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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II


buckeyefan1

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lol man if it keeps trending this way all of NC is going to be in business. My worry is the timing. If it was like the Euro and had stalled our S/W out west delaying it by about 24 hours we would be in business. As it stands now we have to hope the cold air filters in faster and this gets wetter for longer. It's a lot to hope for. 

 

Not sure WTF happened but everything looked so different early on in the GFS run, the southern piece of energy was much stronger and able to develop a stronger low.

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Not sure WTF happened but everything looked so different early on in the GFS run, the southern piece of energy was much stronger and able to develop a stronger low.

 

I think Franklin has the right of it. It is just now being able to sample both pieces of energy. NAM isn't far off with it's final solution @84 looking at 5h. Given how horrible it is in that time frame it's probably pushing that energy too far east that's diving down. If that's the case...well we might have something to root for. 

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Hmm.. that's an encouraging trend there.  Still needs to trend slower with that s/w to keep it from being swept up with the polar front and allow the HP to push in ahead of it. Then it'll have the room to go neutral and really go to work with a low bombing out over the gulf.   :D

 

KA9yVAB.gif

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Hmm.. that's an encouraging trend there.  Still needs to trend slower with that s/w to keep it from being swept up with the polar front. Then it'll have the room to go neutral and really go to work with a low bombing out over the gulf.   :D

 

At some point don't we have to beat the system and just get lucky?  :hurrbear:

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LOL at the GFS, almost back to what the Euro showed the other night when the NC/VA got a big winter storm.  TN looks to get some good snow on this run.

 

It ain't over until it's over. Wonder if things are so complicated now with the pattern we are in that the models are just having a hard time pinpointing things more than 48 hours out.

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Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place.  There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf.  

 

What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going.  The slower the better.

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Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place.  There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf.  

 

What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going.  The slower the better.

 

Good points, yeah it seems the only way this would work for us over here would be for the northern stream to dig and cut off...minor miracle scenario maybe

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Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place.  There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf.  

 

What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going.  The slower the better.

 

I swear I've heard this before!!  Deja vu'!! :lmao:

 

12Z looks like it forms another one of those double barrell lows that killed us in December.  No cold air, even with a gulf low on the right track.  It's probably six and half dozen of another.  Either way, cutter or gulf low, probably a bunch of rain for the SE. 

 

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Hope things change, but for now the word for the likely outcome is north of a line from Dallas TX to DC.

The word came from Joe Bastardi viaTwitter

Plenty of Gulf Action but the critical temperature profile boundary going back north of us as each of the storms come in.

Someone's else commented hopes of a cutoff might be our salvation in this pattern.

.

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Over all this run of the GFS doesn't look bad. Kind of puts these pieces of energy on repeat. It's close to something around 140-160 then doesn't look to far off from the Euro at 192 but the low just goes *POOF* at 204. 

 

Good look in the longer range.  Decent blocking and a strong PV over SE Canada.  Potential lingering in the SW.

 

uKNuI2A.gif

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Well since the models still don't have the SR or LR figured out (surprise) does anyone want to start a storm thread or do we still want to discuss specifics in a winter pattern thread?

My vote is no storm thread until within 48 to 72 hours of an event.

May the more southern trend score a coup. Not likely but would be nice.

As of now, we are still only discussing potential.

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