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Great to wake up & see Robert posting some pbp last night.....thought I was having a flashback. As Marion said the 6Z GSF looks interesting & to my untrained eyes @ hr 147 it has heavy snow in the central & northern mnts with lighter amounts over the northern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for stopping by, Robert. I hope you have many more reasons to stop by over the rest of the winter. The 0z GFS would be a devastating ice storm for many. If it is close to reality, it would trend colder, possibly enough to allow more sleet to fall, which would be good. The Miller B transfer would probably take place farther east too. Not really impressed with the Euro or the CMC. Still more questions than answers. The rest of the 0z run looked awful for winter weather prospects. The 6z looked a little bit better. The indexes still look terrible though. I wish we could get a snowier pattern to set up before Feb is out, but there are no signs of it yet...although the 6z did have a fantasy snow for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, just viewed the rest of the run. Wow. This went like I told my colleague earlier today, a total 3 part storm...basically combine 2005 with March 2009 and wham. For NC anyway . I'd say that big high damming down has followed the synoptic rule book to a tee. Watch for wholesale changes on Euro soon. That key is just how super charged the Arctic wave is coming across the Pole. This could evolve into a major Southeast Winter storm, long lived. Rings a bell for me to something along the lines of 2009, with days of rain ahead of a major snowstorm. I can do without any ice, and that 1040 high staying in place and driving northeast winds down here is dangerous looking all the way to near Atlanta. The models never capture true damming right, and this one is a reinforcing, growing CAD shown on GFS atleast. That western system closes off into bowling ball cutoff....cutting through mid South. The Euro was further south, but not as closed. This could easily trend into an incredible Winter storm for many folks, front end, back end and some will be non stop Winter precip. Nightmare to forecasters. But the 5H trends have shown this a while now. I"d bet this evolves into a monster of some type. Thanks for your input...I miss seeing your discussions around here. I know you have your own business and I hope it's doing good. I like to "lean" on your advice and experience.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only bad thing is, I don't like the Euro not on board! It's not even close to being cold enough for Ice.... And CMC not on board either.. Much cause for concern if you want wintery weather! IMO... hopefully at 12z Euro and CMC will at least start trending colder, we'll soon see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for stopping by, Robert. I hope you have many more reasons to stop by over the rest of the winter. The 0z GFS would be a devastating ice storm for many. If it is close to reality, it would trend colder, possibly enough to allow more sleet to fall, which would be good. The Miller B transfer would probably take place farther east too. Not really impressed with the Euro or the CMC. Still more questions than answers. The rest of the 0z run looked awful for winter weather prospects. The 6z looked a little bit better. The indexes still look terrible though. I wish we could get a snowier pattern to set up before Feb is out, but there are no signs of it yet...although the 6z did have a fantasy snow for NC. Cold Rain, have the indices looked favorable much at all this winter?? We've had a very cold January....not sure what the indexes showed but I don't they were particularly great. I never really look much beyond 5 days for the indexes anyway positive OR negative. I guess they can show trends but the actually day to day weather hasn't been influenced greatly. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you post these and enjoy reading what you have to say. Just seems the indices have been showing poor most of the winter but really hasn't produced super bad results here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, just viewed the rest of the run. Wow. This went like I told my colleague earlier today, a total 3 part storm...basically combine 2005 with March 2009 and wham. For NC anyway . I'd say that big high damming down has followed the synoptic rule book to a tee. Watch for wholesale changes on Euro soon. That key is just how super charged the Arctic wave is coming across the Pole. This could evolve into a major Southeast Winter storm, long lived. Rings a bell for me to something along the lines of 2009, with days of rain ahead of a major snowstorm. I can do without any ice, and that 1040 high staying in place and driving northeast winds down here is dangerous looking all the way to near Atlanta. The models never capture true damming right, and this one is a reinforcing, growing CAD shown on GFS atleast. That western system closes off into bowling ball cutoff....cutting through mid South. The Euro was further south, but not as closed. This could easily trend into an incredible Winter storm for many folks, front end, back end and some will be non stop Winter precip. Nightmare to forecasters. But the 5H trends have shown this a while now. I"d bet this evolves into a monster of some type. well it sounds encouraging from Robert, GSP doesn't seem to be jumping on the wagon yet, guess we're to far out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only bad thing is, I don't like the Euro not on board! It's not even close to being cold enough for Ice.... And CMC not on board either.. Much cause for concern if you want wintery weather! IMO... hopefully at 12z Euro and CMC will at least start trending colder, we'll soon see.the cmc is the coldest model. It really has a weak storm tho. Mostly snow showers for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Only bad thing is, I don't like the Euro not on board! It's not even close to being cold enough for Ice.... And CMC not on board either.. Much cause for concern if you want wintery weather! IMO... hopefully at 12z Euro and CMC will at least start trending colder, we'll soon see. Robert states that the Euro will start to show changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Cold Rain, have the indices looked favorable much at all this winter?? We've had a very cold January....not sure what the indexes showed but I don't they were particularly great. I never really look much beyond 5 days for the indexes anyway positive OR negative. I guess they can show trends but the actually day to day weather hasn't been influenced greatly. