BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How many times this winter has the SE ridge been as strong as the models predicted? Zero? Why start buying into it now? Models have looked torchy in the medium to LR almost all winter but don't verify. Patience friends. yeah but we headed into February so it's going to happen for real, before too much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anytime anyone makes a comment based on one model run, they should make that disclaimer. The only thing that has changed since yesterday is what the computer says. If it says something different than yesterday we should probably wait until we have some run to run and day to day consistency before starting to draw conclusions for the LR. Even then, caution is advised. It is very funny watching emotions go up and down like a rollercoaster or and old mood ring with every model run. The good news for me is, if winter ended today, it would be hard for me to complain. Double my annual snowfall and a truly cold January. 3 nights in the single digits and about 10 nights in the teens. Several days below freezing. Not a bad January for central Georgia! I'm still in a bit of a snow drought. I have not had an inch of snow on the ground this year. Three trace events and this weeks .3 inch monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here is the 12z GFS at 240 (top) and 300 (bottom). H5 is on the left and the surface map is on the right. It's really not worth much to post these images, but they illustrate a couple of things: You can see ridging building in across Greenland (shown in blue) at 240 with the big PV still sitting up in central Canada. It's not a snowstorm pattern for us with the PV where it is, but it's not one that can't create some wintry weather opportunities either. You can see the STJ is active as well. There will be energy available to create precipitation opportunities. The black line roughly indicates the storm track and the 850 freezing line, particularly over the SE. At 300, there is an ok -NAO signal (shown in blue) and the PV has become elongated and displaced to the east. A SE ridge signal is still present, but it is weak and displaced well east. You can see high pressure across the northern tier of the US. It is during this time that a weak system could scoot far enough south from west to east to bring some wintry precipitation arcoss the area. To me, this is the best signal on the GFS for such an event. Eventually, the weak -NAO breaks down, and the trough off the NW coast that you see at 300 becomes better established...again, not a good winter pattern for the SE. Obviously, the model will change with the next run. But this is a good example of how variable the pattern is as well as the type of look that we want to see before becoming too bullish on a winter storm. A PV in central Canada, a SE ridge, a trough on the west coast or off the NW coast, and a fast flow across Greenland are strong signals against a winter storm. Should these become dominate features, the odds of a winter storm are greatly reduced for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yeah but we headed into February so it's going to happen for real, before too much longer. This times a billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like what the Euro does after day 8, ridging in the west, that h5 low finally ejects, heading east, curious what happens day 9. Need to beat down the SE ridge some, but looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 To put things in perspective regarding what may or may not happen and for a bit of entertainment looked at the last 7 days from Meteostar 6z for Gainesville, GA; top line is the date of the run; left column is the date; data is the high temperature for the day. High/Low temps; precipitation; everything varies every day including 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z on the same day. if I can figure out an easier way to get the data will try to do some other recent comparisons to show how they lined up with actuals. I like what Don Sutherland has been saying about the upcoming patterns and analogs for Feb; in fact 2 weeks ago he talked about a brief warmup in the beginning of Feb then potential for action; we're seeing some signs of the warmup although it's still not clear how far North it will go; the further SE you are the worse it looks for snow/cold in the beginning; but then it may change for the better. SE ridge has been forecasted since last year; it's continually been beat back at least above Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro does look much better day 9, nice h5 vort digging down to the gulf, looks neutral tilt, big tall PNA ridge in the west, big HP building in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 After day 9 never goes negative tilt, had it did it would have been a big weenie snow run for the SE up through through the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 After day 9 never goes negative tilt, had it did it would have been a big weenie snow run for the SE up through through the MA. Lots of cold up in Canada, which has been a staple of this winter. That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lots of cold up in Canada, which has been a staple of this winter. That's good. I bet there is some weenie ensemble members on the Euro, the 12z GEFS members were not good, but as my post pointed out yesterday the GFS at day 8/9 will change, a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Also, like what the Euro OP is trying to do day 9/10, trying build ridging in the west, don't the big PNA but a slight one would be nice. Also, like what the Euro is trying to do with the Feb 9/10 potential now more than what it was trying 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I bet there is some weenie ensemble members on the Euro, the 12z GEFS members were not good, but as my post pointed out yesterday the GFS at day 8/9 will change, a lot. Probably are. The trough remained to positively tilted to spin up a big dog. Is there any precip at all? If so, it looks like it would be cold enough. Big time cold at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Also, like what the Euro OP is trying to do day 9/10, trying build ridging in the west, don't the big PNA but a slight one would be nice. Also, like what the Euro is trying to do with the Feb 9/10 potential now more than what it was trying 2 days ago. Strongly agree with that. But we're still at day 10, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Strongly agree with that. But we're still at day 10, lol! Well, the signals were there for the snow we just had 10 days out. Maybe this will work out, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well, the signals were there for the snow we just had 10 days out. Maybe this will work out, too. Actually if we look back at gfs around 360 it showed storm we just had. I believe the day was off one day though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Actually if we look back at gfs around 360 it showed storm we just had. I believe the day was off one day though It also went back and forth from bad to good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yeah but we headed into February so it's going to happen for real, before