Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I enjoy electricity and heat too much for the 0Z GFS to come true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I enjoy electricity and heat too much for the 0Z GFS to come true... The signs of a CAD have been pretty steady plus/minus a few runs. I feel sure the Euro will have something similiar, with two HP's floating around on the GFS ~ 2/8, I think the CAD areas should be ready for darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CMC looks icy for a bigger part of NC on 2/8...Cad also showing up in upstate SC and possibly parts of N. Ga. EDIT: It turns out to be nasty...A lot of qpf showing up on the 0z CMC EDIT 2: Looks to possibly start of as sn or ip in NC before going to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 0Z GFS appears to leave the bulk of N GA a little above 32 for this entire CAD event fwiw. The 32 does make it to upstate SC. It's all about the column at the time That's the fun of it. I've seen rain turn to ice, seen ice turn to rain, seen it pour rain until 4am, then the column sorts out, and bingo, sleet for inches That's the fun of it, lol. Aren't these storms as depicted too strong for us. Don't we need them to mellow out some, to stop the waa from messing up the party. Plus that's why they are running. Better to have some smaller pulses coming out one right after the other, and keep the wheel spinning. So I'm thinking we want a cutoff ull to spit out energy, rather than the whole thing to come out. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CMC looks icy for a bigger part of NC on 2/8...Cad also showing up in upstate SC and possibly parts of N. Ga. EDIT: It turns out to be nasty...A lot of qpf showing up on the 0z CMC EDIT 2: Looks to possibly start of as sn or ip in NC before going to zr. Kind of like what models were originally hinting at a day or two ago. I don't want a devastating ice storm, but I love weather and winter weather. Anything other than rain is fascinating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro totally different than the GFS, a much slower and weaker eastward progression of the surface high, much less CAD signature. In other words we still have no real clue. But then it gives TN and parts of far north GA and the western Carolinas snow later. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hmm.....interesting! I know which one I am rooting for. Here is part of GSP's long term from the overnight: MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TIMING OF THEONSET OF PRECIP...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF CAD FRIDAY. THE GFSINDICATES THAT A STRONG 1045+ MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE STATESBY FRI NIGHT AND UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIAFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHINGFROM THE SW. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY WEAKER1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NE ON FRI WITHISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP SPREADING OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY ON FRI.THE COLDER GFS SCENARIO HINTS WINERY MIX WILL OCCUR (POSSIBLY A MIXOF SNOW AND SLEET) ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THEWARMER ECMWF SUGGESTS SOLID LIQUID PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUTTHE EVENT. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INHERITED LOW ENDCHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTINGNORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY FRI MORNING AND FRI NIGHT. IF MODELSTREND COLDER ON FRI/SAT...WE MAY ENCOUNTER A SIGNIFICANT WINTERSTORM DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow the 06z GFS is just down right nasty for the CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow the 06z GFS is just down right nasty for the CAD areas. What is really impressive, is even with the big time inland runner the 6z GFS shows, it still shows an epic ice storm for parts of SE. Hope 00z EURO is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hmm.....interesting! I know which one I am rooting for. Here is part of GSP's long term from the overnight: MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF CAD FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THAT A STRONG 1045+ MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE STATES BY FRI NIGHT AND UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SW. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY WEAKER 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NE ON FRI WITH ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP SPREADING OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY ON FRI. THE COLDER GFS SCENARIO HINTS WINERY MIX WILL OCCUR (POSSIBLY A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET) ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE WARMER ECMWF SUGGESTS SOLID LIQUID PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTING NORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY FRI MORNING AND FRI NIGHT. IF MODELS TREND COLDER ON FRI/SAT...WE MAY ENCOUNTER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. I'm hoping the gfs has had the better track record this winter. was the gfs the one that picked up on this last storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm hoping the gfs has had the better track record this winter. was the gfs the one that picked up on this last storm? No Euro picked it up first. It then lost it and then the GFS came on board, then the Euro came back on board. Pretty much like now but this setup is a little more tricky. Last one we had all the cold air we wanted to work with. This one is going to depend on the southern wave and high pressure to our north if it can get locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the 850 temps are at or below 0C @ KAVL with 2M temps at or below 32F for most of the event next weekend. (per MeteoStar) They do rise above those temps then fall back below. Would this be a snow to rain back to snow depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 No Euro picked it up first. It then lost it and then the GFS came on board, then the Euro came back on board. Pretty much like now but this setup is a little more tricky. Last one we had all the cold air we wanted to work with. This one is going to depend on the southern wave and high pressure to our north if it can get locked in. well I guess its good in a way we don't have to much cold air, it seems to push the storm to far south, maybe with the colder air just to our north the storm will tap in to the colder air giving us mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks for posting Don. Just getting a chance to look at the meto output for KFQD off the 6 GFS850's around 0 as the moisture comes in around HR168 and until HR 174, my location remains below 32 with .26". Then quick rise in temp to 42 at HR 174 (.55" total for that time stamp) then back down to below 32 at HR 177 then the temp rises again. Talk about a roller coaster off the 6 gfs run. When GSP is looking, it is a good thing! Total would be 1.6" for the system as shown on this one run. Hmm.....interesting! I know which one I am rooting for. Here is part of GSP's long term from the overnight: MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TIMING OF THEONSET OF PRECIP...AND THE MAGNITUDE OF CAD FRIDAY. THE GFSINDICATES THAT A STRONG 1045+ MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NE STATESBY FRI NIGHT AND UPGLIDE MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIAFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHINGFROM THE SW. