FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That wave at 120 is screaming through Hudson Bay. Split flow out west, precip breaking out down south earlier. High Pressure in the Rockies and Plains. Strong converging flow in the East, esp. Northeast....been years really since we've seen this setup. Who knows if its modeled right. Hope not. Not a good sign unless you enjoy ice western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter pretty much over mid-Feb. per Larry Cosgrove's hot off of the press weekly newletter: "As stated in the previous section, it would appear that worst part of this winter season is behind us. When you compare the previous winters with a strong resemblance to the 2013-2014 DJF period, you will see a shift in the upper atmosphere away from the vigorous -EPO/-AO/-NAO ridge complexes seen in recent months. Semizonal flow and no high-latitude blocking always favor few cold deviations in the U.S., and the GGEM/ECMWF solution strongly implies much milder readings for most of the lower 48 states for the middle of February into March. This is not to say that someone in the Intermountain Region or Upper Midwest could experience an Arctic intrusion (maybe a rogue snow/ice event)or two. But it is my belief that we are headed toward a fairly warm late February and March. The position of the cAk vortex in the 11 - 5 day period computer forecast is telling: retreat to the farthest reaches of Canada into Alaska. That is a warm teleconnection for those of you living below the Canadian border." Do others here agree or disagree with this forecast? To Larry's credit, he has been mainly cold up til now. well it wouldnt really surprise me (thats why i am hoping for one more winter wx event before then lol). i cant remember the exact dates (yes it was just a coupe of years ago) but it seems like the two back to back awesome winters we had around 2010 came in hard and fast then relaxed by mid february. and seeing foothills post (hey foothills!! glad to see your post it would surprise me even less! esp for the se it can really only stay this cold for so long before it relaxes some...i am just glad the cold plowed in here in early jan for the heart of winter instead of late march for a cold wet spring and a warm jan/feb. i am impressed it has stayed this cold this long again, we had to blah winters after two great ones, and then a pretty good one so far this year (big finale would make it great) and the number of days with singles and below zero in NC has been extreme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The models are really struggling with the split-flow setup, which throws off the timing in the mods on the STJ. If the gfs is on to something with the atlantic pattern, we're going to see a very nice cold air damming setup locked in. it's actually showing a 50/50 look for the first time all year in the atlantic. contingent on this being a trend, a much colder scenario could be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That wave at 120 is screaming through Hudson Bay. Split flow out west, precip breaking out down south earlier. High Pressure in the Rockies and Plains. Strong converging flow in the East, esp. Northeast....been years really since we've seen this setup. Who knows if its modeled right. Hope not. Not a good sign unless you enjoy ice western Carolinas. @171 it's looking downright nasty for folks in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z GFS is a huge mixed bag winter storm. This would probably have it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow, the GFS actually looks snowy for N NC for a significant portion of the storm. At least going off 850s. It would probably be a mixed wintry bag, which would be fun. Sick CAD signature. It's like a more awesome version of December 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just verbatim assuming it has 850's right there would be an inch of ice over pretty much all of NC in the CAD favored regions. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 8-10 inches of snow it looks like in WNC on this run..then it switches over to sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2002 Redux... the Sequel looks to be better? Models have been screaming it... In fact, if that were to verify even by half it'd make 2002 look like a light glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 As Brandon said this could start to trend colder. If that energy can dig a little more it would be good for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just verbatim assuming it has 850's right there would be an inch of ice over pretty much all of NC in the CAD favored regions. Wow. That was not a pretty picture for most in NC The warm March lured you in By the way, the incoming GFS sure is screaming that Arctic wave across the Pole. The NAM was onto something I guess. At 96 hours that vortex is really charging due south. That is bound to do something for the vortex in eastern Canada, which would have a big impact on the surface high eventually. We'll see. The Arctic Highs this year have been something. This one is big again at 1050 or even bigger. Little nervous for NC, SC, VA next Fri/Sat. It did btw....I've got my fingers crossed it's more sleet than zr next Fri/Sat for those in the CAD areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Through 174, the Triad is on the northern fringe. Seems precip is having a hard time making progress north. Pretty dramatic shift here. At least its the 00z and not the 18z. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol after truncation a huge low pops and gives WNC even more snow. HKY is 12 inches plus it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Through 174, the Triad is on the northern fringe. Seems precip is having a hard time making progress north. Pretty dramatic shift here. At least its the 00z and not the 18z. TW We get hammered with a crap ton of snow and ice over the next 24 hours. It would make December 2002 look paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well it wouldnt really surprise me (thats why i am hoping for one more winter wx event before then lol). i cant remember the exact dates (yes it was just a coupe of years ago) but it seems like the two back to back awesome winters we had around 2010 came in hard and fast then relaxed by mid february. and seeing foothills post (hey foothills!! glad to see your post it would surprise me even less! esp for the se it can really only stay this cold for so long before it relaxes some...i am just glad the cold plowed in here in early jan for the heart of winter instead of late march for a cold wet spring and a warm jan/feb. i am impressed it has stayed this cold this long again, we had to blah winters after two great ones, and then a pretty good one so far this year (big finale would make it great) and the number of days with singles and below zero in NC has been extreme! Hey to you too NeGA! Well this is a trend that I personally will root against in my area. Snow, I could care less about, and the 850's don't support that, never really did IMO. But the overall 5H does scream icestorm to me . And now we have seen the 18z NAM pick up on system crossing