WXinCanton Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z GFS takes the late week threat through northern Indiana and moves the HP out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My concern for the late-week system is what seems to be a relentless problem for Winter wx fans around here the past several years.....the high pressure escaping out to sea and not anchoring in place. I feel that is the most likely thing to go awry late next week if you are wanting winter weather. But we will see. Tons will change between now and then. Also, for Monday morning.... 6z NAM is interesting in northern NC as others mentioned. In fact, you could make an argument that 0.5" to 0.7" of liquid eqiv. fall as sleet in GSO through 2pm Monday based on BUFKIT soundings. GFS is a touch warmer, but not a whole lot. Yeah, this might be the ice storm we need to pay attention too, versus the other one, at least in N. NC!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro ENS day 10+ say winter is pretty much over, super warm. They have been showing this for several runs was thinking/hoping it was a blip but they have been consistent. CMC ENS agree with Euro, GEFS although not as bad aren't great. Maybe they all flip in the next couple of days. I wouldn't sweat anything beyond 10 days. In all honesty, our pattern is bound to relax for a bit anyway!! It's just the law of averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As Robert and others have said look at the bigger picture and not the fine details yet. We have all the pieces in place it's just timing and placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gr8fuldawg95 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 There was a nasty ice storm in February 1979. Thankfully it was mostly ice pellets in metro Atlanta (4.2" at KATL; 4.5" at my home then in Douglasville), but down around Macon and Americus it was a major freezing rain/ ice event....think even areas near Savannah got in on the ice. It was the most significant February winter storm I've ever witnessed in Georgia, and due to the makeup of the precip....it didn't melt in shady spots for 9-10 days (the storm was on a Saturday into Sunday morning; schools were closed the entire next week). I remember that. It was BAD! We were driving from FL back to DC and made it to Hardeeville, SC. We saw cars running off into ditches. We even saw a truck do a 360 right in front of us and jack-knife. The DOT closed I-95 and we spent the night there in SC and turned around the next day and went back to Miami for another week. It was a disaster a;long the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still don't like the look for next weekend's storm. Any low at the base of the western trough is bound to move NE into the plains/TN Valley before reaching the SE. The GFS looks more realistic to me than the EURO. Agreed. Doesn't look like this one is going to work out for NC & south outside of the mountains. TN Valley to DC to NE. I liked last nights Euro. It looked to me like it was trying to take more of a Miller A path but cut north too early. I would not be surprised at all if this afternoon or tonight's run showed something really close to a Miller A with a widespread winter storm across the SE. Yeah, we would hope for the high to trend stronger so it's inevitably overdone and not slide out as Matthew was saying. Ensembles are worse, unfortunately. Maybe the euro isn't seeing it right, but I think it has a decent idea as of now...not seeing anything to really make it a SE snowstorm. KCLT 12z ens mean: 4", OP = 12", 8 members over 8". OP not supported by ensembles. 00z ens mean: 2.4", OP = less than 3", 3 members over 8". OP supported by ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I am not super excited about a widespread major winter storm on Feb 8-9 after seeing the guidance this morning. The same problems that have plagued us all year with these types of storms continue to exist. The map below is the 6z GFS at 192 (top) and 216 (bottom). At 192, you can see the energy out in the northwest Atlantic is in a nice location, acting as a pseudo 50/50, placing confluence in an ideal spot to allow high pressure to build down the eastern seaboard. At 216, the energy is lifting north and east and changing its orientation. This effectively allows the confluence zone to leave the interior northeast US and move off into the Atlantic which, in turn, allows high pressure to slide out into the ocean -- a recurring theme this year. NO GOOD. Of course, the system cuts. The SE Ridge is going to want to allow any incoming system to cut NE. Any interaction with the northern stream which allows the storm to wind up is going to influence the system to lift NE. The lack of a -NAO is going to allow the energy in the NW Atlantic to continue to slide NE, breaking down High Pressure, allowing our storm to lift NE. And this has been our main problem all year -- the lack of blocking. No blocking allows the confluece zone to quickly move NE, which allows high pressure to remain transient, which means a cutting system, when the SE ridge is present, which means you need perfect timing, or you get a brief front-end mix or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, this might be the ice storm we need to pay attention too, versus the other one, at least in N. NC!!12 NAM looks interesting at least out to hour 66. It would be king of funny if this ends up being the worse of the two potentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Here's the Euro for the same storm. I've used the Euro panels at 168 (top) and 192 (bottom) to show a similar evolution as the GFS. The Euro has a much stronger PV sitting in central Canada. As energy flows around the PV, it translates east (often this creates a low over the GL region that