griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Yep, UKMet has been on this suppressed train the last few runs, now GFS hops on...been a crazy model ride with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 lol man if it keeps trending this way all of NC is going to be in business. My worry is the timing. If it was like the Euro and had stalled our S/W out west delaying it by about 24 hours we would be in business. As it stands now we have to hope the cold air filters in faster and this gets wetter for longer. It's a lot to hope for. Not sure WTF happened but everything looked so different early on in the GFS run, the southern piece of energy was much stronger and able to develop a stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Not sure WTF happened but everything looked so different early on in the GFS run, the southern piece of energy was much stronger and able to develop a stronger low. I think Franklin has the right of it. It is just now being able to sample both pieces of energy. NAM isn't far off with it's final solution @84 looking at 5h. Given how horrible it is in that time frame it's probably pushing that energy too far east that's diving down. If that's the case...well we might have something to root for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hmm.. that's an encouraging trend there. Still needs to trend slower with that s/w to keep it from being swept up with the polar front and allow the HP to push in ahead of it. Then it'll have the room to go neutral and really go to work with a low bombing out over the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Looking at SFC maps verbatim GFS is still too warm for all of NC outside of a small sliver on the northern fringes of central NC at the VA border where frozen liquid falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 UKie looks even more suppressed, although I don't have the 96 panel yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hmm.. that's an encouraging trend there. Still needs to trend slower with that s/w to keep it from being swept up with the polar front. Then it'll have the room to go neutral and really go to work with a low bombing out over the gulf. At some point don't we have to beat the system and just get lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 This is where the lack of a -NAO really shows. You have nice high pressure move into the lakes Tues night, but heights (and thus temps) are allowed to climb along the east coast without a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 UKie looks even more suppressed, although I don't have the 96 panel yet... FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 LOL at the GFS, almost back to what the Euro showed the other night when the NC/VA got a big winter storm. TN looks to get some good snow on this run. It ain't over until it's over. Wonder if things are so complicated now with the pattern we are in that the models are just having a hard time pinpointing things more than 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place. There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf. What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going. The slower the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place. There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf. What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going. The slower the better. Good points, yeah it seems the only way this would work for us over here would be for the northern stream to dig and cut off...minor miracle scenario maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Actually, most of the GEFS members have a gulf low in place. There's just a lot of confusion over how the energy is ejected eastward, either mostly along the polar front, or separates and forms a new primary low in the gulf, or a blend with a primary up to the midwest/TN valley with another low in the gulf. What we want to see is that southern piece of energy separate quickly enough to slow down, let the polar low to die off quickly and gulf low get going. The slower the better. I swear I've heard this before!! Deja vu'!! 12Z looks like it forms another one of those double barrell lows that killed us in December. No cold air, even with a gulf low on the right track. It's probably six and half dozen of another. Either way, cutter or gulf low, probably a bunch of rain for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hope things change, but for now the word for the likely outcome is north of a line from Dallas TX to DC. The word came from Joe Bastardi viaTwitter Plenty of Gulf Action but the critical temperature profile boundary going back north of us as each of the storms come in. Someone's else commented hopes of a cutoff might be our salvation in this pattern. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Hope things change, but for now the word for the likely outcome is north of a line from Dallas TX to DC. Yep I saw that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Over all this run of the GFS doesn't look bad. Kind of puts these pieces of energy on repeat. It's close to something around 140-160 then doesn't look to far off from the Euro at 192 but the low just goes *POOF* at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM much weaker and SE, almost misses the NE, jackpots NY/NJ, misses NC but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 GGEM much weaker and SE, almost misses the NE, jackpots NY/NJ, misses NC but interesting. Interestingly enough the CMC has it colder earlier for parts of NC. If you saw that energy dig west like the GFS it would be fireworks for someone in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 I'm calling shenanigans on that GEM run. There is no way that a track like that misses the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 72 hour UKIE. We can't ask for much more than this, quite honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The 0z euro at 72 compared to the UK is at 72 from 0z they are not too far off either. I was looking at this this morning. What happened to the big cutter at day 7 on the gfs? Its just gone. It complete looses the energy digging into the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The sounding off the UKMET is a bit warm but it does have a known significant warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well since the models still don't have the SR or LR figured out (surprise) does anyone want to start a storm thread or do we still want to discuss specifics in a winter pattern thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well since the models still don't have the SR or LR figured out (surprise) does anyone want to start a storm thread or do we still want to discuss specifics in a winter pattern thread? I personally dont think we should yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well since the models still don't have the SR or LR figured out (surprise) does anyone want to start a storm thread or do we still want to discuss specifics in a winter pattern thread? Perhaps we should wait for DR. NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Over all this run of the GFS doesn't look bad. Kind of puts these pieces of energy on repeat. It's close to something around 140-160 then doesn't look to far off from the Euro at 192 but the low just goes *POOF* at 204. Good look in the longer range. Decent blocking and a strong PV over SE Canada. Potential lingering in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Well since the models still don't have the SR or LR figured out (surprise) does anyone want to start a storm thread or do we still want to discuss specifics in a winter pattern thread?My vote is no storm thread until within 48 to 72 hours of an event.May the more southern trend score a coup. Not likely but would be nice. As of now, we are still only discussing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 My vote is no storm thread until within 48 to 72 hours of an event. agree 100 percent... 48-60 hours at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 What event? Even with the shift south it's a MA storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Navy model is ukie like as well out to 72 it really digs and has a strong gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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