the Pole that the GFS is doing now..literally charging that vortex into the main PV and that becomes the 50/50 by Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile southwest flow overruns quickly in the Southeast , with the axis of heavy precip oriented from southwest to northeast, just like visions of Dec 2005. Whats more is that this could trend toward an upper low cutoff , I mentioned this earlier today to a colleague, but no models were showing it really. If that happens, this is a multi part Winter storm, with an upper low, possibly even bowling ball type low moving through the Southeast or MidSouth. Too early to say. Already I don't like the looks of the entire setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i'll be honest, this run of the gfs is my dream storm lol. just letting the inner weenie out. a 3 day overrunning event with cad??? you kidding lol? that would be so awesome if this verified for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 i'll be honest, this run of the gfs is my dream storm lol. just letting the inner weenie out. a 3 day overrunning event with cad??? you kidding lol? that would be so awesome if this verified for once. I take it you're betting on a colder setup? That icy look is downright scary to me. Keep it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2002 Redux... the Sequel looks to be better? Models have been screaming it... In fact, if that were to verify even by half it'd make 2002 look like a light glaze. I did't know the Dec 2002 was a miller b.That being said we got all snow from that storm. One thing that was sorta strange was the next year to the date the same thing happened but this time after 4in it turned to rain which stunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I take it you're betting on a colder setup? That icy look is downright scary to me. Keep it away. i dont think the pacific setup favors a lakes cutter. this has miller b written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I did't know the Dec 2002 was a miller b.That being said we got all snow from that storm. One thing that was sorta strange was the next year to the date the same thing happened but this time after 4in it turned to rain which stunk. From case study on Dec 2002 event: "Moisture streamed into North Carolina Wednesday (12/4) lifting over the surface based cold dry air. As frozen and freezing precipitation was falling across central North Carolina, the Wednesday evening surface map revealed a so-called Miller type “B” pattern of cyclogenesis. This pattern is characterized by a CAD wedge separating dual lows i.e, a well inland and a developing secondary coastal low along a commonly shared frontal boundary." Surface Map: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/20021205.06.sus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, just viewed the rest of the run. Wow. This went like I told my colleague earlier today, a total 3 part storm...basically combine 2005 with March 2009 and wham. For NC anyway . I'd say that big high damming down has followed the synoptic rule book to a tee. Watch for wholesale changes on Euro soon. That key is just how super charged the Arctic wave is coming across the Pole. This could evolve into a major Southeast Winter storm, long lived. Rings a bell for me to something along the lines of 2009, with days of rain ahead of a major snowstorm. I can do without any ice, and that 1040 high staying in place and driving northeast winds down here is dangerous looking all the way to near Atlanta. The models never capture true damming right, and this one is a reinforcing, growing CAD shown on GFS atleast. That western system closes off into bowling ball cutoff....cutting through mid South. The Euro was further south, but not as closed. This could easily trend into an incredible Winter storm for many folks, front end, back end and some will be non stop Winter precip. Nightmare to forecasters. But the 5H trends have shown this a while now. I"d bet this evolves into a monster of some type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol after truncation a huge low pops and gives WNC even more snow. HKY is 12 inches plus it looks like. i'll be honest, this run of the gfs is my dream storm lol. just letting the inner weenie out. a 3 day overrunning event with cad??? you kidding lol? that would be so awesome if this verified for once. You like livin' 1800s style there HKY, because Cary would would be a giant unpowered frosty. No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Quick question guys, when you speak of "CAD favored areas" are you including the CAD favored areas of Georgia in this statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'd take the GFS' solution in a heartbeat. There might be massive destruction, but it would be a hell of an experience and something I would definitely never forget. Much of the state would be shut down for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Quick question guys, when you speak of "CAD favored areas" are you including the CAD favored areas of Georgia in this statement? Yes. Robert said could be bad all the way to Atlanta , the models often underestimate the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I just saw the 0z gfs run and all I can say is WOW....Looks like a little bit of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, just viewed the rest of the run. Wow. This went like I told my colleague earlier today, a total 3 part storm...basically combine 2005 with March 2009 and wham. For NC anyway . I'd say that big high damming down has followed the synoptic rule book to a tee. Watch for wholesale changes on Euro soon. That key is just how super charged the Arctic wave is coming across the Pole. This could evolve into a major Southeast Winter storm, long lived. Rings a bell for me to something along the lines of 2009, with days of rain ahead of a major snowstorm. I can do without any ice, and that 1040 high staying in place and driving northeast winds down here is dangerous looking all the way to near Atlanta. The models never capture true damming right, and this one is a reinforcing, growing CAD shown on GFS atleast. That western system closes off into bowling ball cutoff....cutting through mid South. The Euro was further south, but not as closed. This could easily trend into an incredible Winter storm for many folks, front end, back end and some will be non stop Winter precip. Nightmare to forecasters. But the 5H trends have shown this a while now. I"d bet this evolves into a monster of some type. Thanks for posting Robert! Some great disco here tonight with Brandon and Burger and Robert ect. Good stuff guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lesson for today. Nothings set in stone. Good job Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anybody seen the cmc? My maps are stuck at hr81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Charlotte stays below freezing the whole time on the 0z GFS ~1.78 inches of ice. Pretty sure the entire city will be without power if this verifies. crazy/scary run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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