interferes with cold air transport). As you can see, as indicated by the Green 1, at 168, the energy is, much like the GFS shows, in a good position to establish confluence over the interior NE US, allowing high pressure to build in. But look where it is at 192...way out in the Atlantic. The confluence zone moves east and high pressure moves out. The Euro looks colder to me for the storm than the GFS, which would indicate a better potential for more frozen precip, but again, even this depiction would probably limit the duration and geographical coverage. Things could trend better, no doubt. But without blocking and with the SE ridge present, we will need a faster ejection of the SW system or a slower migration of the energy in the NE. I'm not tremendously optimistic about it. This still bears watching, of course, but we're back to a perfect timing thing. Even so, parts of the SE are definitely in the game for some frozen, even if it's on the front end, especially the NW parts. As has been mentioned, the system next week has the *potential* to surprise some folks in northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12 NAM looks like N. NC could get something wintery for this Tuesdays event. Definitely colder; looks like snow in the NW and maybe sleet over towards central NC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/12/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cold rain. You lost me at gfs op hour 192 and 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As far as the LR goes, it looks pretty much like a grease fire on top of a dumpster fire to me. The AO, PNA, and NAO are getting worse by the day, and the trends on the CFS are not good. It sounds like the ensembles don't look too hot either. The one thing I can point to is that warm-ups have been less than modeled and we haven't had to rely on the main indexes to deliver cold. Regardless, we've only had one significant storm in this pattern. But several mets are beating the drum for a cold and stormy Feb. We have an active STJ, sure, but the look on the operational models to me indicates systems moving over or north of us or Miller Bs. That's not the best signal IMO. Below is the 240 GFS (awful) and Euro (ok), the latest daily CFS prog for Feb (terrible), and the CPC index chart (abysmal). Edit: For some reason, the maps uploaded in reverse order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cold rain. You lost me at gfs op hour 192 and 216. Work on those ensembles, will ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Nam looks to have trended colder from the 6z run atleast for my area. The warm nose is weaker and thinner. Still looks to be a rain > sleet/snow. Warm nose at its warmest showing 1 to 2 c which is 33-35 and about 50mb thick(1200 ft) towards the end. Its close close one can almost say if the precip came down hard enough all snow at the end between hours 72 and 75 finishing up between 81 and 84. SREF plumes show roughly half inch of snow but liable to be sleet/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Work on those ensembles, will ya? Awesome posts! Sums it up great. Need to go purchase some crabgrass pre-emergent in the next week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Awesome posts! Sums it up great. Need to go purchase some crabgrass pre-emergent in the next week or so nope. Crabgrass will not germinate until ground temps are 55 or above, still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 nope. Crabgrass will not germinate until ground temps are 55 or above, still have time. I am thinking around V-day we will get there, although the ground is hard as rock. I thought that was the point of putting out the pre-emergent so it's there before the crabgrass germinates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That threat next week looks interesting... If it continues to show up, it will be time for a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z Nam looks to have trended colder from the 6z run atleast for my area. The warm nose is weaker and thinner. Still looks to be a rain > sleet/snow. Warm nose at its warmest showing 1 to 2 c which is 33-35 and about 50mb thick(1200 ft) towards the end. Its close close one can almost say if the precip came down hard enough all snow at the end between hours 72 and 75 finishing up between 81 and 84. SREF plumes show roughly half inch of snow but liable to be sleet/snow Think it would be all sleet down towards me. Here is the 12 NAM snow cover, which as others have stated includes sleet. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/01/31/12/NAM_221_2014013112_F81_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As far as the LR goes, it looks pretty much like a grease fire on top of a dumpster fire to me. The AO, PNA, and NAO are getting worse by the day, and the trends on the CFS are not good. It sounds like the ensembles don't look too hot either. The one thing I can point to is that warm-ups have been less than modeled and we haven't had to rely on the main indexes to deliver cold. Regardless, we've only had one significant storm in this pattern. But several mets are beating the drum for a cold and stormy Feb. We have an active STJ, sure, but the look on the operational models to me indicates systems moving over or north of us or Miller Bs. That's not the best signal IMO. Below is the 240 GFS (awful) and Euro (ok), the latest daily CFS prog for Feb (terrible), and the CPC index chart (abysmal). Edit: For some reason, the maps uploaded in reverse order. Just a week ago you were very optimistic Feb. was going to be cold and stormy because of the CFS prog. Next week it might change again. I'm not disputing anything you're saying and they are def. valid points. Like others have pointed out law of averages says we probably turn