too much longer. I'm still waiting on the big warm up from last February/March (2013) I kid of course - a little. It's hard to believe we're still having the same discussions about upcoming torches after the last 6-7 months of waiting on them. Let's get an actual, genuine, true warm up that verifies first. At least then I'll be able to take it more seriously. Here's your shot SE ridge. Impress me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm still waiting on the big warm up from last February/March (2013) I kid of course - a little. It's hard to believe we're still having the same discussions about upcoming torches after the last 6-7 months of waiting on them. Let's get an actual, genuine, true warm up that verifies first. At least then I'll be able to take it more seriously. Here's your shot SE ridge. Impress me. That's the good thing...it doesn't look like the SE ridge stays too intense for too long (though even a weak one can screw up the storm track if other variables exist) and there's no signal for any torching. As long as we avoid that, we can at least keep the thread and the needle out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Update on Friday 12z ECMWF Our analysis of the last few days model runs concerning the flexing of the ridge in the SE, is that todays 12z ECMWF is on the right path indicating that the winter frozen precipitation activity will indeed be focused well north and west of North Carolina. Let's watch the pattern together and have some fun seeing how February plays out and if it has a winter storm surprise in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 12Z Euro, its ensembles and the GFS ensembles still point to a CAD event. Snow for any of us looks quite unlikely at this point looking at trends and current runs. An ice event still is very much on the table, but probably not as far south as ATL, a bit better chance in far NE GA and upstate SC, but a decent chance in NC, good chance in VA. That is my current take for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Maybe we just need a break next week for everything to reset and give us another shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm still waiting on the big warm up from last February/March (2013) I kid of course - a little. It's hard to believe we're still having the same discussions about upcoming torches after the last 6-7 months of waiting on them. Let's get an actual, genuine, true warm up that verifies first. At least then I'll be able to take it more seriously. Here's your shot SE ridge. Impress me. Couldn't agree more, Bevo. Update on Friday 12z ECMWF Our analysis of the last few days model runs concerning the flexing of the ridge in the SE, is that todays 12z ECMWF is on the right path indicating that the winter frozen precipitation activity will indeed be focused well north and west of North Carolina. Let's watch the pattern together and have some fun seeing how February plays out and if it has a winter storm surprise in store for us. To whom does the word our refer? Is it a company you run, for instance, or are you speaking for the board, as a whole? Also, how do your second and third sentence jive? If all frozen precipitation is going to be north and west of NC, then how would there be a winter storm surprise for us? I don't follow. Maybe we just need a break next week for everything to reset and give us another shot. Oh! Are you implying that the skies need to heal, Brick? Because that's definitely how I interpret the crux of your post. The 12Z Euro, its ensembles and the GFS ensembles still point to a CAD event. Snow for any of us looks quite unlikely at this point looking at trends and current runs. An ice event still is very much on the table, but probably not as far south as ATL, a bit better chance in far NE GA and upstate SC, but a decent chance in NC, good chance in VA. That is my current take for late next week. Good analysis, Cheez. Lot's of signals still there for potential fun and games next week. I am obviously in one of the areas more prone to CAD events, so I continue to watch the developments eagerly. While the GFS operational didn't do us any favors, there are still subtle hints in the ensembles pointing to a possible icy event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Robert on WXsouth if you watch his video from last night says winter is just getting ready to start in the southeast that after a brief warm up the storm track is going further south with plenty of cold air to the north to tap in to and that we're in for some winter weather. He explains it on his video what will happen at least in his opinion and more times than not in the past Robert has a great track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Robert on WXsouth if you watch his video from last night says winter is just getting ready to start in the southeast that after a brief warm up the storm track is going further south with plenty of cold air to the north to tap in to and that we're in for some winter weather. He explains it on his video what will happen at least in his opinion and more times than not in the past Robert has a great track record.His tweets today from this morning have backed off and he says wintry for TN,KY, VA and points north. Someone has posted them in banter , I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'm with Robert, he nailed my area he was dead on. As for the models they flip and flop like a fish!!! Some of us have a lot of winter left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 His tweets today from this morning have backed off and he says wintry for TN,KY, VA and points north. Someone has posted them in banter , I believe His video was discussing the progression of the month, he never mentions any specific disturbance I don't believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not going to do a PBP but the 18z GFS does look different at hour 165 compared to the same time period on the 12z. Looks like the low is quit a bit more south (S. Arizona compared with Nevada before). Have no idea if this will translate to a better run, but well know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18Z GFS has a significant CAD set up in North Carolina again. That high to the north is strong and the moisture is certainly not lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 18Z GFS has a significant CAD set up in North Carolina again. That high to the north is strong and the moisture is certainly not lacking. Yea, it has subfreezing temperature’s driving all the way to the AL/GA border at 1pm Saturday while precip is falling over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Update on Friday 12z ECMWF Our analysis of the last few days model runs concerning the flexing of the ridge in the SE, is that todays 12z ECMWF is on the right path indicating that the winter frozen precipitation activity will indeed be focused well north and west of North Carolina. Let's watch the pattern together and have some fun seeing how February plays out and if it has a winter storm surprise in store for us. Sorry but who is "our"? Is this the NWS, Rays weather center, you and some buddies? Just curious, Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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