Pilotwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We all know the pattern 10 days away storm then take away @ 7to days bring it back @ 3days. Has anyone done any research to see if the 10day forecast is more accurate then the 7 day forecast or closer to verification for winter time. Just look @ the new runs of the Nam and we can see that it's bring back Monday Tuesday storm now when all had been lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We all know the pattern 10 days away storm then take away @ 7to days bring it back @ 3days. Has anyone done any research to see if the 10day forecast is more accurate then the 7 day forecast or closer to verification for winter time. Just look @ the new runs of the Nam and we can see that it's bring back Monday Tuesday storm now when all had been lost. That's true, too. The past event looked like it was going away, too, only to come back a couple of days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's more of the fact that the folks on the board discuss what the most current data shows rather than being bipolar. We're generally not putting out forecasts as much as we are discussing patterns and models. Since the data changes, it's natural that the discussion changes. Nothing wrong with that. I'm not suggesting we cancel the rest of the winter. I think we go through a bit of a relaxation, maybe even a warmer period, and then we have another decent period before the window closes for the season. As Burger said, I was a little more optimistic for the medium range last week. But not because of the CFS directly. The trends of late have been predominately indicating a SE ridge. Now, it seems we have support for that from the operationals, and even more importantly, from the Euro ensembles. Someone correct me if I'm wrong about that. All of that, in addition to the indexes trending badly and the -EPO relaxing, decreases my confidence of cold in the medium range. But the good thing is, the pattern has been variable this winter. The SE ridge hasn't been permanent. The -EPO has had amazing persistence. And the models/ensembles have frequently changed direction. Given that, there's no reason to throw in the towel. And now, we have an active split flow pattern. This will provide more opportunities for the perfect timing, thread the needle scenario. So all is not lost. But I'm not going to sit here and be bullish on a wall to wall cold and wintry February, when the data clearly doesn't support it....at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I am thinking around V-day we will get there, although the ground is hard as rock. I thought that was the point of putting out the pre-emergent so it's there before the crabgrass germinates? I have a degree in Turfgrass Management so you've found the right person. You want to put out the Pre-emergent when germination takes place before the grass plant EMERGES from the ground. Pre emergent is strong enough to infiltrate/kill a weak seedling but not a mature plant. If you put pre-emergent on seeds that have yet to germinate, the pesticide will just wash through your soil. Hope this helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What we may very well see in Feb. is a more volatile, up and down weather pattern for the month. SE ridge may flex a little more and warm us up and then the PV pushes south some and cools us off. That is much more typical of winter in the SE. January has not been typical. I am WAY below normal temps wise and about 3.5 inches of snow. A little more ridge (not a lot) may provide a little more SW flow from the gulf and a little more moisture. Storms may be a little more potent. We (especially I) may just be on the warm side of most. However, the way things have been this winter, I would not rule out another good winter storm or two for the SE. Of course todays models that are again leading to doom and gloom and sunglasses and pre-emergent may be as good as LR models have been all winter. It would be very easy for us to go back and find posts from late December saying winter is over the LR models and indices are terrible. Or look at this month where folks were saying that we will never get anything good out of this pattern. The models have been terrible in the LR and the PNA, NAO, and AO have not controlled our weather. It would probably be wise to not put too much stock in any of them this season. I would, however, have to lean toward a little more SE ridge and a little more up and down than we have seen in January. Don't think a torch is in store, but it is hard to see February as cold as January has been. This winter would be historic if it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOL, CR and I are just discussing what the global models are showing day 10+, maybe they are all wrong and they flip, or maybe they are right and we have a warm Feb or maybe they are right for days 10-15 and than we turn colder. The event next weekend is a long shot but so is every winter storm around here, still on the table though. I know one thing, we keep these wild temperature swings up then March is going to be a pretty rough month for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's more of the fact that the folks on the board discuss what the most current data shows rather than being bipolar. We're generally not putting out forecasts as much as we are discussing patterns and models. Since the data changes, it's natural that the discussion changes. Nothing wrong with that. I'm not suggesting we cancel the rest of the winter. I think we go through a bit of a relaxation, maybe even a warmer period, and then we have another decent period before the window closes for the season. As Burger said, I was a little more optimistic for the medium range last week. But not because of the CFS directly. The trends of late have been predominately indicating a SE ridge. Now, it seems we have support for that from the operationals, and even more importantly, from the Euro ensembles. Someone correct me if I'm wrong about that. All of that, in addition to the indexes trending badly and the -EPO relaxing, decreases my confidence of cold in the medium range. But the good thing is, the pattern has been variable this winter. The SE ridge hasn't been permanent. The -EPO has had amazing persistence. And the models/ensembles have frequently changed direction. Given that, there's no reason to throw in the towel. And now, we have an active split flow pattern. This will provide more opportunities for the perfect timing, thread the needle scenario. So all is not lost. But I'm not going to sit here and be bullish on a wall to wall cold and wintry February, when the data clearly doesn't support it....at least for now. The EPO has really impressed me this year. As others have stated it seems to be the primary player. I think it has saved us from a warm winter. At this point I'm going to try to only focus 10 days out at a time. Everything after that is just a (educational) guess. Just looking at the 6z GFS, the next 10 days could have some interesting winter events. **even this Tuesday may be a nice little surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, we need to worry about this one first. Doesn't seem to be much talk about it. Considering the border line temps presented by both GFS, NAM and with thier bias taken into consideration... nothing to worry about from my area south into RDU. S VA looks to be where the R/S/S line is most probable to occur. Its just going to turn out into another cold rain event for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man, is that storm ever going to come out of the west on the 12z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the border line temps presented by both GFS, NAM and with thier bias taken into consideration... nothing to worry about from my area south into RDU. S VA looks to be where