seasonal to warm this month but then again this hasn't been a normal winter. Last nights runs painted a very blah picture. Almost every LR model has been garbage by trying to switch things up only to fall back in line with a repeat. Models seem to for the most part lock on to storms, lose them and then lock back on. That's why I think over the next week there is still going to be fun and games to be had. We shall see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just a week ago you we're very optimistic Feb. was going to be cold and stormy because of the CFS prog. Next week it might change again. I'm not disputing anything you're saying and they are def. valid points. Like others have pointed out law of averages says we probably turn seasonal to warm this month but then again this hasn't been a normal winter. Last nights runs painted a very blah picture. Almost every LR model has been garbage by trying to switch things up only to fall back in line with a repeat. Models seem to for the most part lock on to storms, lose them and then lock back on. That's why I think over the next week there is still going to be fun and games to be had. We shall see though. Just a DAY ago this board was painting a very cold, stormy Feb. I look today, and some are saying we need to start putting out crabgrass pre-emergent?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Work on those ensembles, will ya? put on the shades and close the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 As far as the LR goes, it looks pretty much like a grease fire on top of a dumpster fire to me. The AO, PNA, and NAO are getting worse by the day, and the trends on the CFS are not good. It sounds like the ensembles don't look too hot either. The one thing I can point to is that warm-ups have been less than modeled and we haven't had to rely on the main indexes to deliver cold. Regardless, we've only had one significant storm in this pattern. But several mets are beating the drum for a cold and stormy Feb. We have an active STJ, sure, but the look on the operational models to me indicates systems moving over or north of us or Miller Bs. That's not the best signal IMO. Below is the 240 GFS (awful) and Euro (ok), the latest daily CFS prog for Feb (terrible), and the CPC index chart (abysmal). Edit: For some reason, the maps uploaded in reverse order. that CFS V2 is exactly what the weather bells Feb forecast temperature wise lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro ensembles have backed off on a storm next weekend. Seems some members have lost it. A weaker storm might be better for us. That has been a trend this year for models to have big storms at this range only to back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just a DAY ago this board was painting a very cold, stormy Feb. I look today, and some are saying we need to start putting out crabgrass pre-emergent?? The board is bipolar. Maybe that's what makes it so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The board is bipolar. Maybe that's what makes it so much fun. LOL, CR and I are just discussing what the global models are showing day 10+, maybe they are all wrong and they flip, or maybe they are right and we have a warm Feb or maybe they are right for days 10-15 and than we turn colder. The event next weekend is a long shot but so is every winter storm around here, still on the table though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would have to agree that the models look bad and the teleconnectons look very bad as well. At this point I think were done. I dont know where the cold and stormy predictions are coming from. I hope they're right...but at this point my best hope is next years weak Nino and blocking at some point combining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I would have to agree that the models look bad and the teleconnectons look very bad as well. At this point I think were done. I dont know where the cold and stormy predictions are coming from. I hope they're right...but at this point my best hope is next years weak Nino and blocking at some point combining. Getting off to a rough start for Feb when lows are tracking north of Ohio, NY and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Think it would be all sleet down towards me. Here is the 12 NAM snow cover, which as others have stated includes sleet. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/01/31/12/NAM_221_2014013112_F81_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Using the same site with the soundings. Its going to be extremely close towards me even. N raleigh appears to be mostly rain which a change over to sleet at the end. BTW don't know your exact location. Guess its Jordan lake above N Raleigh. So you area maybe pretty close to the sounding. Hours before and hour 75 rain http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2014013112_F72_36.0000N_78.5000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2014013112_F75_36.0000N_78.5000W.png Hour 78 precip still falling sleety but border line http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2014013112_F78_36.0000N_78.5000W.png GFS is still warmer. Considering both has their bias... my location I would say more than likely rain here and south. South central VA north looks game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12 NAM looks like N. NC could get something wintery for this Tuesdays event. Definitely colder; looks like snow in the NW and maybe sleet over towards central NC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/nam/12/nam_namer_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Yeah, we need to worry about this one first. Doesn't seem to be much talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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