rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I will say the stj looks to be very active after next weekend. We are either going to have a lot of rain or a lot of winter storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This map is 210 and the previous one shown was 222. No doubt that 12 hours after the above time, the precip would likely be lifting n and e. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That run was an absolute mess. Not buying the GFS either. Let's see if the Euro is biting on the cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This map is 210 and the previous one shown was 222. No doubt that 12 hours after the above time, the precip would likely be lifting n and e. TW I said "The euro is not out yet. i can assure you that the 12z euro shows winter precip for the southeast. " Not It was sunny and 50s at hour 210. And what Joe is saying defies logic. CAA would be showing up after the system lifts. Winter precip is there, so why focus on the temperature after? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Let's see if the Euro is biting on the cutter idea. From what I recall, the Euro brings the storm in a day earlier. I guess that's why it shows more measurable frozen precip, it gets here before the High lifts and the storm can't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I said "The euro is not out yet. i can assure you that the 12z euro shows winter precip for the southeast. " Not It was sunny and 50s at hour 210. And what Joe is saying defies logic. CAA would be showing up after the system lifts. Winter precip is there, so why focus on the temperature after? We're on the same page. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're on the same page. TW I do hope we see a good ice storm. Those are pretty...until the power goes out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 If this is a stalled front situation with waves riding along the front, it will be extremely hard to pinpoint timing , even a day or three out, much less nine days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 CMC looks icy for traditional cad areas on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fwiw, it still looks like there's some ZR in upsate SC into NC and it is delayed some to later 2/8 into early 2/9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ensemble mean faster but with a lot of spread. A long way to go in this one. There will be a lot more gyrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 CMC has the 2/8 storm but warmer. It has the high sliding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really hope we don't get back into the pattern of cold , then warm and rain, then cold , like most of December . That's not fun for winter weather lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I really hope this cold isn't wasted because if it is, I'd rather it be warm so I can walk in the city again without freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Prelim. Euro maps through 120: there likely will be a storm 2/7-9. Stay tuned to this BB for more details as they become available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro still has a potential ice event, but farther north. No ice here (good) but the Carolinas look to get some on this run, (especially NC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 GA & SC look a lot safer from ice on this event just looking at the 32 line. A couple close places in the mid 30's though... if the op Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is a I-40 ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I couldn't agree more with you and totally disagree with Calculus. So, they're looking at bogus clown maps and saying ATL is going to get a huge snow when in fact the model isn't giving ATL any snow!! Wow!!! What good can come from this when these ignorant people see these BS clown maps? It is tricky enough even for us knowledgeable people! A misinformation mess in the making. I had 11 friends on Facebook message or post on my timeline yesterday wanting to know when the big snowstorm would hit. I'm like snowstorm? With 850 mb temps 5-10 c? I don't think so. Think I made a couple of them mad by saying it looked more like freezing rain to cold rain to me (LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Aren't ice storms in Feb in Atlanta extremely rare ? It seems like almost all of Atlantas ice storms are in Dec or Jan. Can't remember the last time there was a feb ice storm in atl. There was a nasty ice storm in February 1979. Thankfully it was mostly ice pellets in metro Atlanta (4.2" at KATL; 4.5" at my home then in Douglasville), but down around Macon and Americus it was a major freezing rain/ ice event....think even areas near Savannah got in on the ice. It was the most significant February winter storm I've ever witnessed in Georgia, and due to the makeup of the precip....it didn't melt in shady spots for 9-10 days (the storm was on a Saturday into Sunday morning; schools were closed the entire next week). Also don't forget....on February 9-10, 1973 a historic snow and ice storm struck middle and south Georgia, as well as portions of Alabama and the Carolinas. 16" inches of wet snow in Macon, 17" at Columbia, and 14" at Columbus and Augusta; it missed Atlanta but my cousins in Macon still talk about it to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 06z NAM is potentially pretty darn nice from Mt Airy back towards Boone and across SW VA/TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I liked last nights Euro. It looked to me like it was trying to take more of a Miller A path but cut north too early. I would not be surprised at all if this afternoon or tonight's run showed something really close to a Miller A with a widespread winter storm across the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro ENS day 10+ say winter is pretty much over, super warm. They have been showing this for several runs was thinking/hoping it was a blip but they have been consistent. CMC ENS agree with Euro, GEFS although not as bad aren't great. Maybe they all flip in the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro ENS day 10+ say winter is pretty much over, super warm. They have been showing this for several runs was thinking/hoping it was a blip but they have been consistent. Just because day 10 is warm doesn't mean winter is over. If there is one consistent thing about this winter it is brief warm spells followed by intense cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still don't like the look for next weekend's storm. Any low at the base of the western trough is bound to move NE into the plains/TN Valley before reaching the SE. The GFS looks more realistic to me than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just because day 10 is warm doesn't mean winter is over. If there is one consistent thing about this winter it is brief warm spells followed by intense cold. Yep, the end of Feb could always get cold. Surprised the -EPO is taking such a long break per the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I still don't like the look for next weekend's storm. Any low at the base of the western trough is bound to move NE into the plains/TN Valley before reaching the SE. The GFS looks more realistic to me than the EURO. I agree with the you, seems like this should be cutting and giving Chicago a big snow event, this is a record snowfall year for them seems like this will add onto it. The Euro and it's Ens are trying to get the storm east though. Will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just because day 10 is warm doesn't mean winter is over. If there is one consistent thing about this winter it is brief warm spells followed by intense cold.exactly its been doing this for the past three months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 exactly its been doing this for the past three months. I agree, I remember when GFS showed a mega torch for Jan and it was wrong. But this is the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My concern for the late-week system is what seems to be a relentless problem for Winter wx fans around here the past several years.....the high pressure escaping out to sea and not anchoring in place. I feel that is the most likely thing to go awry late next week if you are wanting winter weather. But we will see. Tons will change between now and then. Also, for Monday morning.... 6z NAM is interesting in northern NC as others mentioned. In fact, you could make an argument that 0.5" to 0.7" of liquid eqiv. fall as sleet in GSO through 2pm Monday based on BUFKIT soundings. GFS is a touch warmer, but not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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