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT RELATIVELY WEAKER1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NE ON FRI WITHISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP SPREADING OVER THE AREA BY MIDDAY ON FRI.THE COLDER GFS SCENARIO HINTS WINERY MIX WILL OCCUR (POSSIBLY A MIXOF SNOW AND SLEET) ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THEWARMER ECMWF SUGGESTS SOLID LIQUID PRECIP WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUTTHE EVENT. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE INHERITED LOW ENDCHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTINGNORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR EARLY FRI MORNING AND FRI NIGHT. IF MODELSTREND COLDER ON FRI/SAT...WE MAY ENCOUNTER A SIGNIFICANT WINTERSTORM DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks for posting Don. Just getting a chance to look at the meto output for KFQD off the 6 GFS 850's around 0 as the moisture comes in around HR168 and until HR 174, my location remains below 32 with .26". Then quick rise in temp to 42 at HR 174 (.55" total for that time stamp) then back down to below 32 at HR 177 then the temp rises again. Talk about a roller coaster off the 6 gfs run. When GSP is looking, it is a good thing! Total would be 1.6" for the system as shown on this one run. I have a feeling it's going to be another interesting week of model watching for the weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Definitely interesting and been on my radar for a few days. GGEM and 6z GFS are nasty for many in typical CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That 06Z image at hour 174 is quite ominous, but awesome!! Nice 1042 mb High over NE, isobars buckling down the eastern side of the Apps, classic CAD signature! Oh, and I'm still confused about NCHighCountryWx. His response to mine and NCSnow's questions was a little less than illuminating. I think it raised more questions than it answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This is confusing. Are you an organization? Yes, an organization of multiple personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ugh, hope we can get enough cold air pulled down to have Sn instead of zr. I love staying warmish while watching my TV and computer and that only happens when I have power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Soundings are useless at this range. There is no way to nail down who will see the freezing rain as opposed to sleet/snow. Just looking at the big picture it would suggest mostly a freezing rain and sleet scenario possibly beginning as snow for the favored CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Would rather have the Euro which is a Mille B day 8-9 that redevelops off NC coast gives a nice snow event up through the MA, deepens to 980'ish. Been a long time since we have seen a SLP that deep off the Nc coast on a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gotta say it... The Euro looks very Jan 96'ish with the SE ridge pulling out. Keep that trend up, the s/w can dive farther SE and pull a monster Miller A out of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Soundings are useless at this range. There is no way to nail down who will see the freezing rain as opposed to sleet/snow. Just looking at the big picture it would suggest mostly a freezing rain and sleet scenario possibly beginning as snow for the favored CAD areas. CAD, the GFS and CMC take the low west of the Apps, intact, the best I can tell. It seems like the strength of the wedge would influence the primary to die, with secondary development along the coast somewhere. Is that a wrong conclusion, or are the models maybe either not seeing the strength of the wedging well or perhaps the track of the primary cuts too far west to be influenced by the wedge? HP does appear to scoot out, allowing the precip to turn to rain, verbatim...not that it will actually work out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 That 06Z image at hour 174 is quite ominous, but awesome!! Nice 1042 mb High over NE, isobars buckling down the eastern side of the Apps, classic CAD signature! Oh, and I'm still confused about NCHighCountryWx. His response to mine and NCSnow's questions was a little less than illuminating. I think it raised more questions than it answered. Just an obs about that map above, it looks just like the flow/ moisture transport from TX from the 2005 ice storm. I remember watching the radar and the trajectory and strength looke the same as above. Just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 6z GFS also weakens the SE ridge and allows the moisture to cut east faster and pop a weak LP over the SE. The pacific pattern does not teleconnect to a SE ridge.. I expect it to further weaken. Hopefully we end up with a Miller A sitting in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Gotta say it... The Euro looks very Jan 96'ish with the SE ridge pulling out. Keep that trend up, the s/w can dive farther SE and pull a monster Miller A out of the GOM. Your saying in the day 11-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Your saying in the day 11-15? Referring to the Feb 8-9 storm... it needs to dig SE a bit more to spawn a Miller A. A stronger PNA ridge would help out there. Euro at 192 Jan 7, '96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 January 7th, 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow, I think Robert's Facebook posts this morning lend credence to what you are seeing, as well: late week pattern will confuse models. Strong confluence holds in East, big High holds, overrunning locks in low lev cold and N.winds And 5H confluence Northeast, and closed ridge Yukon/Alaska cud open door for cutoff moving more south than shown next weekend. 12z may catch That 500mb height chart you posted for 1/96 looks eerily similar to this current setup. Nice find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like we need a Feb 8-9 thread. Then again, why jinx ourselves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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