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you post these and enjoy reading what you have to say. Just seems the indices have been showing poor most of the winter but really hasn't produced super bad results here.... You're exactly right. I just comment on it just because, mostly, and because it helps me to notice trends. This winter is going to make an interesting study, because if you look just at the indexes that we all usually focus on, the ones I post about, you would think winter has sucked and been mostly warm. But like you said, that's far from the case. That said though, I'd still like to see the NAO and PNA show signs of turning around. Even though we've been cold without it, we have not been in a favorable winter weather pattern. We can still get a good winter storm with good timing, and a split flow increases those odds somewhat.But you're right, there has been so much variability that it's really not of very much value to look more than a few days out. Still, I'm a big and I always feel better when I see fantasy cold and snowstorms on the D+10 GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Cold Rain, have the indices looked favorable much at all this winter?? We've had a very cold January....not sure what the indexes showed but I don't they were particularly great. I never really look much beyond 5 days for the indexes anyway positive OR negative. I guess they can show trends but the actually day to day weather hasn't been influenced greatly. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad you post these and enjoy reading what you have to say. Just seems the indices have been showing poor most of the winter but really hasn't produced super bad results here.... Well for most of the month of January, we have had a --AO, Neutral to very weakly negative NAO that went positive near the end of the month, and a +PNA for most of the month. December we had a - PNA, ++AO, and a +NAO. Most of the SE was +4-+10. So I'll say the indices did help in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I see a fun (and possibly frustrating) week ahead. With a mixed bag type of storm, the models can fool us inexperienced weather hobbyists. Snow maps can be thrown out the window. It's going to be very important to listen very carefully to the mets on here and on the NWS discussions. Also, some of the experienced members on here like Lookout, stormsfury and others are very knowledgeable about these type of systems. I see lots of soundings and skew-t diagrams in our future this week. Traditionally, the surface temperatures will come in colder, but you can never overpower a warm nose. Trying to figure out snow vs sleet vs freezing rain and when changeovers will happen will drive you crazy. Get ready for a wild ride and be ready to learn something about these types of winter systems. Let's enjoy the ride and hope that there is not a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the more uniquely modeled solutions I've seen on the 0z and 6z GFS. This thing has the potential to really be historic for someone. That double barrel low is not your everyday run of the mill, Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Brandon called it a few days ago, the GFS is looking really close to PDII. Granted this is 7 days out but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haven't looked at soundings yet, but most of the time when you have a miller B transferring energy to the coast like the 0z is showing, you end up with a 700-800mb warm layer. Even if 850's and below support snow, you can end up with mostly a sleet event. Not saying that will happen, but it is certainly something to consider. As we all know, Miller A's do not have this warm layer, if you are on the northwest side of the storm. I am sure that most of us in the favored areas are rooting for the cold air damming to be deep enough to prevent a major ice storm. Getting that energy to transfer south of our latitude will be a tall order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For the Atlanta metro a miller b consistently modeled would be a death knell for winter weather in out area. That would spell 35-32.1 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For the Atlanta metro a miller b consistently modeled would be a death knell for winter weather in out area. That would spell 35-32.1 and rain. Yep, which would be fine with me. But someone would be crushed. As modeled it's not you every day Miller B. Not saying we get much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Haven't looked at soundings yet, but most of the time when you have a miller B transferring energy to the coast like the 0z is showing, you end up with a 700-800mb warm layer. Even if 850's and below support snow, you can end up with mostly a sleet event. Not saying that will happen, but it is certainly something to consider. As we all know, Miller A's do not have this warm layer, if you are on the northwest side of the storm. I am sure that most of us in the favored areas are rooting for the cold air damming to be deep enough to prevent a major ice storm. Getting that energy to transfer south of our latitude will be a tall order. Saving grace would be if it cuts off and heads south. Getting a good cutoff though is like playing roulette, you never know where it will end up been screwed many of times with just a cold rain....but those also didn't have much cooler air to funnel to help create a cold enough core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That high pressure on the 12z NAM coming into Montana late in the run is stronger this round than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yep, which would be fine with me. But someone would be crushed. As modeled it's not you every day Miller B. Not saying we get much of anything. I agree, somebody not much farther northeast would get absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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