the R/S/S line is most probable to occur. Its just going to turn out into another cold rain event for the most part. I wouldn't be so sure....often the bias is to under estimate the cold air. I will say, it looks pretty icy for the Triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GFS is interesting day 7-8, develops this giant cutoff over Oregon, which gives the MW snowstorm for days and than gives KS/OK/nTx a big snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man, is that storm ever going to come out of the west on the 12z GFS? Nope...It has to wait until after truncation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man, is that storm ever going to come out of the west on the 12z GFS? Nope, not as big as the cut off gets with a 1045+ to the east of it, no where to go. Crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thought it was a better run though, the HP doesn't slide east as fast, need a piece of energy to come out to get under that HP, lots of options on the table still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 At 216 the hp slides off the coast and our system is getting ready to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not much talk about next week's system around the 8th. Does it look like anything now? Snow? Ice? Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Rain- as modeled today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not much talk about next week's system around the 8th. Does it look like anything now? Snow? Ice? Rain? It finally brings LP from the western trough and cuts it to the Lakes after day 8. As such, there is no winter weather to speak of verbatim from this morning's GFS concerning this particular system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like things have took a big swing since yesterday! I thought yesterday we were headed for a February of a life time with all the talk from Mets and others? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 14m Snow northern TN, KY to central VA early week, Looking Icy in Texas to Tenn late week. #tnwx #kywx #vawx WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m Classic overrunning #ice #snow in Lower Plains from #txwx #okwx to #arwx #kywx #tnwx Strong High in place, low level cold air and precip. I notice NC is missing for these tweets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think we have been talking about this since december.. jan and feb looked torchy to begin with then the models broke down and went cold.. the beginning of the winter there was a western trough and a se ridge which was hitting the arklatexs and going to wastern tennesee and kentucky on up that way.. so if the pattern repeats its self then its about to with more storms rounding the trough in texas and cutting west of the apps... the talk was late jan looked to be the best potential and it turned out to be.. so this wasn't suppose to be a come back winter at any aspect.. be lucky we got the cold and snow that we did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Rain- as modeled today If it's not going to be snow, then that's what I'd rather have. Ice can stay away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like things have took a big swing since yesterday! I thought yesterday we were headed for a February of a life time with all the talk from Mets and others? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 14m Snow northern TN, KY to central VA early week, Looking Icy in Texas to Tenn late week. #tnwx #kywx #vawx WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m Classic overrunning #ice #snow in Lower Plains from #txwx #okwx to #arwx #kywx #tnwx Strong High in place, low level cold air and precip. I notice NC is missing for these tweets! That is not the image in my mind's eye when I hear the phrase "storm track sinking south". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like things have took a big swing since yesterday! I thought yesterday we were headed for a February of a life time with all the talk from Mets and others? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 14m Snow northern TN, KY to central VA early week, Looking Icy in Texas to Tenn late week. #tnwx #kywx #vawx WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m Classic overrunning #ice #snow in Lower Plains from #txwx #okwx to #arwx #kywx #tnwx Strong High in place, low level cold air and precip. I notice NC is missing for these tweets! This! Those tweets are a complete 180 from what was being talked about yesterday, funny. I think that happened a few weeks ago with the last outbreak or polarvortex 2 . There was talk of cross polar flow and highs bridging over Siberia only to back off a day or two later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like things have took a big swing since yesterday! I thought yesterday we were headed for a February of a life time with all the talk from Mets and others? WXSOUTH @WxSouth 14m Snow northern TN, KY to central VA early week, Looking Icy in Texas to Tenn late week. #tnwx #kywx #vawx WXSOUTH @WxSouth 2m Classic overrunning #ice #snow in Lower Plains from #txwx #okwx to #arwx #kywx #tnwx Strong High in place, low level cold air and precip. I notice NC is missing for these tweets! Yep yesterday February looked like from all I read and heard was going to be an historic month winter wise and today no mention of that just mention of no storm next weekend and warm, can't quite figure this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Funny how quick things can change. February might not turn out to be as great as people thought just yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 How many times this winter has the SE ridge been as strong as the models predicted? Zero? Why start buying into it now? Models have looked torchy in the medium to LR almost all winter but don't verify. Patience friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I wouldn't worry too much.. The pattern as stated before is in a repeating cycle. Its been looking good expect for the last few runs as far as cold and storms. Which we all know the models as a whole been horrible this year. It is most likely the modeling. We all know for exp too that these so called long periods of torching have yet to verify completely. But it still looks cold in the extended period and see no reasoning for cliff diving yet. If anything people should stop putting some much emphasis on the soap opera runs every 6 hours and 250+ hours out. You will find yourself in much better shape mentally if you focus on this week instead of what some damn computer says for week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just for informational purposes the 12z cmc was way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Welp, I'm pretty satisfied with the snowfall totals I got from last storm. It resetted the counter of having no accumulating snow for 3 years. If we don't have anymore winter storms, I won't be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Anytime anyone makes a comment based on one model run, they should make that disclaimer. The only thing that has changed since yesterday is what the computer says. If it says something different than yesterday we should probably wait until we have some run to run and day to day consistency before starting to draw conclusions for the LR. Even then, caution is advised. It is very funny watching emotions go up and down like a rollercoaster or and old mood ring with every model run. The good news for me is, if winter ended today, it would be hard for me to complain. Double my annual snowfall and a truly cold January. 3 nights in the single digits and about 10 nights in the teens. Several days below freezing. Not a bad January for central Georgia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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